tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32047376343657587992024-03-14T02:21:28.561+00:00betting with Skeeve+688 points profit (11.7% ROI, 757% ROC) in fourteen consecutive profitable seasons (more than 1600 picks)skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-10891624800015469352018-07-31T00:24:00.000+01:002018-07-31T00:24:13.255+01:00timeAs you might have noticed, the new National League season starts in a few days. As you also might have noticed, there have been no new posts on this blog since March. As much as I don't like it, I guess it's become obvious that I can't find enough time for the blog and - as far as motivation is concerned - it's not like I can remember when was the last time that I had someone's comment here on the blog, which doesn't make the whole experience as interactive as I would like it to be, but I can always join twitter, can't I?<br />
<br />
Circumstances change though and it's quite possible that I'll return to regular blogging in a few days, months or years, which is why I won't delete the blog, but I don't see much sense in posting monthly reviews when my clients are already getting updates on a weekly basis (I update the website on the weekly basis as well) during the season and I obviously can't find the time for other articles on betting at this point. Things are obviously different if you're a client - I've recently sent all clients a ten-page report based on the survey I conducted this summer and I've also just finished writing a rather detailed intro e-mail to the 2018/19 season, which I'll be sending to all clients on August 1.<br />
<br />
Instead of writing a new post about <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/09/nine-and-half-years.html" target="_blank">ten years of proofing my selections to Secret Betting Club</a></b>, I've prepared some very nice one-off discounts for <b><a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/" target="_blank">SBC</a></b> members (maybe I'll write another post on the topic in March 2019, when it will be eleven years of proofing my bets to SBC). If you want to take a look at the 2017/18 season review, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks at gmail dot com) and I'll send you the review - that much I'm willing to share with non-clients.<br />
<br />
In other news, I'll be introducing an additional "VIP" service this season (for instance, I'll be sharing my in-play selections for the first time) - if you want to know more, you can always join my waiting list (by sending me an e-mail). If enough people who are already on the waiting list decide not to join the service after all, you might even get an invitation to join before the first 2018/19 selections.<br />
<br />
I really don't think of this as my final goodbye to blogging - I think of it as another break. In the meantime, there are still some excellent bloggers out there such as <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Cassini</a></b> - for example, take a look at this recent <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2018/07/william-hill.html" target="_blank">hillarious post</a></b>.<br />
<br />
I'll be back.<br />
<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-34346891748986427442018-03-15T21:59:00.000+00:002018-03-15T21:59:26.786+00:00February 2018 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZKj1uKBMNJU/Wqriz23UbEI/AAAAAAAAAP8/iRzqd2Cp2uoU5MBUPxLqvars3OiND-h5QCLcBGAs/s1600/blog_feb2018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="197" data-original-width="784" height="80" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZKj1uKBMNJU/Wqriz23UbEI/AAAAAAAAAP8/iRzqd2Cp2uoU5MBUPxLqvars3OiND-h5QCLcBGAs/s320/blog_feb2018.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">3/2 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Ebbsfleet (1.44 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+1.76)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">3/2 NL: Torquay - BARROW (2.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">10/2 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Halifax (1.40 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (-2)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">10/2 NL: Ebbsfleet - SOLIHULL (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:0 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">17/2 NL: (0) ALDERSHOT - Macclesfield (1.48 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (-4)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">17/2 NL: Chester - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (-4)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">17/2 NL: Boreham Wood - GATESHEAD (4.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:1 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">24/2 NL: Maidstone - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 2:3 (+2.6)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><br /></span>
8 picks<br />
23 points staked<br />
2-0-6<br />
-8.64 points loss<br />
-37.6% ROI<br />
-17.3% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 50 points)<br />
<br />
A rare horror month with as many as six of the eight bets failing miserably for a -8.64 point loss and featuring the worst losing run (twelve points lost in only eight days) since early 2015, but to be honest, a poor month (or, if you want, a "correction") was probably long overdue (it was only the third losing month since March 2015) - the ROI for the season was absolutely ridiculous (and unattainable in the long run) in early February.<br />
<br />
On a brighter note, I've recently won another couple of <b><a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/" target="_blank">Secret Betting Club</a></b> awards as I've been voted both the second best tipster and the second best sports tipster in 2017 by SBC members. Thanks to everyone who voted!<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-062fwFO8c8o/Wqrq1hhnMcI/AAAAAAAAAQI/qtyKcNTJ3TkSzowyyoQ7yqM-JE--y9FcgCLcBGAs/s1600/Best_Overall_Silver.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="60" data-original-width="468" height="41" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-062fwFO8c8o/Wqrq1hhnMcI/AAAAAAAAAQI/qtyKcNTJ3TkSzowyyoQ7yqM-JE--y9FcgCLcBGAs/s320/Best_Overall_Silver.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bILNpcNgZ9Q/Wqrq8UOqkkI/AAAAAAAAAQM/3MHkG-ickgYCR6K9N7laKxYH63_rYbgUwCLcBGAs/s1600/Best_Sports_Silver.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="60" data-original-width="468" height="41" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bILNpcNgZ9Q/Wqrq8UOqkkI/AAAAAAAAAQM/3MHkG-ickgYCR6K9N7laKxYH63_rYbgUwCLcBGAs/s320/Best_Sports_Silver.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
It's now exactly <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/09/nine-and-half-years.html" target="_blank">ten years</a></b> since I've started proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club, but more on that in my next blog post.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-87175031200460745182018-02-05T21:57:00.000+00:002018-02-05T21:57:35.871+00:00January 2018 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gu5KQX_pHgo/Wni8y2YiwdI/AAAAAAAAAPc/jomVogVbbHMRFDX4iBt4ra-S6UxxqrMEACLcBGAs/s1600/blog_jan2018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="171" data-original-width="781" height="70" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gu5KQX_pHgo/Wni8y2YiwdI/AAAAAAAAAPc/jomVogVbbHMRFDX4iBt4ra-S6UxxqrMEACLcBGAs/s320/blog_jan2018.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">6/1 NL: (0) WREXHAM - Torquay (1.33 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.32)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">13/1 NL: Woking - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.42 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+1.68)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">20/1 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Maidenhead (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:2 (+1.16)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">20/1 NL: Maidstone - EASTLEIGH (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.03)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">20/1 NL: Torquay - BROMLEY (2.71 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:4 (+1.71)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">27/1 NL: Ebbsfleet - BOREHAM WOOD (2.61 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+1.61)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">27/1 NL: Leyton Orient - ALDERSHOT (2.57 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+1.57)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><br /></span>7 picks<br />
16 points staked<br />
7-0-0<br />
+11.08 points profit<br />
69.3% ROI<br />
22.2% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 50 points)<br />
<br />
A perfect month with seven out of seven, including as many as four outsider bets. I can only hope for another perfect month some time in 2019, because I doubt it could happen twice in a year.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NXl9oAFZeA4/Wni-t2OGHQI/AAAAAAAAAPo/MxfXrHu7CmQV55q9dSPH9S6gNXROEZr8wCLcBGAs/s1600/blog_topsevenfinish.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="335" data-original-width="1236" height="86" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NXl9oAFZeA4/Wni-t2OGHQI/AAAAAAAAAPo/MxfXrHu7CmQV55q9dSPH9S6gNXROEZr8wCLcBGAs/s320/blog_topsevenfinish.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Btw I've also advised a couple of unofficial long-term bets before I returned to the official picks in mid-October, but I wasn't able to take the bets myself (and neither were most of my clients, unfortunately) as they were (and still are) only available with BetVictor, Skybet and Betway, so not exactly the most winners-friendly bookmakers out there. I know that some of my clients managed to take the bets though (not for as much as they wanted, but still) and I'm glad they did. Anyway, both long-term bets were in the "top seven finish" market - starting with this season, there's a new six-team play-off system in the National League. The first bet was Aldershot (to finish in the top seven), advised on September 23. The best odds were 1.73 with Skybet (1.67 with Betway, 1.57 with BetVictor) and anything better than 1.40 looked great to me back then - they're only 1.13 now with both Skybet and Betway (1.10 with BetVictor). The second bet was Wrexham (to finish in the top seven), advised on October 7. The best odds were 2.75 with BetVictor (2.50 with Betway, 2.38 with Skybet) and anything better than 2.20 looked great to me back then - they're only 1.22 now with Betway (1.20 with Skybet, 1.17 with BetVictor).<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-80662981270454998572018-01-23T23:39:00.001+00:002018-01-24T20:30:09.140+00:002017 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8QhDyLSfvtY/WmUWV9NpI-I/AAAAAAAAAN8/DGK23s5k8DY08x_pll0IEZLvRjgohz7qgCLcBGAs/s1600/blog_2017_review.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="759" data-original-width="785" height="309" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8QhDyLSfvtY/WmUWV9NpI-I/AAAAAAAAAN8/DGK23s5k8DY08x_pll0IEZLvRjgohz7qgCLcBGAs/s320/blog_2017_review.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3ZlaEOB-nOg/WmfEUZSra4I/AAAAAAAAAOo/9GmyiisK-NEa93ZLRlqnT2estYDV1KCDQCEwYBhgL/s1600/blog_2017_review_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="348" height="192" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3ZlaEOB-nOg/WmfEUZSra4I/AAAAAAAAAOo/9GmyiisK-NEa93ZLRlqnT2estYDV1KCDQCEwYBhgL/s200/blog_2017_review_2.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10pt;">2017 was another excellent year here at Skeeve Picks. The
official profit of +25.09 points at a 20.7% ROI and a 43.1% ROC means it was
the best year in terms of ROC since 2011 and the best year in terms of ROI
since 2009 (!), but as always, there were ways of achieving even better
results. For instance, the results based on closing odds (+26.17 points profit
at a 21.6% ROI and a 45.2% ROC) have once again outperformed the official
results and most of us (myself included, of course) are now using a forty-point
bank instead of the officially recommended fifty-point bank.</span></div>
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<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Only one of the eight "active" months in 2017
failed to produce some profit - that was May with it's one play-off bet that
failed miserably. The other seven months were all profitable, the best of which
by far was April with nine of the ten bets landing (+13.35 points profit at a
39.3% ROI). There were 25 "active" weekends in 2017, 18 of which were
profitable, and the worst losing run was only -4.8 points (February 18 -
February 25).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xTMGG_Y2voQ/WmfFPxUAxZI/AAAAAAAAAOw/RSOunyx-nIolYe4zfzt-u5tXzY_J-VOVwCEwYBhgL/s1600/blog_2017_review_3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="336" height="200" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xTMGG_Y2voQ/WmfFPxUAxZI/AAAAAAAAAOw/RSOunyx-nIolYe4zfzt-u5tXzY_J-VOVwCEwYBhgL/s200/blog_2017_review_3.jpg" width="188" /></a></div>
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<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">The asian handicap bets produced +18.02 points profit at a
17.7% ROI (at recorded odds) in 2017 and it's great to see all seven types of
asian handicap bets I'm currently advising in profit since the summer of 2013.
I'll write a lot more about the asian handicap bets, both over the course of
the current season and in the last five years, in the 2017/18 season review.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10pt; text-align: center;">The bets on outsiders had another excellent year as well -
that's +7.07 points profit at a 37.2% ROI, but as you can see, the bets on away
outsiders are doing much, much better than the bets on home outsiders, which is
why there were no bets on home outsiders so far this season (since May) and I'd
need to see plenty of value indeed to advise an official outsider bet on a home
team in the 2nd half of the current (2017/18) season. Since I've first started
advising the bets on outsiders in 2015 (at one-point flat stakes during the 2nd
half of the season and at half-a-point flat stakes during the 1st half of the
season, so in October, November and December), 70 picks produced +25.67 points
profit at a 41.4% ROI (the outsider bets were only advised as unofficial picks
in early 2015, before the start of the 2015/16 season, and as official picks
ever since). I'll write a lot more about the bets on outsiders in the 2017/18
season review as well.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10pt; text-align: center;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TShf0xwE5UA/WmfF_8Q7KdI/AAAAAAAAAO8/qZ0_P73_X3olyVY5nsIsvM1w3RgMJCSvgCEwYBhgL/s1600/blog_2017_review_4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="151" data-original-width="354" height="85" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TShf0xwE5UA/WmfF_8Q7KdI/AAAAAAAAAO8/qZ0_P73_X3olyVY5nsIsvM1w3RgMJCSvgCEwYBhgL/s200/blog_2017_review_4.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">As I have some clients who can only take the main asian
handicap bets and also some clients who can only take the straight home/away
win bets, I've decided to check out the results I would've achieved if I'd been
taking all bets as one-point flat-stake main asian handicap bets (half-a-point
flat-stake in October, November and December) and also as one-point flat-stake
straight home/away win bets (half-a-point flat-stake in October, November and
December) since I've made the latest set of key adjustments to the service in
the summer of 2015. The results are very interesting indeed - as far as 2017 is
concerned, the main asian handicap bets (recorded at closing odds) would've
produced +9.32 points profit at a 20.9% ROI, which is quite similar to the
official ROI (20.7% at recorded odds, 21.6% at closing odds), but the straight
home/away win bets (also recorded at closing odds) would've done significantly
better with +16.22 points profit at a 36.4% ROI, mostly due to some successful big-priced
outsiders. However, 2017 isn't exactly a one-off as the straight home/away win
bets would've made +34.7 points profit in the last two and a half years, at a
37.3% ROI and with the worst losing run of only -4.89 points (February 18 -
March 11, 2017), which is why, in theory, a twenty-point bank should be more
than enough. The main asian handicaps would've made +20.33 points profit in the
last two and a half years, at a 21.9% ROI and with the worst losing run of only
-3.63 points (February 25 - March 11, 2017), which is why, in theory, a fifteen-point
bank should be more than enough. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8FSEwDJGp_A/WmfGw7cUVlI/AAAAAAAAAPI/ymeYHrHLzwg7XxEloR8wk-8JSEBUmBdnACLcBGAs/s1600/blog_2017_review_5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="624" height="72" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8FSEwDJGp_A/WmfGw7cUVlI/AAAAAAAAAPI/ymeYHrHLzwg7XxEloR8wk-8JSEBUmBdnACLcBGAs/s320/blog_2017_review_5.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">As I've only mentioned these alternative ways
of taking the bets shortly before the start of the current (2017/18) season for
the first time (and only because I found out about clients who are taking these
kinds of bets instead of the official bets), I can't officially recommend
taking these bets instead of (unless you have to) or in addition to the
official picks, but I'll take a closer look at both main asian handicaps and
straight home/away win bets in the summer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Anyway, there's plenty to look forward to, both in 2018 and
in the years to come, and it's good to know that there's many alternative ways
of following these picks if you can't take (some of) the official bets or are
more comfortable with some other method. As far as I'm concerned, I'll continue
to both take these bets exactly as I advise them and use a forty-point bank.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="HR" style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Btw if you're wondering how on earth did the results based on
closing odds outperform the results based on recorded odds (not only in 2017,
but for quite a few consecutive years), let me point you to a couple of blog (<a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/02/closingkick-off-odds-part-one.html">http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/02/closingkick-off-odds-part-one.html</a>)
posts (<a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/04/april-fools-day-odds.html">http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/04/april-fools-day-odds.html</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-55462274990117671152018-01-12T23:10:00.000+00:002018-01-12T23:11:04.691+00:00December 2017 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mq-de-kf8bg/Wlk0TDzA8HI/AAAAAAAAANc/03oCkU-HH8k-VCXPUefmzVSNcf-8xjxxACLcBGAs/s1600/blog_dec2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="164" data-original-width="771" height="68" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mq-de-kf8bg/Wlk0TDzA8HI/AAAAAAAAANc/03oCkU-HH8k-VCXPUefmzVSNcf-8xjxxACLcBGAs/s320/blog_dec2017.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS</b>:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">2/12 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Maidenhead (1.60 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 2:0 (+1.2)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">2/12 NL: Halifax - BARROW (2.57 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (+0.785)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">9/12 NL: (-0.5) ALDERSHOT - Halifax (1.50 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (-2)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">9/12 NL: Eastleigh - BROMLEY (3.28 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:4 (-0.5)</span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">23/12 NL: Bromley - (0) MACCLESFIELD (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">23/12 NL: Woking - BARROW (2.50 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 1:2 (+0.75)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><br /></span>
6 picks<br />
7.5 points staked<br />
3-1-2<br />
+0.235 point profit<br />
3.1% ROI<br />
0.5% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 50 points)<br />
<br />
I'm not sure why I'm keeping the advised bank at fifty points when I'm both using a forty-point bank myself and "unofficially recommending" it to everyone who asks, but I'm not going to change it in the middle of the campaign - I've only changed the official recommendation from sixty to fifty points in the summer, but I'd have to go on a horrible losing run not to change it to forty points (officially, unofficially, superficially and extraficially) after the current season ends and I take a closer look at the results in the last three seasons or, if you want, since I've made the latest key adjustments to the service in the summer of 2015.<br />
<br />
Anyway, December 2017 was another profitable month - barely, but still. The outsider bets were one goal short of a perfect 3/3 record in December and produced a +1.035 point profit, but the asian handicap bets on favorites had a mixed month with one win, one loss and one void and produced a -0.8 point loss. As I was in red going into the last active weekend in December, there will once again be no complaints from yours truly.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aU-QTRPEgwg/Wlk_1rBD4CI/AAAAAAAAANs/iEAu0N54xsEUaTXSM0mQ4kYsR7kDTygHQCLcBGAs/s1600/blog_2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="286" data-original-width="227" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aU-QTRPEgwg/Wlk_1rBD4CI/AAAAAAAAANs/iEAu0N54xsEUaTXSM0mQ4kYsR7kDTygHQCLcBGAs/s200/blog_2017.jpg" width="158" /></a></div>
<br />
2017 turned out to be an amazing year (the best ROC since 2011 and the best ROI since 2009!), but more on that in my next post. I was far from being the busiest blogger in 2017 and I'll be far from being the busiest blogger in 2018, but I should probably try and write a couple of posts per month that aren't monthly reviews. The actual work obviously comes first, but I'll do my best to find a bit more time for the old blog in 2018.<br />
<br />
I'm very late, but Happy New Year, everybody! :)<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-958855045346448572017-12-02T14:28:00.001+00:002017-12-02T14:29:06.539+00:00November 2017 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LGgqFtOCqps/WiKwUShtFkI/AAAAAAAAAM4/4IGlQeqXG70FByGyUTyVoEN7Oed-J37sgCLcBGAs/s1600/blog_nov2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="140" data-original-width="746" height="60" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LGgqFtOCqps/WiKwUShtFkI/AAAAAAAAAM4/4IGlQeqXG70FByGyUTyVoEN7Oed-J37sgCLcBGAs/s320/blog_nov2017.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">11/11 NL: Torquay - (0) MAIDSTONE (1.68 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.36)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">18/11 NL: (-0.5) SUTTON - Halifax (1.55 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 3:2 (+1.1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">18/11 NL: Leyton Orient - DOVER (2.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 points FT 1:1 (-0.5)</span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">25/11 NL: Solihull - (0) GATESHEAD (1.65 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">25/11 NL: Tranmere - MAIDSTONE (5.07 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:0 (-0.5)</span><br />
<br />
5 picks<br />
7 points staked<br />
2-1-2<br />
+1.46 points profit<br />
20.8% ROI<br />
2.9% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 50 points)<br />
<br />
Another profitable month with two of the three two-point asian handicap bets landing (the remaining one was void) - unfortunately, both half-a-point bets on outsiders failed miserably, but as you probably know by now, you won't hear me complain after a 20% ROI month.<br />
<br />
I can't help but notice the amazing performance of the away draw-no-bets since I've made the latest adjustments to the service back in the summer of 2015. Here's how the away draw-no-bets or, if you want, the (0) asian handicap bets on away teams performed in the last couple of years, since the start of the 2015/16 season:<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">
<br /><span style="color: blue;">
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0
(+/-0)<br />
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4
points FT 1:1 (+/-0)</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><br />
<span style="background: white;"><span style="color: #38761d;">24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM
(1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0
(-4)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points
FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><span style="background: white;">13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN
(1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)<br />
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @Dafabet) 4 points
FT 0:1 (+3.8)<br />
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT
0:1 (+2.24)<br />
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points
FT 0:1 (+1.4)<br />
4.2.2017. NL: Maidstone - (0) ALDERSHOT (1.67 @Pinnacle) 4 points
FT 0:2 (+2.68) </span><br />
</span><span style="background: white;"><span style="color: #38761d;">11.2.2017. NL: Southport - (0) DAG & RED
(1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:4 (+2.04)<br />
18.2.2017. NL: Eastleigh - (0) TRANMERE (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points
FT 0:2 (+2.2)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">
4.3.2017. NL: Aldershot - (0) LINCOLN (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT
0:0 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: #38761d;">
1.4.2017. NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT
0:2 (+1.96)<br />
8.4.2017. NL: Chester - (0) YORK (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2
(+2.24)<br />
22.4.2017. NL: Wrexham - (0) DAG & RED (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points
FT 0:1 (+2.04)<br />
11.11.2017. NL: Torquay - (0) MAIDSTONE (1.68 @Pinnacle) 2 points
FT 0:1 (+1.36)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">
25.11.2017. NL: Solihull - (0) GATESHEAD (1.65 @Pinnacle) 2 points
FT 1:1 (+/-0)</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b>
18 picks<br />
66 points staked<br />
12-5-1<br />
+22.96 points profit<br />
34.8% ROI<br />
(average odds: 1.65)<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-27460983184684124932017-11-17T13:22:00.000+00:002017-11-17T13:22:57.394+00:002017 so far + pre-mail/recorded/closing odds<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SsRT-sYTkQ4/Wg7bgyzKHQI/AAAAAAAAAMo/sIrYcJ-1EKsAZyPHE3qXeVNMC8-A-s3QwCLcBGAs/s1600/2017_so_far.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="242" height="169" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SsRT-sYTkQ4/Wg7bgyzKHQI/AAAAAAAAAMo/sIrYcJ-1EKsAZyPHE3qXeVNMC8-A-s3QwCLcBGAs/s200/2017_so_far.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
2017 has definitely been an excellent year so far - the best since at least 2013.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>2017 SO FAR (recorded odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
41 picks</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
108.5 points staked</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
25-2-14</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+24.755 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
22.8% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
42.4% ROC</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Here are the 2017 results based on pre-mail (those available just before I send the pick, so at 10:29 AM UK time on Saturday), recorded (those recorded with a sixty-second delay) and closing (those available just before the kick-off) odds, either with Pinnacle, SBO or Dafabet:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>2017 SO FAR:</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
41 picks</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
108.5 points staked</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>2017 SO FAR (pre-mail odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+30.745 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
28.3% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>2017 SO FAR (recorded odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+24.755 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
22.8% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>2017 SO FAR (closing odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+25.76 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
23.7% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There's a couple of blog posts on the topic of my pre-mail/recorded/closing odds <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/02/closingkick-off-odds-part-one.html" target="_blank">here</a></b> and <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/04/april-fools-day-odds.html" target="_blank">here</a></b>.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I've also updated the results based on pre-mail/recorded/closing odds since the beginning of the 2010/11 season (which is when I started archiving all of the pre-mail/recorded/closing odds):</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>SINCE 2010/11:</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
650 picks</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
2016.5 points staked</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>SINCE 2010/11 (pre-mail odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+237.34 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
11.8% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>SINCE 2010/11 (recorded odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+182.6 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
9.1% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>SINCE 2010/11 (closing odds):</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
+165.23 points profit</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
8.2% ROI</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
All of these picks have obviously been proofed to third parties - to Secret Betting Club (since March 2008, so all of them), to Joseph Buchdahl's SportsTipsters (from August 2012 until it's closure in June 2015) and to BetRush (since October 2016).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-38006202866448533722017-10-29T19:28:00.000+00:002017-10-29T19:28:40.635+00:00October 2017 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZBamodH6U8k/WfXuxLe8stI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/06TLC1b49-M0po-1Xub6CXrdENof8eRRQCLcBGAs/s1600/blog_oct2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="65" data-original-width="771" height="25" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZBamodH6U8k/WfXuxLe8stI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/06TLC1b49-M0po-1Xub6CXrdENof8eRRQCLcBGAs/s320/blog_oct2017.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS</b>:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">21/10 NL: Leyton Orient - MACCLESFIELD (2.99 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (+0.995)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">28/10 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Halifax (1.53 @Pinnacle, SBO, Dafabet) 2 points FT 4:2 (+1.06)</span><br />
<br />
2 picks<br />
2.5 points staked<br />
2-0-0<br />
+2.055 points profit<br />
82.2% ROI<br />
4.1% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 50 points)<br />
<br />
A perfect start to the 2017/18 season as both the half-a-point outsider bet on Macclesfield last weekend and the two-point odds-on bet on Tranmere this weekend landed for +2.055 points profit in October. As you might know, I won't be returning to the usual stakes (four points per asian handicap odds-on bet, one point per outsider bet) before January, so it's another couple of months of 50% smaller stakes before the traditionally super-profitable 2nd half of the season (January-May).<br />
<br />
I've recently found out that some of my clients can only take the main asian handicap bets, while others can only take the straight home/away win bets, so I've started recording these odds and results as well and I've done a test to see what would've happened if I'd been taking all of my bets as one-point flat-stake main asian handicap bets (half-a-point flat stakes in October, November and December) and as one-point flat-stake home/away win bets (half-a-point flat stakes in October, November and December) in the past two years (based on closing odds), including two picks from this month (based on recorded odds, those available sixty seconds after I send the pick).<br />
<br />
<b><u>2015/16 + 2016/17 + 2017/18 SO FAR</u></b><br />
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL RESULTS:</b><br />
100 picks<br />
240.5 points staked<br />
+52.39 points profit<br />
21.8% ROI<br />
(worst losing run: -8.4)<br />
(advised bank: 50 points)<br />
<br />
<b>MAIN ASIAN HANDICAPS:</b><br />
100 picks<br />
87.5 points staked<br />
+19.06 points profit<br />
21.8% ROI<br />
(worst losing run: -3.33)<br />
(advised bank: 15 points)<br />
<br />
<b>STRAIGHT HOME/AWAY WINS:</b><br />
100 picks<br />
87.5 points staked<br />
+34.41 points profit<br />
39.3% ROI<br />
(worst losing run: -4.89)<br />
(advised bank: 20 points)<br />
<br />
It's a small sample of only 100 picks and it's been a couple of excellent campaigns (I've discussed these results in more detail with my clients), but it will be interesting to see how these bets do over the next couple of years.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-49513710708954106282017-09-14T21:56:00.000+01:002017-09-14T22:03:16.596+01:00nine and a half yearsIt will be ten years of proofing my bets to <b><a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/" target="_blank">Secret Betting Club</a></b> in March next year, which is another nice milestone (so feel free to expect a follow-up post in half a year). The SBC have just published their latest Tipster Profit Report - here's how my service is currently rated:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VXN-hY1Zvcs/Wbrk3d4E85I/AAAAAAAAALQ/Wa-PBjEHnQwz30Vg_OWrZPzvdUeyQu8vACLcBGAs/s1600/2017SeptemberSBC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="576" height="268" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VXN-hY1Zvcs/Wbrk3d4E85I/AAAAAAAAALQ/Wa-PBjEHnQwz30Vg_OWrZPzvdUeyQu8vACLcBGAs/s320/2017SeptemberSBC.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b><u>SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (September 2017)</u></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Here's how my service was rated in SBC's very first Tipster Profit Report, back in May 2011:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lGrp_6MR39Y/WbrsKgT1_XI/AAAAAAAAAL0/mfhixiw94soVr2yNeIPk42D0nb1wKD8dACLcBGAs/s1600/2011MaySBC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="309" data-original-width="580" height="170" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lGrp_6MR39Y/WbrsKgT1_XI/AAAAAAAAAL0/mfhixiw94soVr2yNeIPk42D0nb1wKD8dACLcBGAs/s320/2011MaySBC.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b> <u>SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (May 2011)</u></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I've stumbled upon an excellent interview with <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Cassini</a></b> over at <b><a href="https://twitter.com/statsbet/status/907923006860791808" target="_blank">@statsbet</a></b>. There's been a lot of talk about <b><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/01/revealed-tipsters-deliberately-recommend-losing-bets-to-punters?CMP=share_btn_tw" target="_blank">tipsters' affiliate deals with bookmakers </a></b>lately and I can only quote Cassini on the topic: "not interested in affiliate links". As simple as that.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Btw the Skeeve Picks membership is now closed for the remainder of the year, but if you want to be on the 2018 waiting list, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks@gmail.com).</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-76249275316867835812017-08-27T00:35:00.000+01:002017-08-27T00:37:00.192+01:00Vorp and the primitive source of an edge<div>
I've been meaning to comment on a couple of <b><a href="https://twitter.com/calciocassini" target="_blank">Cassini</a>'s <a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blog</a></b> posts since I've read them four weeks ago, but August is unfortunately quite a lot to handle as National League teams will have played as many as seven games in 24 days and I obviously need to spend a bit more time analyzing a 1st round game than, for example, a 28th round game. I've also traditionally implemented a few new elements into my match analysis and, as always, I'm wondering how on earth have I managed to stay ahead of the industry for so many years without those elements. I may have just been lucky for the past eleven years.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Anyway, in the <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2017/07/national-steamers-away.html" target="_blank">first</a> </b>of the two posts over at <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Green All Over</a></b>, Cassini wrote:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Miguel referenced an </span><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.pt/2016/02/full-bloom.html" style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #223344; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">old post of mine from almost 18 months ago</a><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">, which highlighted the challenges of finding an edge in the top leagues where you are competing with the likes of Starlizard... </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">As it's the eve of a new season, and most readers will forget this as soon as they've read it, I thought I might share a thought I had regarding the lower leagues. Back in May I mentioned that: "</span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">If you go too far down the football pyramid, you run into problems not only of liquidity, but also the problem where the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of certain key players becomes critical". </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Many of you will be familiar with </span><a href="http://www.skeevepicks.com/" style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #223344; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Skeeve</a><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">, who has been profitable in the National League since forever. How does he do it? By studying the teams in great detail. See </span><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/07/201718-pre-season-research-preview.html" style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #223344; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">this post for an example</a><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">. Since there are so few people studying this league to the extent that Skeeve does, he gets himself an edge. </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Most of us don't have the time for this level of research and analysis however. </span></div>
<div>
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I wouldn't say that VORP (it kind of sounds like a name for a baby dragon - look at little Vorp burning those daisies; I may have analyzed a few games too many today) is the only thing that gives me an edge, but it's surely an important element. As far as the time for this level of research and analysis is concerned, well it's what I do for a living.</div>
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<b><a href="https://twitter.com/adonis9898" target="_blank">Miguel Rodrigues</a></b> commented:</div>
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<span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Skeeve example is the perfect example for the ones with a exclusively mathematical based approach who look at subjective analysis as a primitive source of an edge. </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">I agree that the likelihood (and I experienced this myself in the early phase of my betting journey in La Liga) for that type of approach (subjective) working in the main European Leagues in the long haul is slim to none (insane market competition and know-how, better resources employed by the bookies in the opening lines, less average deviation between openers and closers, etc.) </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">However, if you understand the sport, the league and teams, particular characteristics and most importantly are willing to work harder researching for more information than anyone or the majority, you can be one of the market leaders and earners in a medium / lower level league. You just have to ensure that: </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">a) you have information that is not included in the line </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">and / or </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">b) you process the current information available and recognise market over /under reactions better than anyone else. </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Football teams are "stock prices" and although the odds efficiency in the main leagues is so strong that is difficult for the experienced bettor to see if the price is currently 5% off with subjective analysis, that is very doable in lower level leagues and I can not emphasise the example of Skeeve too much. In betting there will always exist spots for the guy who is willing to outwork and out-learn the competition, at least in the next 5 years. </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">The problem with subjective analysis is it's usually a low volume approach and difficult to use great staking methods like Kelly, but should not be viewed as a primitive source of an edge. </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">I will end this long comment with a quote from Joseph Buchdal: "</span><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #caf99b; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">There is no right or wrong approach to seeking a betting edge. Ultimately, the best one is the one that works for you, one that returns a profit. However, what each approach has in common is a shared aim of finding "</span><i style="background-color: #caf99b; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">value</i><span style="background-color: #caf99b; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">" in the odds, where the true chance of a win is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker</span></span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #6131bd; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">".</span></div>
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I can only agree with Miguel - very well put, sir. Personally, I need to see a price that's at least 10% off to get involved nowadays and I obviously think it's possible to stay ahead for a bit longer than five years (have I ever mentioned my eleven consecutive... I have?), but still - an excellent comment.</div>
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In the <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2017/08/elite-fun-and-barrow-boys.html" target="_blank">second</a></b> of the two blog posts, Cassini added:</div>
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<span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Unfortunately I have little to disagree with Miguel about regarding his thoughts. One thing I would say is that regarding the line "football teams are 'stock prices'", I think Miguel means that publicly traded companies are like football clubs (some clubs are indeed publicly traded companies) while stock prices are like betting prices in that they are the opinion of the market based on all "relevant" information. Relevant here is a combination of past public information, breaking new public information, and private (insider) information. </span><span style="background-color: #caf99b; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.349px; font-weight: bold;">Knowing along with everyone else that City beat United 2:0 three years ago isn't a lot of use to you. Knowing that a star player for Barrow (assuming they have one) slipped in the shower this morning, suffered a concussion and will miss tomorrow's game is useful. Installing hidden cameras in the bathrooms of non-league stars is not practical, or legal, but plenty of people have contacts who can provide information before it becomes public.</span></div>
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"Assuming they have one"?! After all that Byron Harrison's been through with his ankle in the last seven months, jokes about him slipping in the shower and suffering concussion in addition to a <b><a href="http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/article/Barrow-AFC-star-striker-Harrison-in-surgery-for-ankle-injury-da1ff9c1-579d-4f7a-a100-20e0c3a8c1da-ds" target="_blank">recent surgery</a></b> seem particularly cruel. Sorry Byron. As for Cassini, shame on you, mate. Shame on you.</div>
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skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-85332969212456934172017-07-25T12:02:00.001+01:002017-07-25T12:08:50.526+01:002017/18 pre-season research preview: Barrow AFC<b>BARROW AFC</b><br />
<br />
official website: http://barrowafc.com/<br />
local newspaper: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/Sport/Barrow-AFC<br />
fans' forum: http://www.barrowafc.net/<br />
wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrow_A.F.C.<br />
twitter: https://twitter.com/barrowafc<br />
youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/BarrowOfficial/<br />
<br />
manager: Paul Cox (since November 23, 2015)<br />
<br />
current team (as of July 25, 2017):<br />
<br />
<b>Moore</b>/Dixon<br />
<b>Audel</b>/Parry - Diarra - <b>Dunne </b>- <b>Jones</b><br />
<b>Fitzpatrick</b>/Hughes - Harvey - <b>Hall</b>/<b>Gomis </b>- <b>Bauress</b><br />
Bennett/Panayiotou - <b>White</b>/Harrison<br />
<br />
currently out injured: Parry (mid/def, October), Dixon (keeper, October), Harrison (striker, top scorer, 22 goals last season, September)<br />
<br />
transfers in: White (striker, Wrexham), Bauress (left winger/back, Witton), Jones (left/centre-back, Grimsby), Hall (mid, Cheltenham), Gomis (mid, Sutton), Fitzpatrick (winger, Wimbledon), Moore (keeper, Reading), Dunne (centre-back, Burnley, half-season loan), Audel (right/centre-back, Notts County)<br />
<br />
transfers out: Coughlin (keeper, Airbus), <b>Beeley </b>(right-back, Warrington), Meikle (winger, Kettering), Effiong (striker, Woking), <b>Livesey </b>(centre-back, skipper, Salford), Hannah (striker, Chester), <b>Turnbull </b>(mid, Chester), <b>Williams </b>(winger, Rochdale), Newby (winger, Telford), <b>Anderton </b>(left-back, Blackpool)<br />
<br />
returned to parent clubs at the end of last season: <b>Flatt </b>(keeper, Wolves), <b>Platt </b>(def, Blackburn), <b>Wright </b>(mid, Fleetwood)<br />
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<br />
news:<br />
<br />
10/5 keeper Coughlin, first-choice right-back Beeley, winger Meikle and striker Effiong have all been released; young winger Newby has been offered a new deal (which he refused and subsequently signed for Telford in late June); key centre-back Diarra stays for another season, while midfielders Harvey and Turnbull have had their contracts automatically extended after they both reached 25 appearances last season<br />
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19/5 skipper and first-choice centre-back Livesey wasn't offered a new deal, so he subsequently signs for Salford<br />
<br />
24/5 striker White joins from rivals Wrexham on a one-year deal with an appearance-based second-year option<br />
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3/6 left-sided midfielder Bauress who can play both in attack and in defence joins on a one-year deal from Evo-Stik Premier outfit Witton<br />
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7/6 first-choice midfielder Turnbull joins rivals Chester after all<br />
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8/6 star winger Williams (ten goals last season) joins League One outfit Rochdale<br />
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21/6 versatile left/centre-back Jones signs following his release from League Two outfit Grimsby<br />
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22/6 experienced midfielder Hall signs from League Two outfit Cheltenham<br />
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23/6 versatile midfielder Gomis joins from rivals Sutton<br />
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26/6 first-choice left-back Anderton joins League One newcomers Blackpool<br />
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28/6 winger Fitzpatrick joins from League One outfit Wimbledon<br />
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1/7 keeper Moore joins on a one-year deal from Championship outfit Reading<br />
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5/7 centre-back Dunne joins on a half-season loan deal from Premier League outfit Burnley<br />
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6/7 first-choice right-back Beeley signs for Warrington following his release in mid-May<br />
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14/7 versatile right/centre-back Audel joins from League Two outfit Notts County on a one-year deal with a performance-based second-year option<br />
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pre-season friendlies:<br />
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8/7 Barrow - Blackburn 1:2<br />
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/match-reports/article/Barrow-AFC-put-in-gritty-display-against-League-One-Blackburn-Rovers-5ea1f81a-b922-44c8-aec6-babba07e701f-ds<br />
highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W65PXlymr0c<br />
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11/7 Barrow - Motherwell 1:0<br />
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/article/All-White-on-the-night-as-Barrow-AFC-beat-Motherwell-11d1cc53-123b-479d-91d0-6b15f40b8bca-ds<br />
highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltC_kyJFfms<br />
<br />
15/7 Boston - Barrow 1:1<br />
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/match-reports/article/Boston-friendly-no-tea-party-for-Barrow-AFC-dcfb205a-8013-4a20-a271-2b2406a719be-ds<br />
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18/7 Barrow - Crewe Alexandra 0:0<br />
report: https://www.crewealex.net/news/2017/july/barrow---crewe/<br />
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22/7 Barrow - Nottingham Forest 1:1<br />
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/match-reports/article/Gomis-nets-first-Barrow-AFC-goal-in-Nottingham-Forest-draw-4d30c2c6-65ee-46d5-89cd-d5bfe9789dc3-ds<br />
highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTl34yQbfPM<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-21155512765879548242017-05-18T21:44:00.000+01:002017-07-12T09:38:35.281+01:00Skeeve Picks 2016/17 season review + stats update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-V7cwGfcl0W8/WR4GYPjoH_I/AAAAAAAAAKU/L6EYDWrqIssf363Xk1nkTYSdAhXWO8uHQCLcB/s1600/Skeeve%2BPicks%2B2016_17%2Bseason%2Breview%2Bcover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="353" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-V7cwGfcl0W8/WR4GYPjoH_I/AAAAAAAAAKU/L6EYDWrqIssf363Xk1nkTYSdAhXWO8uHQCLcB/s400/Skeeve%2BPicks%2B2016_17%2Bseason%2Breview%2Bcover.jpg" title="Skeeve Picks 2016/17 season review cover" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
The 2016/17 season here at <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">Skeeve Picks</a></b> is now officially over and it's been an excellent one - if you'd like to read the 2016/17 season review, feel free to send me an e-mail (skeevepicks@gmail.com) and I'll be glad to send you the five-page pdf file. Let me know if you want to be on the waiting list for the 2017/18 season as well.<br />
<br />
Also, when I was double-checking all of the numbers during the work on the season review, I've noticed a couple of mistakes (nothing recent, but from a few years ago), so mea culpa for that. I've now updated all of the <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/index.php?page=archived-picks" target="_blank">numbers</a></b> both on the official website and here on the blog (for instance, I've advised 1517 official picks so far instead of 1510 after all and my all-time ROC is a bit better than I though it was - it's actually 753.4%).<br />
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And now - a vacation. :)<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-54480033801859901592017-05-02T00:46:00.000+01:002017-05-02T00:47:27.581+01:00April 2017 review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6qXBrHKPfaU/WQfDSH1dNwI/AAAAAAAAAKA/TNL78eg4pMYpbyRF50Z3j22YQIeIf3_WwCLcB/s1600/april.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="101" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6qXBrHKPfaU/WQfDSH1dNwI/AAAAAAAAAKA/TNL78eg4pMYpbyRF50Z3j22YQIeIf3_WwCLcB/s320/april.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
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<span style="color: #6aa84f;">1/4 NL: Wrexham - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.2)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">1/4 NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Bromley (1.39 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.56)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">1/4 NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+1.96)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">1/4 NL: Southport - GUISELEY (2.76 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+1.76)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">8/4 NL: Chester - (0) YORK (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.24)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">8/4 NL: (-0.75) SUTTON - Southport (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 2:2 (-4)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">8/4 NL: Macclesfield - DAG & RED (3.55 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 1:4 (+2.55)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">14/4 NL: (-0.5) DOVER - Southport (1.36 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:0 (+1.44)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">22/4 NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Macclesfield (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 2:1 (+1.6)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">22/4 NL: Wrexham - (0) DAG & RED (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.04)</span><br />
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10 picks<br />
34 points staked<br />
9-0-1<br />
+13.35 points profit<br />
39.2% ROI<br />
22.2% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<br />
April was a near-perfect month with as many as nine of the ten official bets landing - can't get much better than that. April was also my 6th consecutive profitable month and my 15th profitable month out of the last 16 active months. Seven of the eight (four-point) asian handicap bets landed for a +9.04 point profit at a 28.3% ROI, while both (one-point) bets on outsiders landed as well for an additional +4.31 point profit at a 215.5% ROI.<br />
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<b>UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:</b><br />
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<span style="color: red;">1/4 NL: (-2) FOREST GREEN - North Ferriby (1.85 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><span style="color: #6aa84f;">29/4 NL: Dag & Red - (+0.5) WOKING (1.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (+0.6)</span></span><br />
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2 picks<br />
2 points staked<br />
1-0-1<br />
-0.40 point loss<br />
-20.0% ROI<br />
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There was a couple of unofficial bets based on late team news in April, one of which failed miserably on the first day of the month, while the other landed on the closing day of the regular season - to be honest, I didn't think I'd advise another unofficial last-minute pick this season after the April 1 fiasco (it's the biggest shock result of the season by far), but then Dag & Red who had confirmed their play-off spot in a previous game decided to go with the reserve team, while full-strength, in-form strugglers Woking needed a point to be safe.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-62774626966562457762017-04-25T20:22:00.000+01:002017-04-25T20:35:57.833+01:00unofficial long-term pick update + SBC 100<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.hr/2016/09/unofficial-long-term-pick.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="101" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V8A669a8B7Y/V9wptqH78VI/AAAAAAAAAHM/EAP3bpRmZrkfdTG-5TWcnY5eB6QaKSesQCLcB/s400/bl2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As Dagenham & Redbridge have now mathematically confirmed their play-off spot, I thought I'd share a few updated thoughts about my unofficial (as the bet isn't available with Pinnacle) <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.hr/2016/09/unofficial-long-term-pick.html" target="_blank">long-term bet on Dag & Red to be promoted</a></b>, advised way back in mid-September. Even though the odds did shorten to 4.00 (or even less) at one point of the season, 6.00 is now once again available with Marathon (5.50 with the likes of Bet365 and 188bet), so if you've failed to take the bet then, here's your chance. Do I still think it's a good bet? Absolutely. Dag & Red have the best record against the top-five out of all four play-off teams (it's hard to see Dover sneaking into the top-five after losing at home to struggling Torquay on Saturday - and Dag & Red have already beaten them twice this season anyway) - they did lose away at Aldershot (and champions Lincoln) who they can only face in the play-off final at Wembley (if Aldershot beat well fancied Tranmere over two semi-final legs), but they've beaten them (and Lincoln as well) at home and they're unbeaten against the other two, Tranmere (0:0 at home, 2:0 away) and the team they're facing in the play-off semi-finals, Forest Green (2:1 at home, 1:1 away), who are both bookies' promotion favorites (while Dag & Red and Aldershot are both outsiders). Forest Green have recently lost at home to already relegated North Ferriby (which was the biggest shock result of the season by far), away at already relegated Southport eight days ago and have only shared points with mid-table Maidstone after being 2:0 up on Saturday, so it's fair to say they aren't exactly at the top of their game at the moment. If Dag & Red do beat Forest Green in the semi-finals and if Tranmere beat Aldershot, they'll only be one Wembley game (against a team they haven't conceded a single goal to in two games) away from bouncing straight back to League Two. All things considered, anything better than 4.00 for Dag & Red to be promoted still looks great to me.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Congrats to the superb <b><a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/" target="_blank">Secret Betting Club</a></b> on their <b><a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/blog/celebrating-100th-sbc-magazine/" target="_blank">100th magazine</a></b>! I've been proofing my bets to the SBC since March 2008 and I can only thank them once again for providing a neutral perspective on this often chaotic world of tipsters and so-called tipsters. Here's to another 100!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-20706951653523671192017-04-06T20:46:00.000+01:002017-04-06T22:03:36.836+01:00April Fools' Day oddsI haven't had such a perfect April Fools' Day in a long time - I've advised four official bets to <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">Skeeve Picks</a></b> clients and all four teams won their respective games without conceding a single goal. Officially, my clients made +7.48 points profit at a 57.5% ROI, which obviously means it was a great day at the office, but let me explain why I tend to describe my recorded odds as those "recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst" and why I think you can easily beat the official results - and show you how most other services would record these bets/odds.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">NL: Wrexham - (-0.25) TRANMERE (min. odds: 1.45) 4 points</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/wrexham-tranmere-Q5AwW6tO/#ah;2;0.25;0</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Wrexham haven't really been doing that great since they've hit the fifty-point mark (which means they'll be playing their football in the National League next season - they can't get relegated nor promoted to League Two) - they're now without a win in the last four, two of which were defeats (0:2 to Gateshead, 0:3 at Forest Green, 1:1 at Barrow, 1:1 vs Torquay), the only two goals they've managed to score in the last 400 minutes of football were a 94th minute goal at Barrow after the home team's keeper completely missed the ball and then a goal from a controversial penalty that shouldn't have been a penalty against struggling Torquay who had later equalised from a penalty of their own last weekend, they have the fourth worst home attack in the league (only 22 goals scored in their twenty home games so far - only North Ferriby, Braintree and Boreham Wood have scored less at home), they have a terrible record against top-ten teams, both home (a win against Forest Green back in November, draws with Dover and Barrow in August and October respectively and defeats to Lincoln in October, Macclesfield in December, Aldershot in February and Gateshead in March; six goals scored, twelve goals conceded) and away (draws at Gateshead, Dover and Barrow and defeats at Aldershot, Dag & Red, Macclesfield, Tranmere, Lincoln and Forest Green; four goals scored, eighteen goals conceded), they're once again without their key centre-back Tilt (switched to Forest Green for the remainder of the season), key attacking midfielder and set-piece specialist Rooney (loaned to Guiseley for the remainder of the season) and first-choice left-back Jennings (suspended), which means they're once again going to have to field some youngsters and, even though there are far worse teams in the National League than their expected line-up (Dunn between the sticks; Carrington, Riley, youngster Marx and out-of-position midfielder Shenton at the back; Rutherford, Barry, Penn and Smith/Evans in their midfield diamond; McLeod/White and Harry/Massanka up front), they're a bit overrated here if you ask me.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Tranmere are the second best away team in the league with as many as ten wins and only five defeats in their twenty away games so far, they have the best defence (only 32 goals conceded in their 38 National League games so far) and the best away defence in the league (only nineteen goals conceded in their twenty away games so far), they also have the third best away attack in the National League (as many as 32 goals scored in twenty away games - only Forest Green and Dag & Red have scored more on the road so far), they've now won three consecutive games (4:1 at North Ferriby, 1:0 vs Braintree, 1:0 vs Dover) and only lost one of their last six away games, four of which were wins (3:0 at Woking, 2:0 at Eastleigh, 3:2 at Chester, 1:2 at play-off chasing Barrow, an unlucky 0:0 draw at Torquay and, finally, 4:1 at doomed North Ferriby ten days ago), they've already managed to beat Wrexham twice this season without conceding a single goal (2:0 at home back in October, 1:0 away at Wrexham in the FA Trophy in December), they have an excellent away record at teams outside the top-nine or, if you want, at teams who can't reach the play-offs (a narrow 0:1 defeat at one of the best home teams in the league Sutton on their 3G pitch back in mid-September, draws at Southport, York and Torquay in August, September and March respectively and wins at Bromley, Boreham Wood, Solihull, Braintree, Woking, Eastleigh, Chester and North Ferriby, so eight wins, three draws and one defeat; twenty goals scored, only five goals conceded) and, even though they're still missing a few injured players, their expected line-up (Davies between the sticks; McNulty, Ihiekwe and Buxton/Sutton in their three-man defence; Vaughan and Ridehalgh as wing-backs; Harris, Hughes and Jennings/Wallace in the middle of the park; Cook and Norwood/Stockton up front) should be bigger favorites away at mid-table Wrexham (who are missing two of their standard back four) at this moment in time if you ask me. All things considered, anything better than 1.45 for the (-0.25) asian handicap (we only lose two points in case of a draw) looks great to me.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">pre-mail odds: </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.62 with StanJames...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.61 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Pinnacle</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">, Unibet...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.60 with Bet365...</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(my odds: 1.45)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds: 1.73 @Bet365)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 1.71 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 1.62 @StanJames)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 1.61 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><u>(recorded odds: 1.55 @Pinnacle)</u></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds: 1.52 @Unibet)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 1.50 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
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First of all, we have the so-called "min. odds" or, if you want, my own odds - if I were an odds compiler, I would've had the (-0.25) asian handicap odds on Tranmere at 1.45. The best opening odds were 1.71 with Pinnacle (and 1.73 with Bet365), after which the odds even drifted out to 1.72 with Pinnacle at one point, but I'm sending all official picks, one pick at a time, on Saturdays, at 10:30 AM UK time, so I have to wait until then to see if there's at least 10% difference between the available odds and my own odds. As the best odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 1.61 with Pinnacle (and 1.62 with StanJames), the bet qualified for the official bet, so I've sent the pick & preview to my clients. I'm only recording odds with three bookmakers - Pinnacle, SBO and 12bet/Dafabet - and the best odds with those three sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 1.55 with Pinnacle, so that's how I officially recorded the bet/odds. After that, the odds shortened a bit more, then bounced back to 1.55 half an hour before the kick-off, then shortened again and were 1.50 with Pinnacle (and 1.52 with Unibet) just before the kick-off. As I've recorded the odds at 1.55 with Pinnacle, the official profit was +2.2 points. From my experience, most or all other services would've officially made more profit with this bet - either by sharing it with their clients at some random point, maybe days before the game, when the market is much weaker (up to +2.92 points profit instead of the +2.2) or recording the best odds without the delay (up to +2.48 points profit instead of the +2.2). The difference in profit may not seem huge, but this is just one bet - and I'll advise more than fifty over the course of the season, most of which will land.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Bromley (min. odds: 1.30) 4 points</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/lincoln-city-bromley-UF6xpHro/</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">League leaders and FA Cup heroes Lincoln are now unbeaten at home since mid-September of, if you want, in as many as eighteen (!) games in all three (National League, FA Cup, FA Trophy) competitions, fourteen of which were wins (3:0 vs Braintree, 0:0 vs Guiseley in the FA Cup, 0:0 vs Eastleigh, 2:0 vs Boreham Wood, 2:1 vs Altrincham in the FA Cup, 3:3 vs Aldershot, 2:0 vs Maidstone, 1:0 vs Wrexham, 3:2 vs Oldham in the FA Cup, 2:1 vs Tranmere, 3:1 vs Guiseley, 1:0 vs Ipswich in the FA Cup, 2:0 vs Dover, 3:1 vs Brighton in the FA Cup, 3:2 vs Woking, 1:1 vs very much improved York, 1:0 vs the very same York in the FA Trophy and, finally, 3:1 vs title rivals Forest Green last weekend), they've scored as many as 35 and only conceded thirteen in these eighteen home games, they've won eleven of their last twelve (!) home games and shared point with very much improved York in the remaining one, they've scored as many as 40 and only conceded fifteen in their eighteen home games in the National League so far, they've been brilliant in their key home games (and I guess every home game will be a key game for them in April) and, if you ask me, their well settled (I guess we could see Wood instead of Long at right-back, Whitehouse instead of Power in the middle of the park and Anderson instead of Hawkridge on the right flank compared to the midweek 1:1 draw away at one of the best home teams in the league Sutton who are excellent on their 3G pitch, which is an even better starting line-up if you ask me) team (Farman between the sticks; Wood/Long, Raggett, Waterfall and Habergham at the back; Whitehouse/Power and Woodyard in the middle of the park; Anderson/Hawkridge and Arnold on the flanks; Rhead and Angol up front) should be even bigger favorites at home against mediocre Bromley.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Bromley have only won one of their last nine games, they've lost six of their last eight (0:1 to Solihull, 1:2 at Dag & Red, 0:4 at Aldershot, 0:5 to Braintree, 0:0 at Boreham Wood, 3:0 vs North Ferriby, 0:1 at Dover, 0:1 to Chester), only one of which was a win (at home against doomed North Ferriby who had their left-back Hare sent off in the 18th minute), they're without a single away win in 2017 (0:2 at Sutton, 2:2 at Tranmere which was really lucky as Tranmere had a 2:0 lead in the 15th minute, but first lost key centre-back McNulty to an injury on the half-mark and then another defender Buxton to a red card before the hour mark, after which Bromley scored twice to grab an unlikely point, 1:2 at Dag & Red, 0:4 at Aldershot, 0:0 at mediocre Boreham Wood who would've won that game on most days and finally, 0:1 at Dover who were without the league's top scorer Miller due to his suspension a fortnight ago, so four defeats and two lucky draws on the road so far in 2017), they've recently lost more than a couple of key players in centre-back Swaine, keeper Julian and striker Hanlan, can't get relegated nor promoted to League Two and I really can't see their expected team (Flitney between the sticks; Dunne, Holland, Chorley and Anderson at the back; Higgs/Dymond and Minshull in the middle of the park; Turgott and Dennis/Hall on the flanks; Goldberg/Porter and Sho-Silva up front) doing much away at a team as good, fit and full of confidence as Lincoln. Anything better than 1.30 for the home win looks great to me.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">pre-mail odds:</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.48 with Marathon...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.47 with 5Dimes...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.45 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Pinnacle</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.44 with Coral, Will Hill...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.42 with 188bet...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.40 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">12bet/Dafabet</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">, Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Unibet...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.38 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">SBO</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">...</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(my odds: 1.30)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds: 1.43 @Marathon)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 1.40 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 1.48 @Marathon)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 1.45 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><u>(recorded odds: 1.39 @12bet/Dafabet)</u></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds: 1.40 @Coral)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 1.37 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
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I would've had the odds on Lincoln at 1.30. The best opening odds were 1.40 with Pinnacle (and 1.43 with Marathon), after which the odds drifted out to 1.48 with Pinnacle at one point, and the odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 1.45 with Pinnacle (and 1.48 with Marathon), so the bet qualified for the official bet. The best odds with official bookmakers sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 1.39 with 12bet/Dafabet, then they've shortened a bit more, then bounced back a bit and were 1.37 with Pinnacle (and 1.40 with Coral) just before the kick-off. As I've recorded the odds at 1.39 with 12bet/Dafabet, the official profit was +1.56 point. Most other services would've officially made more profit with this bet (up to +1.92 point profit instead of +1.56).<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT (min. odds: 1.40) 4 points</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/solihull-aldershot-M9gO7Kzh/#ah;2;0.00;0</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Solihull have a horrifying home record against top-ten teams (nine games - which means this is their only remaining home game against a top-ten team - all defeats, eight goals scored, as many as 23 goals conceded - 2:3 to Macclesfield, 2:5 to Dagenham, 0:3 to Tranmere, 0:1 to Forest Green, 2:3 to Dover, 0:2 to Gateshead, 0:1 to Lincoln, 0:1 to Wrexham and, finally, 2:4 to Barrow last weekend), they're without a single win in their seventeen (!) games against top-ten teams so far, both home and away, they've now lost three consecutive games (1:2 at Forest Green, 2:4 to Barrow, 0:1 to Torquay) and are without a win in their last four home games, three of which were defeats (0:1 to Wrexham, 3:3 vs Braintree, 2:4 to Barrow, 0:1 to Torquay), they've only won one of their last seven games, four of which were defeats (0:1 to Wrexham, 0:0 at Dover, 3:3 vs Braintree, 4:1 at poor North Ferriby, 1:2 at Forest Green, 2:4 to Barrow, 0:1 to Torquay), they're the fifth worst home team in the league with seven wins and as many as ten defeats in their twenty home game so far (only North Ferriby and Braintree have lost more home games so far), they have the third worst home defence in the National League (as many as 34 goals conceded in twenty home games - only Southport and Maidstone have conceded more at home so far), they've already lost 0:2 away at the very same Aldershot back in October (they've only had one shot on target in the whole game), they'll be missing their key winger Charles-Cook (on loan from Charlton) due to suspension (he was sent off late in the 0:1 defeat to struggling Torquay on Tuesday), while the likes of left-back Flanagan, midfielders Nortey and Beswick, key winger/right-back Murombedzi and top scorer White are all still out injured and, if you ask me, they're significantly overrated here. There's nothing wrong with their expected line-up (Baxter between the sticks; Green, Daly, Kettle/Sanusi and Franklin at the back; Byrne, Sammons and Maye in the middle of the park; Carline and Sterling-James on the flanks; Brown/Afolayan up front), but Aldershot should be bigger favorites away at Solihull at this moment in time if you ask me.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Aldershot have now only lost one of their last fifteen (!) games (4:0 vs Woking, 2:1 at Woking, 2:1 vs Southport, 1:1 at play-off chasing Gateshead, 0:0 vs very much improved York, 2:0 at Maidstone, 2:2 vs play-off chasing Barrow, 2:0 at Wrexham, 4:0 vs Bromley, 1:1 at improved Eastleigh, 0:0 vs league leaders and FA Cup heroes Lincoln, 0:1 at very much improved Guiseley which was rather unlucky as Aldershot hit the woodwork twice, 2:0 vs Sutton, 3:1 vs promotion hopefuls Dag & Red and, finally, 2:0 at play-off chasing Macclesfield last weekend) and only one of their last seven away games, four of which were wins (2:1 at Woking, 1:1 at Gateshead, 2:0 at Maidstone, 2:0 at Wrexham, 1:1 at Eastleigh, 0:1 at Guiseley, 2:0 at Macclesfield), they've bounced back in style after their first defeat in twelve games by winning three in a row (2:0 vs Sutton, 3:1 vs Dag & Red, 2:0 at Macclesfield), they tend to win games even when they aren't at their best, which could be crucial in their play-off hunt, they have the fifth best away defence in the league (they've only conceded 22 goals in their twenty away games so far - Tranmere have conceded nineteen, Macclesfield have conceded twenty, both Lincoln and Dag & Red have conceded 21, but all other teams have conceded more or much more than Aldershot's 22 on the road so far), they're at full-strength (they've now extended their key midfielder Benyu's loan from Ipswich until the end of the season) and, if you ask me, their expected line-up (Cole between the sticks; Alexander/Arnold, Reynolds, Evans and Arnold/Straker at the back; Gallagher and Benyu in the middle of the park; Kanu and Kellerman/Mensah on the flanks; Rendell and Fenelon/McClure up front) should be bigger favorites away at Solihull. Anything better than 1.40 for this draw-no-bet (we get our money back in case of a draw) looks great to me.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">pre-mail odds:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.57 with Marathon...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.56 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Pinnacle</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.55 with Bet365, Sportingbet (dnb)...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.53 with BetVictor (dnb), Coral (dnb), Ladbrokes (dnb)...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.52 with Unibet...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1.50 with Will Hill (dnb)...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(my odds: 1.40)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds: 1.65 @Marathon)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 1.55 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 1.57 @Marathon)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 1.56 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><u>(recorded odds: 1.49 @Pinnacle)</u></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds: 1.55 @Sportingbet)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 1.48 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<br />
I would've had the draw-no-bet odds on Aldershot at 1.40. The best opening odds were 1.55 with Pinnacle (and 1.65 with Marathon) and the best odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 1.56 with Pinnacle (and 1.57 with Marathon), so the bet qualified for the official bet. The best odds sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 1.49 with Pinnacle, then they've shortened a bit more, then bounced back to 1.50 with Pinnacle twenty minutes before the kick-off and were 1.48 with Pinnacle (and 1.55 with Sportingbet) just before the kick-off. As I've recorded the odds at 1.49 with Pinnacle, the official profit was +1.96 point. Most other services would've officially made more profit with this bet (up to +2.6 points profit instead of +1.96).<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;">NL: Southport - GUISELEY (min. odds: 2.50) 1 point</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/southport-guiseley-volT6vjb/</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Southport don't look like they'll survive the relegation battle - they're second to bottom, as many as nine points off safety, they have the worst defence in the league by far (as many as 84 (!) goals conceded in their 39 National League games so far - the second worst defence is Woking's with their 73 goals conceded in fourty games) and also the joint worst home defence (as many as 37 goals conceded in their nineteen home games so far), they've now lost ten of their last twelve games, only one of which was a win (1:2 to Wealdstone in the FA Trophy, 2:4 to North Ferriby, 1:3 at Bromley, 0:3 at Gateshead, 1:4 to Dag & Red, 0:0 at Woking, 0:1 to Chester, 2:4 at Maidstone, 1:2 to Torquay, 0:2 at Braintree, 3:5 at York and, finally, 1:0 vs tired, mid-table Boreham Wood last weekend), they've lost five consecutive home games before the Boreham Wood win (1:2 to Wealdstone in the FA Trophy, 2:4 to bottom-of-the-table North Ferriby 1:4 to Dag & Red, 0:1 to mid-table Chester, 1:2 to fellow strugglers Torquay), they're still missing the likes of skipper/key centre-back Thompson, first-choice midfielder Lussey (both are still out injured) and possibly top scorer Allen (who is supposedly back in training after missing the last four games, but could be some way off full fitness, as is the other candidate for the second slot up front Brodie), while first-choice keeper Norman and first-choice winger Meikle have both recently returned to their parent clubs, Fulham and rivals Barrow respectively, which means we'll probably see King between the sticks, Jack Higgins, Murray and White in their three-man defence, Ryan Higgins and McKeown as wing-backs, Stevenson, Nolan and Weeks in the middle of the park and Almond and unfit Brodie/Allen up front. That eleven don't really deserve to be favorites against much improved Guiseley at this moment in time if you ask me.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Guiseley have now only lost one of their last six or, if you want, two of their last ten (1:1 vs Eastleigh, 2:1 vs Sutton, 2:1 at promotion hopefuls Dag & Red, 1:2 to North Ferriby, 1:0 vs play-off chasing Barrow, 2:1 at Torquay, 1:0 vs play-off chasing Aldershot, 0:0 at Boreham Wood, 1:1 at play-off chasing Gateshead and, finally, 0:4 to play-off chasing Dover in a one-off horror show last weekend, which obviously helped making them industry's outsiders in this game), they're unbeaten in four away games, two of which were wins, they've won three of their last six away from home, only one of which was a defeat (2:1 at Macclesfield, 1:3 at Wrexham, 2:1 at Dag & Red, 2:1 at Torquay, 0:0 at Boreham Wood, 1:1 at Gateshead), they've already managed to beat Southport 2:1 at home back in October (it could've been a bigger win, but Southport keeper Norman who is now back with his parent club Fulham saved Rankine's late penalty) and, if you ask me, their expected team (Maxted between the sticks; Brown, Lawlor/Palmer, Lowe and Williams at the back; Walton/Lawlor, Hatfield and Purver in the middle of the park; Hurst/Asamoah and Preston on the flanks; Cassidy/Rankine up front) should be favorites away at Southport at this moment in time and not the other way around. Anything better than 2.50 for the away win looks great to me.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">pre-mail odds:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.90 with Bet365...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.89 with 5Dimes...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.88 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">SBO</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">, BetVictor, Coral...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.85 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Pinnacle</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">, Marathon...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.81 with 188bet...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.80 with Will Hill...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.75 with Ladbrokes, Unibet...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2.74 with </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: wf_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">12bet/Dafabet</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(my odds: 2.50)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds: 2.88 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 2.88 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 2.90 @Bet365)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 2.88 @SBO)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><u>(recorded odds: 2.76 @Pinnacle, SBO)</u></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds: 3.40 @BetVictor)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 3.24 @Pinnacle)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: , "segoe ui" , "segoe wp" , "tahoma" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
I would've had the odds on Guiseley at 2.50. The best opening odds were 2.88 with Pinnacle and the best odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 2.88 with SBO (and 2.90 with Bet365), so the bet qualified for the official bet. The best odds sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 2.76 with both Pinnacle and SBO, then they've shortened a bit more, then drifted out to 3.33 with Pinnacle half an hour before the kick-off and were 3.24 with Pinnacle (and 3.40 with BetVictor) just before the kick-off. This is why my results based on closing/kick-off odds are now outperforming my results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season - I really am recording the odds when they're at their worst and it only takes a few cases of odds (mostly on outsiders) drifting out and respective bets landing for the results based on closing odds to beat the results based on recorded odds in the long run.skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-84342626803224036592017-04-04T17:53:00.001+01:002017-04-04T17:53:46.232+01:00March 2017 review<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<b><br /></b><span style="color: blue;">4/3 NL: Aldershot - (0) LINCOLN (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">4/3 NL: Gateshead - DAG & RED (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:0 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">4/3 NL: Torquay - GUISELEY (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+2.02)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><span style="color: blue;">11/3 NL: (0) WOKING - Boreham Wood (1.64 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: red;">11/3 NL: Bromley - NORTH FERRIBY (4.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:0 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><span style="color: #6aa84f;">18/3 NL: (0) ALDERSHOT - Sutton (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.76)<br />18/3 NL: (-0.75) GATESHEAD - Woking (1.79 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 2:1 (+1.58)<br />25/3 NL: (0) LINCOLN - Forest Green (1.63 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.52)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: red;">25/3 NL: GUISELEY - Dover (3.01 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:4 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">25/3 NL: Wrexham - TORQUAY (4.59 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)</span><br />
<br />
10 picks<br />
25 points staked<br />
4-2-4<br />
+3.88 point profit<br />
15.5% ROI<br />
6.4% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<br />
March 2017 was my fifth consecutive profitable month and my 14th profitable month in the last 15 active months. Only one of the five one-point bets on outsiders landed for a -1.98 point loss with the bets on outsiders, but none of the five four-point asian handicap bets was a losing one (two were void) for a +5.86 points profit with the asian handicap bets. You won't get a complaint from me after a 15% ROI second-half-of-the-season month.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;">18/3 NL: Barrow - (0) DAG & RED (2.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:1 (-1)</span><br />
<br />
1 pick<br />
1 point staked<br />
0-0-1<br />
-1.00 point loss<br />
-100% ROI<br />
<br />
A disappointing run with the unofficial last-minute picks continues. There was only one unofficial last-minute bet in March and it failed miserably for a one-point loss with these unofficial picks based on late team news.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-46687649995539110292017-03-01T21:02:00.000+00:002017-03-01T21:03:08.845+00:00February 2017 review<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<b><br /></b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">4/2 NL: (0) BROMLEY - Torquay (1.42 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.68)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">4/2 NL: Maidstone - (0) ALDERSHOT (1.67 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.68)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">11/2 NL: Southport - (0) DAG & RED (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:4 (+2.04)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">11/2 NL: Braintree - NORTH FERRIBY (6.53 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:0 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">11/2 NL: GUISELEY - Eastleigh (3.00 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">11/2 NL: SOLIHULL - Sutton (2.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:0 (+1.88)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">18/2 NL: Eastleigh - (0) TRANMERE (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.2)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">18/2 NL: (0) WREXHAM - Aldershot (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">18/2 NL: Boreham Wood - YORK (3.58 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">25/2 NL: SOUTHPORT - Chester (2.60 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (-1)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">25/2 NL: TORQUAY - Sutton (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (-1)</span><br />
<br />
11 picks<br />
26 points staked<br />
5-0-6<br />
+1.48 point profit<br />
5.6% ROI<br />
2.4% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<br />
A disappointing ending to another profitable month (this was my 13th profitable month out of last 14 "active" months). After they've produced a +7.83 point profit (at a 391% (!) ROI) in January, the one-point bets on outsiders produced a -3.12 point loss in February, which is why the monthly profit was rather modest in the end (+1.48 point profit at a 5.6% ROI based on recorded odds, which - as I suppose most of you know by now - are the odds recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst) - the four-point asian handicap bets had a very good February with four out of five bets landing for a +4.6 point profit.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><span style="color: #6aa84f;">11/2 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Woking (1.58 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:2 (+0.29)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: red;">11/2 NL: (-0.25) YORK - Maidstone (1.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-0.5)</span><br />
<br />
2 picks<br />
2 points staked<br />
1-0-1<br />
-0.21 point loss<br />
-10.5% ROI<br />
<br />
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks, but there was once again only a couple of bets. I have to admit I expected more from the unofficial last-minute picks based on late team news, but the season is far from over - there's nine more weekends + play-offs to go.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-60244284378449665802017-02-25T17:18:00.000+00:002017-07-11T20:29:39.646+01:00the "outstanding contribution to tipping" award + Pinnacle on their way back to the UK market<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="51" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_MJ5klIkF54/WLGCTYtb6iI/AAAAAAAAAJA/fJYIm3pGg74lWezmrUtXoD5A9fDg0XlJwCLcB/s400/Outstanding_Contribution_Tipping.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I'm proud to announce that I've just won the <b><a href="https://secretbettingclub.com/" target="_blank">SBC</a></b> "outstanding contribution to tipping" award, which is a "lifetime achievement honour chosen by the SBC team" (along with being voted the third best sports tipster in 2016 by the SBC members, but now I'm just bragging). To quote the SBC team,<br />
<br />
"<i>the SBC ‘Lifetime Achievement’ honour is designed to recognize those who have provided outstanding services to punters through tipping and is chosen by the Secret Betting Club team. </i><i>This year’s very worthy award recipient is the football tipster, Skeeve, who since 2006 has been posting his lower-league football tips to great acclaim. Making a profit over the course of 1 football season is difficult enough but to do it over 10 consecutive seasons as Skeeve has done is a phenomenal achievement. Over the lifetime of his service, Skeeve has posted just under 1500 tips and made 674 points profit at 12.2% Return on Investment. It is not just his profit but the quality of customer service and his odds-settlement policy that also deserves merit as Skeeve has always played extremely fair by his members. Ensuring that you can often match, if not beat the advised profits he records on his website – a huge deal when you consider today’s betting markets and how they react to sharp money. Skeeve is well on course to enjoy his 11th consecutive profitable season and we can’t think of a worthier recipient for this honour. Here is to another decade of profit!</i>"<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<b>2017 RESULTS SO FAR:</b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
17 picks</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
44 points staked</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
+5.11 points profit</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
11.6% ROI</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
8.5% ROC</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<b>2016 RESULTS:</b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
49 picks</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
121 points staked</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
+19.49 points profit</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
16.1% ROI</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
32.4% ROC</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<b>LAST THREE YEARS (MARCH 2014 - FEBRUARY 2017):</b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
172 picks</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
511 points staked</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
+66.37 points profit</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
12.9% ROI</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
97.7% ROC</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
Anonymous posted a <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.hr/2017/02/closingkick-off-odds-part-one.html#comment-form" target="_blank">comment</a></b> about Pinnacle and their continued absence from the UK market. I hope he's satisfied with my answer and I also hope <b><a href="https://twitter.com/12xpert" target="_blank">Joseph Buchdahl</a></b> isn't wrong about <b><a href="https://twitter.com/12Xpert/status/835268394828107776" target="_blank">Pinnacle returning to the UK market as soon as next month</a></b>!<br />
<br />
Last but not least, congrats to <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.hr/" target="_blank">Cassini</a> - </b>one of, if not THE, best bloggers around - on his <b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.hr/2017/02/15-million-and-counting.html" target="_blank">2259th blog post</a></b>. It's not a typo - that's 2259 (update: 2261) blog posts.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-5854563296306248602017-02-23T02:39:00.000+00:002017-02-23T02:44:06.597+00:00closing/kick-off odds (part one)I'm horrible, I know - I've promised an article on closing/kick-off odds more than a month ago and now I'm going to split it into more than one part? Unbelievable. Unfortunately, as always at this time of year, there's plenty of something I like to call the "actual work", which means I have to try and keep the blog alive (among other things) in my so-called spare time - and you can't buy spare time.<br />
<br />
Anyway, for starters, here's what <b><a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/why-pinnacle-doesnt-close-or-limit-accounts" target="_blank">Joseph Buchdahl</a></b> wrote about the closing odds in one of his educational articles for Pinnacle:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3d4658; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Closing odds reflect the largest amount of information about matches, and the maximum number of opinions being expressed through wagering on that information, and hence are most likely to be the most efficient.</span><br />
<br />
I don't think there's many, if any, who'd say that beating the closing odds at Pinnacle in the long run isn't an obvious sign of a good tipster - possibly not the only sign, but a well obvious sign. In that light, I've decided to take a closer look at the closing/kick-off odds for my official picks in the last six campaigns (starting with the 2010/11 season, which is when I've started to record all odds with a significant delay in the official stats and compare the pre-mail odds, recorded odds and the closing odds, and ending with the 2015/16 season - I'll write more about the current season as soon as it ends in May), along with the so-called "pre-mail" odds (those available before I send the pick, but at an extremely fixed moment in time, which I'll write more about in the next article, and days after those juicy opening odds which would - in all fairness - return the biggest theoretical profit by far, but at severe limits and odds movements in practice) and the so-called "recorded" odds (those recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst - I've experimented with various delays, never shorter than sixty seconds, in recording the odds since the 2010/11 season until I've settled with a sixty-second delay at the beginning of last season, which ensures that everyone who can take the bet straight away, at an extremely fixed moment in time, is able to beat the so-called "official" results).<br />
<br />
<b>2010/11 - 2015/16 (PRE-MAIL ODDS): +206.35 points profit (11.0% ROI)</b><br />
<b>2010/11 - 2015/16 (RECORDED ODDS): +157.93 points profit (8.4% ROI)</b><br />
<b>2010/11 - 2015/16 (CLOSING ODDS): +138.52 points profit (7.4% ROI)</b><br />
<br />
I'll go into more detail in the next article (consider this an intro article to this very interesting topic), but beating the closing odds at Pinnacle in the long run? Check. However, my results based on closing/kick-off odds are now outperforming the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season (not by far, but still), which is a fairly interesting phenomenon (and another sub-topic I'll write more on in the next article). As I really do record the odds when they're at their worst, it probably isn't as bizarre as it may seem at the first glance, and - as I wrote in the <b><a href="http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.hr/2017/01/2016-review.html" target="_blank">2016 review</a></b> - "<span style="color: orange;"><span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">both the results based on pre-mail odds and the results based on kick-off/closing odds have outperformed the official results in 2016 - in most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds </span><span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">(for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1),</span><span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting</span></span>". There were eight cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and closing/kick-off odds in 2016. The odds drifted out (at least 10%) in seven of these eight cases and five of those seven bets landed (+4.67 points profit at a 32.2% ROI based on recorded odds; +7.12 points profit at a 49.1% ROI based on closing odds). The only odds-shortening (10% or more) bet landed for a +1.76 point profit based on recorded odds and a +1.2 point profit based on closing odds respectively.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-1254930932687229032017-02-02T22:20:00.001+00:002017-02-02T23:17:46.147+00:00January 2017 reviewI still owe you an article on the kick-off/closing odds and I'll be glad to publish it in a few days, but let me get the <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">January 2017</a></b> review out of the way first.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<b><br /></b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">7/1 NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Southport (1.98 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:1 (+1.96)<br />14/1 NL: (-0.5) WREXHAM - North Ferriby (1.46 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">21/1 NL: (-0.75) MACCLESFIELD - Guiseley (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (-4)<br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">21/1 NL: Southport - NORTH FERRIBY (5.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 2:4 (+4.70)</span></span><br />
<span style="color: red;">28/1 NL: (-0.25) EASTLEIGH - Woking (1.45 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (-4)<br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">28/1 NL: Tranmere - DAG & RED (4.13 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:2 (+3.13)</span></span><br />
<br />
6 picks<br />
18 points staked<br />
4-0-2<br />
+3.63 point profit<br />
20.1% ROI<br />
6.0% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<br />
A bad mini-run with the four-point asian handicap bets (-8) has been counteracted by a great mini-run with the one-point bets on outsiders (+7.83) and I doubt I'll see many, if any, more weekends with this kind of a scenario (the four-point asian handicap bet fails while the one-point outsider bet lands) in the next thirteen weeks (+play-offs). The bets on outsiders have produced a 391% ROI this month (!) and that's based on recorded odds - the Dag & Red odds have, for some reason, drifted out to 5.14 with Pinnacle by kick-off last weekend. All in all, a very good month - I'd have nothing against a 20% ROI each month, obviously.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;">21/1 NL: York - (0) BARROW (1.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:1 (-1)<br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">28/1 NL: (0) BROMLEY - Southport (1.49 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (+0.49)</span></span><br />
<br />
2 picks<br />
2 points staked<br />
1-0-1<br />
-0.51 point loss<br />
-25.5% ROI<br />
<br />
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks, but there was once again only a couple of bets. There should be more last-minute picks in February.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UNOFFICIAL LONG-TERM PICKS 2016/17 (<span style="color: #666666;">PENDING</span>):</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #999999;">NL: DAG & RED to be promoted to League Two (6.00 @Marathon) 1 point</span><br />
<br />
The current best price is 5.00 with the likes of Marathon and Will Hill (the bet was advised in mid-September). Unfortunately, these unofficial long-term bets aren't available with the likes of Pinnacle and SBO.<br />
<br />skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-54469643935240449292017-01-23T01:02:00.000+00:002017-01-23T01:02:39.108+00:002016 review<b>OFFICIAL PICKS (2016):</b><br />
<br />
49 picks<br />
121 points staked<br />
25-5-19<br />
+19.49 points profit<br />
16.1% ROI<br />
32.4% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: red;"> 9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;"> 9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)<br /> 9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;"> 23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)<br /> 30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)<br /> 6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;"> 13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)<br /> 27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)<br /> 27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)<br /> 5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)<br /> 19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1) <br /> 25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)<br /> 26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)</span> <br /><span style="color: blue;"> 2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0) </span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)<br /> 9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)<br /> 16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)<br /> 16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)<br /> 23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)<br /> 23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)<br /> 30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88) <br /> 5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)<br /> 22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76) </span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;"> 26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)<br /> 3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76) </span><br /><span style="color: blue;"> 17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: red;"> 17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5) </span></span></span><br />
<br />
I think it's fair to say that 2016 wasn't a bad year at <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">Skeeve Picks</a></b> at all. Seven of the eight "active" months in 2016 were profitable (January, February, March, April, May, November and December were all profitable, while the only losing month was October with it's -0.74 point loss). The worst losing run was -8.4 between March 25 and April 9. The worst losing weekend (April 9) produced a six-point loss. Of the 25 "active" weekends in 2016, 19 were profitable (as were 30 of the last 37 "active" weekends, ending with the three consecutive profitable weekends so far in January 2017).<br />
<br />
<div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>ASIAN HANDICAP BETS (2016):</b><br />
<br />
30 picks<br />
104 points staked<br />
17-5-8<br />
+10.22 points profit<br />
9.8% ROI<br />
<br style="font-size: small;" /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: red;">9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)<br />30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)<br />27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)<br />5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)<br />19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)</span><span style="color: red;"><br />25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)</span><br /><span style="color: blue;">2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)<br />9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)</span><span style="color: red;"><br />23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)</span><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><br />30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2) </span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)<br />3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76) </span><br /><span style="color: blue;">17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span></span><br />
<br />
Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+12.6 points profit, 12.1% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+12.47 points profit, 11.9% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+10.22 points profit, 9.8% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were five cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the asian handicap bets are concerned:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)</span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 1.98 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.78 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham dominate most of the game, except maybe for the very end when they have to play with ten men due to an injury after all three subs are already made, but it remains goalless.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f; font-size: x-small;">13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)</span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 1.69 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.60 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Forest Green have a 2:0 lead by the half-hour mark.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f; font-size: x-small;">12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)</span><br />
<br />
Shortens to 1.30 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.45 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham win 4:0.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f; font-size: x-small;">29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)</span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 1.97 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.84 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Aldershot deservedly win 1:0, albeit against ten men for more than half an hour.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f; font-size: x-small;">19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)</span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 1.84 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.68 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Tranmere miss a first-half penalty, but find the winner after the break.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>OUTSIDER BETS (2016):</b><br />
<br />
19 picks<br />
17 points staked<br />
8-0-11<br />
+9.27 points profit<br />
54.5% ROI<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)<br />9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)</span><span style="color: red;"><br />6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)</span><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><br />27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)<br />26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)</span><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><br />16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)<br />16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)<br />23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)<br />5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)</span><span style="color: red;"><br />22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5) </span><br /><span style="color: red;">17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)</span></span><br />
<br />
Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+10.1 points profit, 59.4% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+10.55 points profit, 62.0% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+9.27 points profit, 54.5% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 3.09 - 3.02 - 2.97, which was the case with the Tranmere bet on April 23, or 3.06 - 2.95 - 2.97, which was the case with the Boreham Wood bet on April 16), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were three cases of significant (10% more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the bets on outsiders are concerned:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f; font-size: x-small;">9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)</span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 4.31 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 4.08 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Woking deservedly win 3:1.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f; font-size: x-small;">23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)</span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 3.90 with 12bet/Dafabet by kick-off (it was 3.27 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Braintree take the lead, Wrexham equalise and take the lead, but then Braintree equalise and find the winner.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5) </span><br />
<br />
Drifts out to 3.42 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 3.20 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Sutton are probably a bit better team in the opening half, while Barrow are probably a bit better team after the break, but it remains goalless.<br />
<br /></div>
skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-9070626695212788652017-01-17T13:30:00.000+00:002017-01-17T13:30:25.044+00:00December 2016 reviewIt looks like I've managed to celebrate the 10th birthday of <b><a href="http://www.skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">Skeeve Picks</a></b> after all - by taking a one-month break from blogging. I'm not going anywhere though, so I can already announce the next couple of posts I plan to finish and publish in the next five or six days, the first of which will be the 2016 review and the second of which will be an article on the increasingly popular topic of kick-off/closing odds. I've been recording and comparing the pre-mail odds (those available before I send the pick to my clients), the recorded odds (those recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst) and the kick-off (or, if you want, closing) odds since the beginning of the 2010/2011 season, which means I now have quite a lot of data to analyze, so I'm looking forward to finishing and publishing that article.<br />
<br />
As far as December is concerned, there were only three official picks which produced a modest +0.26 point profit at a 5.7% ROI.<br />
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">3/12 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)</span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">17/12 NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">17/12 NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)</span><br />
<br />
3 picks<br />
4.5 points staked<br />
1-1-1<br />
+0.26 point profit<br />
5.7% ROI<br />
0.4% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<br />
December definitely wasn't the busiest month, but it was still the seventh profitable month out of eight "active" months in 2016 - more on that in the upcoming 2016 review. Also, I've now switched back to the usual (or, if you want, full) stakes for the second half of the season (January-May), so four-point asian handicap bets, one-point bets on outsiders and one-point unofficial last-minute bets.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;">3/12 NL: (-0.25) BROMLEY - Maidstone (1.77 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (+0.38)</span><br style="color: #6aa84f;" /><span style="color: red;">17/12 NL: Southport - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.49 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:3 (-0.5)</span><br />
<br />
2 picks<br />
1 point staked<br />
1-0-1<br />
-0.12 point loss<br />
-12.0% ROI<br />
<br />
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks in December, but as you can see, there was only a couple of bets.skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-56662641560504971992016-12-13T22:59:00.001+00:002016-12-14T03:11:22.255+00:00Lincoln City 2016/17Instead of redesigning the old website, joining twitter or at least getting drunk, I've decided to analyze twenty FA Trophy games for the <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">Skeeve Picks</a></b> service's 10th birthday yesterday, so I thought I'd take a break from that and share a sample of my work in the form of everything there is to know about the only National League team that wasn't in FA Trophy action this weekend (their match away at Shaw Lane was postponed after the Northern Premier League Division One South - which is three tiers down the pyramid - outfit allegedly fielded a suspended player in the last (qualifying) round of the competition, which was followed by an FA investigation), Lincoln City. Here's to the next ten! :)<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><b>LINCOLN CITY 2016/17</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Farman/Walton</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Wood/Beevers – <b>Raggett</b>/McCombe/Fixter – Waterfall/Howe/Weatherell – <b>Habergham</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Hawkridge/<b>Anderson </b>– </span>Power/<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Whitehouse</b>/<i>Everington </i>– <b>Woodyard/</b></span><i><b>Miles</b></i><b style="font-family: inherit;">/</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Wright </i></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">– </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">Arnold/</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Muldoon/</span><i style="font-family: inherit;">Hodge</i></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Robinson</b>/McMenemy/</span><i style="font-family: inherit;">Acar </i></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">–</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Rhead/<b>Marriott</b>/<i>Simmons</i></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vfO6wMxOLgI/WFBwWo1-mzI/AAAAAAAAAIg/PQkt_ErkFIcg0oJmTov81tttF2Ovs9JSgCEw/s1600/lincoln%2Bcity%2B2016_17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="105" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vfO6wMxOLgI/WFBwWo1-mzI/AAAAAAAAAIg/PQkt_ErkFIcg0oJmTov81tttF2Ovs9JSgCEw/s400/lincoln%2Bcity%2B2016_17.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Latest managerial changes:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">1/5/2016 Moyses out</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">14/5/2016 Cowley in</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Currently injured:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Beevers (right-back, long-term)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Currently suspended: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Raggett (centre-back, two more games)</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Transfers in: </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">11/6 Woodyard (mid, Braintree)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>21/6 Miles (mid, Braintree)</i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">23/6 Habergham (left-back, Braintree)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">27/6 Marriott (striker, Stevenage)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>20/7 Margetts (striker, Tranmere) </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">27/7 Arnold (winger, Grimsby)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">3/8 Raggett (centre back, Dover) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">15/8 Anderson (winger, Peterborough, loan until Jan 1) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>1/9 Bonne (striker, Colchester, loan until Oct 26, recalled early on Oct 13) </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>13/9 Champion (mid, Barnet, loan until Dec 14, recalled early on Oct 19) </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">8/10 Robinson (striker, Port Vale)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">21/10 Whitehouse (mid, Nuneaton)</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Transfers out: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>23/5 Brown (def, Boston)</i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>23/5 Diagne (def, Hemel Hempstead) </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>23/5 Grant (keeper, Corby)</i></span><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">23/5 </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Sparrow </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">(mid, Sorrento) </span></span></i><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>23/5 Hearn (striker, Alfreton) </i></span><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">9/6 </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tempest </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">(mid, Nuneaton) </span></span></i><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>15/6 C.Robinson (striker, North Ferriby) </i></span><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">26/6 </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">Bush </b><span style="font-family: inherit;">(def, Chelmsford)</span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">31/8 </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">Margetts </b><span style="font-family: inherit;">(striker, joint top scorer, 5 goals, Scunthorpe) </span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">26/9 </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Stanley (mid)</span></span></i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Currently out on loan:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>Everington (mid, Buxton)</i></span><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Wright (mid, Grantham)</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Acar (striker, Spalding)</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Simmons (striker, Halifax)</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Miles (mid, Boston Utd)</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Hodge (mid, Telford)</span></i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Recently returned from loan:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Howe (def, Southport, loan until Nov 25, returned, FA Cup-tied)</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Chronology:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">14.5. manager Cowley switches from Braintree along with his brother and assistant</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">23.5. Brown, Diagne, Grant, Sparrow and Hearn are all released / Farman, Beevers, Hawkridge, McCombe, Power, Rhead, Waterfall, Wood, Bush, Muldoon and Stanley are already under contract / Everington, Hodge, Howe, Simmons and Wright are offered new terms / youngsters Acar and Walton are offered their first professional terms / Robinson and Tempest are invited to pre-season training</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">30.5. top scorer Rhead's transfer request was accepted</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">11.6. Braintree's midfielder Woodyard signs a one-year deal</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">21.6. now attacking midfielder Miles also follows Cowley from Braintree and signs a one-year deal</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">23.6. and now left-</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">back Habergham also follows Cowley and signs a two-year deal</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">26.6. versatile first-choice centre/right-back Bush leaves to sign for National League South outift Chelmsford</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">27.6. striker Marriott signs a one-year deal after a season dogged with injuries with Stevenage</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">20.7. striker Margetts signs a one-year deal after being at rivals Tranmere last season</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">27.7. winger Arnold signs a two-year deal after leaving League Two newcomers Grimsby</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">2.8. top scorer Rhead signs a new two-year deal, even though the club initially accepted his transfer request in late May</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">3.8. centre-back Raggett joins on a two-year deal from rivals Dover</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">15.8. winger Anderson joins from League One outfit Peterborough on loan until January</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">31.8. joint top scorer with five goals so far Margetts joins League One outfit Scunthorpe on transfer deadline day</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">1.9. striker Bonne joins on loan from League Two outfit Colchester until October 26</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">13.9. experienced midfielder Champion joins on a 93-day loan from League Two outfit Barnet</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">8.10. former Premier League striker Robinson joins after leaving League One outfit Port Vale in the summer</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">21.10. midfielder Whitehouse joins from National League North outfit Nuneaton on a deal until the end of next season</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-14623816434635596912016-12-01T13:40:00.000+00:002016-12-01T13:40:05.717+00:00November 2016 reviewThere were six official picks in November, three of which landed for a modest +0.42 point profit (4.6% ROI). If nothing else, it was my 6th profitable month (of the seven active months so far) in 2016. As far as the 2016/17 season is concerned, it's still very early days - and I'm still waiting for the first outsider bet to land. As last season, we'll be switching back to full stakes (four points per asian handicap bet, one point per outsider bet) in January.<br />
<br />
<b>OFFICIAL PICKS:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;">5/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)</span><br />
<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><span style="color: #6aa84f;">12/11 NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">12/11 NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">19/11 NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">19/11 NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">26/11 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)</span></span><br />
<br />
6 picks<br />
9 points staked<br />
3-0-3<br />
+0.42 point profit<br />
4.6% ROI<br />
0.7% ROC<br />
(advised bank: 60 points)<br />
<br />
Fun fact: even though the official picks are officially still -0.32 point down for the season so far, the results based on kick-off odds are already in green (+0.57). It seems like the results based on kick-off odds might outperform the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season, but as I record the odds sixty seconds after I send the pick (and with three bookmakers only, which is how I record the kick-off odds as well), that's not really breaking news anymore. Conclusion: you should definitely be able to beat the official results.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<b>UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:</b></div>
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<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><span style="color: red;">12/11 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester (1.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 0.5 point FT 2:2 (-0.5)<br />12/11 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Braintree (1.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (-0.5)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">19/11 NL: (-0.75) BARROW - Solihull (1.84 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (+0.21)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">19/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) SUTTON (1.65 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)</span><br /><span style="color: #6aa84f;">26/11 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Maidstone (1.60 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (+0.3)</span><br /><span style="color: red;">26/11 NL: (0) SOUTHPORT - Braintree (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:5 (-0.5)</span></span><br />
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6 picks<br />
3 points staked<br />
2-0-4<br />
-1.49 point profit<br />
-49.7% ROI<br />
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Not a good month with the unofficial last-minute picks, which are based on late team news and sent at least ten minutes before the kick-off, but as I said, it's very early days and I'm confident this set of picks will be profitable in the long run. These picks are currently -1.05 point down for the season so far - not exactly a disaster and, as with the official picks, we'll be switching to full stakes in January (one point per unofficial last-minute pick). Non-fun fact: it's not an error, Southport have indeed lost 4:5 to Braintree (who were without both first-choice centre-backs Elokobi (who was their key defensive player lately, but returned to parent club Colchester) and Goodman (out injured) and the first-choice replacement centre-back Ashton who was also out injured) after being 3:1 up.</div>
skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3204737634365758799.post-57233728795540927502016-11-30T21:17:00.000+00:002016-11-30T21:17:08.984+00:00twitter: appendixPeople are still talking about <b><a href="http://skeevepicks.com/" target="_blank">Skeeve Picks</a></b> over at twitter and, as much as I'd love to talk to Darran directly, I don't have the bloke's e-mail address (mine is skeevepicks at gmail dot com), so here's another post (hopefully the last one) on the topic.<div>
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Here's what's been said in the meantime:</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: the best non league tipster there has ever been posted their tips for free on the punters lounge forum which he should know well as </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I am told he started off their. If he was making enough money to make a living out of it then he wouldn't need to sell tips in my </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">view. 10 seasons profit is very good but I still don't believe this is his only job as he doesn't to my eye make enough of a profit </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">to sustain a living. I never said I was better than him more the point that I would be much better value for money. For 500 euros I </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">would be expecting tips all season long and way more profit than he is making. As for putting coral up I just state whoever has the </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">best price. The companies he uses are small firms who I suspect no one who follows me has an account for so utter pointless</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">SBC: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">you need to speak with him about this not me.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">if he was so good he would struggle to get on anywhere especially on such a niche market. </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">fair play he is well researched and just being in profit is a fine achievement </span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">SBC: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">What I would suggest is you speak with him directly about this. I am merely passing on his blog post as requested</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">no doubt he will read the tweets as someone clearly tipped him off.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: </span></span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Such a bitter man, Darren. So unsubtle too...</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">not bitter at all. He is welcome to his say as I am mine. Not sure why you are getting involved though</span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">You're always sniping at others involved in same field. You don't own the non-league niche so don't know why you act like it.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span></span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I don't think that at all. Only people I question are ones I don't think are telling the whole truth</span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Sure, you're tone on here suggests otherwise. Where's your results anyway?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">don't keep results. People can either follow me or not. If I felt writing previews were a waste of time I wouldnt do them</span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">You've the temerity to question a professional when you don't even bother keeping results? Hello amateur hour </span></span></div>
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Darran: I</span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">'m not questioning his results more what he offers for a very large amount of money.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">"I'd be much better value for money" - how? You don't even know how good or bad you are. It's basics. Christ.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: being free helps. No one would follow me of I lost and the fact I end up with money in my betting accounts come the end of the season tells me I'm in profit. If I lost money I wouldn't even bother writing the previews as I wouldn't want people to follow me and it would be a waste of time writing them. I only do it to help people make money </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: red;">Charlie: You're not getting it. If you'd tracked results, I'd follow you. To even brand yourself a tipster w/out results in laughable. You're just a bloke who writes a blog with bets, you're not a tipster.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: fair enough your welcome to your opinion. Like I say I am free so don't go chasing readers.</span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> also racing post have tipsters yet they never publish their stats either</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: They do, annually.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: no they don't. Never seen any profit or loss from any racing or sport tipsters in the paper.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: They do.</span></span></div>
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As much fun as this has been, it's taken way too much time already, so I'll just comment on the key bits:</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: the best non league tipster there has ever been posted their tips for free on the punters lounge forum which he should know well as </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I am told he started off their</span></div>
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I'm familiar with the Punters Lounge, but have never posted there. I was a resident tipster on the ex-Punters Paradise forum back in 2007 though.</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran:</span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> If he was making enough money to make a living out of it then he wouldn't need to sell tips in my </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">view. 10 seasons profit is very good but I still don't believe this is his only job as he doesn't to my eye make enough of a profit </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">to sustain a living.</span></div>
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And there's the good old "why would you sell tips if you're a good tipster?" gem of a question again. Well done.</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran:</span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> As for putting coral up I just state whoever has the </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">best price. The companies he uses are small firms who I suspect no one who follows me has an account for so utter pointless</span></div>
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Here's a new slogan for Pinnacle - winners welcome, so utter pointless.</div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">if he was so good he would struggle to get on anywhere especially on such a niche market.</span></div>
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Has Darran ever heard of winners-welcome bookmakers?</div>
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And all this from a fellow "indie music lover, especially Blur". Modern life is rubbish. :(</div>
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Charlie: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Where's your results anyway?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Darran: </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">don't keep results. People can either follow me or not.</span></div>
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skeevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08816461866169525519noreply@blogger.com0