2016 review

OFFICIAL PICKS (2016):

49 picks
121 points staked
25-5-19
+19.49 points profit
16.1% ROI
32.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)
30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)
6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)
27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)
27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)
5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)
5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1)
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1)
19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)
19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)
2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)
16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)
16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)
16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)
23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88)
5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)
22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)

I think it's fair to say that 2016 wasn't a bad year at Skeeve Picks at all. Seven of the eight "active" months in 2016 were profitable (January, February, March, April, May, November and December were all profitable, while the only losing month was October with it's -0.74 point loss). The worst losing run was -8.4 between March 25 and April 9. The worst losing weekend (April 9) produced a six-point loss. Of the 25 "active" weekends in 2016, 19 were profitable (as were 30 of the last 37 "active" weekends, ending with the three consecutive profitable weekends so far in January 2017).

ASIAN HANDICAP BETS (2016):

30 picks
104 points staked
17-5-8
+10.22 points profit
9.8% ROI

9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)
30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)
27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)
5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)
25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)
2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0) 
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4) 
16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)
23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)
30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88) 
22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76) 
5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2) 
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76) 
17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)

Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+12.6 points profit, 12.1% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+12.47 points profit, 11.9% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+10.22 points profit, 9.8% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were five cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the asian handicap bets are concerned:

9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)

Drifts out to 1.98 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.78 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham dominate most of the game, except maybe for the very end when they have to play with ten men due to an injury after all three subs are already made, but it remains goalless.

13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)

Drifts out to 1.69 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.60 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Forest Green have a 2:0 lead by the half-hour mark.

12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)

Shortens to 1.30 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.45 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham win 4:0.

29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)

Drifts out to 1.97 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.84 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Aldershot deservedly win 1:0, albeit against ten men for more than half an hour.

19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)

Drifts out to 1.84 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.68 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Tranmere miss a first-half penalty, but find the winner after the break.


OUTSIDER BETS (2016):

19 picks
17 points staked
8-0-11
+9.27 points profit
54.5% ROI

9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)
13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)
5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1) 
12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1) 
19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)
16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)
16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)
22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5) 
19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5) 
17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)

Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+10.1 points profit, 59.4% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+10.55 points profit, 62.0% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+9.27 points profit, 54.5% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 3.09 - 3.02 - 2.97, which was the case with the Tranmere bet on April 23, or 3.06 - 2.95 - 2.97, which was the case with the Boreham Wood bet on April 16), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were three cases of significant (10% more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the bets on outsiders are concerned:

9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)

Drifts out to 4.31 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 4.08 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Woking deservedly win 3:1.

23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)

Drifts out to 3.90 with 12bet/Dafabet by kick-off (it was 3.27 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Braintree take the lead, Wrexham equalise and take the lead, but then Braintree equalise and find the winner.

12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5) 

Drifts out to 3.42 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 3.20 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Sutton are probably a bit better team in the opening half, while Barrow are probably a bit better team after the break, but it remains goalless.

December 2016 review

It looks like I've managed to celebrate the 10th birthday of Skeeve Picks after all - by taking a one-month break from blogging. I'm not going anywhere though, so I can already announce the next couple of posts I plan to finish and publish in the next five or six days, the first of which will be the 2016 review and the second of which will be an article on the increasingly popular topic of kick-off/closing odds. I've been recording and comparing the pre-mail odds (those available before I send the pick to my clients), the recorded odds (those recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst) and the kick-off (or, if you want, closing) odds since the beginning of the 2010/2011 season, which means I now have quite a lot of data to analyze, so I'm looking forward to finishing and publishing that article.

As far as December is concerned, there were only three official picks which produced a modest +0.26 point profit at a 5.7% ROI.

OFFICIAL PICKS:

3/12 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York  (1.38 @SBO) 2 points  FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17/12 NL: (0) YORK - Torquay  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:0 (+/-0)
17/12 NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE  (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (-0.5)

3 picks
4.5 points staked
1-1-1
+0.26 point profit
5.7% ROI
0.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

December definitely wasn't the busiest month, but it was still the seventh profitable month out of eight "active" months in 2016 - more on that in the upcoming 2016 review. Also, I've now switched back to the usual (or, if you want, full) stakes for the second half of the season (January-May), so four-point asian handicap bets, one-point bets on outsiders and one-point unofficial last-minute bets.


UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:

3/12 NL: (-0.25) BROMLEY - Maidstone  (1.77 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (+0.38)
17/12 NL: Southport - (0) EASTLEIGH  (1.49 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:3 (-0.5)

2 picks
1 point staked
1-0-1
-0.12 point loss
-12.0% ROI

A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks in December, but as you can see, there was only a couple of bets.