Sunday, 29 October 2017

October 2017 review


OFFICIAL PICKS:

21/10 NL: Leyton Orient - MACCLESFIELD  (2.99 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:1 (+0.995)
28/10 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Halifax  (1.53 @Pinnacle, SBO, Dafabet) 2 points  FT 4:2 (+1.06)

2 picks
2.5 points staked
2-0-0
+2.055 points profit
82.2% ROI
4.1% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A perfect start to the 2017/18 season as both the half-a-point outsider bet on Macclesfield last weekend and the two-point odds-on bet on Tranmere this weekend landed for +2.055 points profit in October. As you might know, I won't be returning to the usual stakes (four points per asian handicap odds-on bet, one point per outsider bet) before January, so it's another couple of months of 50% smaller stakes before the traditionally super-profitable 2nd half of the season (January-May).

I've recently found out that some of my clients can only take the main asian handicap bets, while others can only take the straight home/away win bets, so I've started recording these odds and results as well and I've done a test to see what would've happened if I'd been taking all of my bets as one-point flat-stake main asian handicap bets (half-a-point flat stakes in October, November and December) and as one-point flat-stake home/away win bets (half-a-point flat stakes in October, November and December) in the past two years (based on closing odds), including two picks from this month (based on recorded odds, those available sixty seconds after I send the pick).

2015/16 + 2016/17 + 2017/18 SO FAR

OFFICIAL RESULTS:
100 picks
240.5 points staked
+52.39 points profit
21.8% ROI
(worst losing run: -8.4)
(advised bank: 50 points)

MAIN ASIAN HANDICAPS:
100 picks
87.5 points staked
+19.06 points profit
21.8% ROI
(worst losing run: -3.33)
(advised bank: 15 points)

STRAIGHT HOME/AWAY WINS:
100 picks
87.5 points staked
+34.41 points profit
39.3% ROI
(worst losing run: -4.89)
(advised bank: 20 points)

It's a small sample of only 100 picks and it's been a couple of excellent campaigns (I've discussed these results in more detail with my clients), but it will be interesting to see how these bets do over the next couple of years.

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