Wednesday, 30 November 2016

twitter

First of all, I have nothing against twitter. I get that we now live in a fast and furious world and that we sometimes don't even have the time for those 140 characters, but as Skeeve Picks clients know, I probably wouldn't even be able to say "hi everybody" in less than 140 characters, so I think I'll stay away from twitter for the time being.

Anyway, the guys from the Secret Betting Club have just tweeted about my service's upcoming 10th birthday (December 12) and a free trial I've decided to offer to their members (and my ex-clients) to celebrate the birthday and their tweets have caught some attention. One of the people who felt the need to comment was my non-league tipping colleague Darran who is apparently sharing his non-league picks for free and struggling to understand why on earth would I charge for my hard work. Here's how that conversation went:

SBC: Great news just in - SBC members can enjoy a free trial with non league tipster Skeeve FREE for the whole of December. Details on site soon

Darran: is he any good? Very rare to see a non-league tipster you have to pay for

SBC: Indeed, he is good, no doubt due to the hard work and study he puts in. This is his 10th year of tipping

Darran: strange I haven't come across him before then if he has been tipping for so long. Is he on here?

SBC: We have been tracking and reporting on him for several years. Not active on social media

Darran: so where has he posted his tips previously? Just interested as I tip on non-league for free so interested to hear about others

SBC: Tips posted via email. His website is and also featured by @12Xpert

Darran: cheers will have a closer look when I get chance. Prob better to describe him as a national league tipster as only covers 1 league

SBC: Yes probably - most people are more familiar with the term non-league rather than 'national league' . Force of habit

Darran: Must admit I think the guy is a rip off. Yes he makes a profit, but he costs a fortune for what he offers. Also I struggle to believe he is a full time punter just punting on the National League especially given he doesn't do the whole season

SBC: would have to respectfully disagree having proofed and verified his record for several years. Several reviews om SBC site

Darran: 500Euros is a hell of a lot of money to be paying in my view esp when I am free. He clearly puts in a lot of work though

Charlie: Quite cute that you're not even tactical about your jealousy that others successfully tip and punt the non-league

Darran: I know bullshit when I see it though & he would not be able to make a full time living just punting on the national league

Charlie: The lady doth protest too much, methinks. Appreciate there's many more with outstanding expertise in the same field, fella.

Darran: would you pay 500 euros for what he offers.?

Charlie: Dude, just accept it's a competitive area of expertise and some are probably better at what they do than you. No shame in that

Darran: It isnt that competitive an area as very few focus on non league. Given I am free and he costs a small fortune it isnt really a competition anyway. If I charged then it would be a competition but I never would

Charlie: Just because you don't know them or aren't aware of them, doesn't mean they dont exist. What's your P&L/results like?

I don't know Charlie, but I really like his comments and questions and, like Charlie, I am still waiting for Darran to answer Charlie's question about his past results.

If I'm not wrong, Darran is currently sharing his non-league tips for free over at Fighting Tips. As the page dedicated to his non-league picks is basically wiped clean each time he advises new bets so that you can only see the current picks and not a single past result, it really is a good question. Here's what will be on the page until Darran advises the weekend picks:

Maidstone v Eastleigh

I see no reason not to carry on opposing Maidstone who were easily beaten by Lincoln on Saturday and with teams below them winning they are now only 2 points clear of the relegation zone. Eastleigh put in a stinker themselves at the weekend when losing 3-0 at home to Chester. It was a case of lots of possession but a lack of quality in front of goal which cost Eastleigh dear. It was a lack of goals which cost them at times last season as well and I am surprised that it isn’t an area Ronnie Moore has tried to strengthen as he must know it is a weak point. Maidstone are there for the taking though and Moore will be desperate to get a reaction and if they are to play a part in the title race they have to get 3 points here. Eastleigh have only lost twice on their travels although the fact they have drawn 6 is a minor concern, but I think the 3G pitch will suit their style of play and Maidstone have only won twice at home all season. Coral’s 6/5 looks a nice price.

York City v Guiseley

After putting Guiseley up a couple of weeks ago to win at Dover I made a mental note not to back them away from home again as they struggled against a side who had played less than 48 hours previously. Rules are made to be broken though and I have to back them here to beat a York side who look in a right state. I was certainly glad I put Bromley up on Saturday and York were terrible in a 3-0 defeat. Obviously there is still plenty of time for them to get out of the mess they are in, but I am not sure how Gary Mills is going to get in the players he needs given their is clearly little money available to strengthen. The fact they are odds on for a bottom four finish tells you that the bookies don’t expect them to get out of it. Guiseley are also odds on for the drop, but they certainly look more capable of survival than York do at the minute. Their home form is solid enough and they had a cracking 3-1 win over in form Boreham Wood on Saturday. The issue is their away form and no wins, 1 draw, 10 defeats with just 6 goals scored tells its own story. I would imagine though that they are putting their focus into their home games and this match offers a rare chance of actually gaining an away 3 points. I put Guiseley up when they won the reverse of this fixture and that was their first win of the season and at Coral’s 5/2 it is well worth a bet of lightening striking twice. York look so bad at the moment and Guiseley look the better side.

Tips

Eastleigh 2.5pts
Guiseley 1pt

Darran's lost both of these bets, which obviously happens sometimes (I'm traditionally staying away from the midweek games, but that's another story), but that's far from being the point I'll try and make. First of all, there's the stake - two and a half points on Eastleigh (who have subsequently lost the game 1:2) and one point on Guiseley (who have subsequently only managed to share points in a 1:1 draw). That's absolutely fine as Darran probably saw more value in the Eastleigh bet and I'm sure 2.5 and 1 aren't just random numbers thrown in here. However, if you're advising a particular stake for one bet and a particular stake for the other, people who are reading your picks and previews should know why those numbers and not some other. A table with past results would be helpful, as would the recommended betting bank.

Then there's the bookmaker. Believe it or not, but Darran quoted the Coral odds for both of his midweek bets and I wouldn't be surprised if he sometimes quotes the StanJames odds or the BetVictor odds. All of these are fine if you're a mug punter or, in other words, bookies' wet dream, but if you're beating bookmakers on a regular basis (have I mentioned my ten consecutive profitable seasons yet?), surely you won't be welcome at the likes of Coral, StanJames or BetVictor for long. Skeeve Picks clients definitely aren't able to bet with those bookmakers.

Anyway, there's plenty of things Darran wrote I would like to comment on, so let me try and go step by step.

Darran: is he any good? Very rare to see a non-league tipster you have to pay for

The best things in life may be free, but the most profitable and hard-working tipsters shouldn't be.

Darran: 500Euros is a hell of a lot of money to be paying in my view esp when I am free. He clearly puts in a lot of work though

Thanks Darran! I do. And if it's too much money, there's always plenty of free tipsters around.

Darran: I know bullshit when I see it though & he would not be able to make a full time living just punting on the national league

Well, you can obviously choose not to believe me, but I've been doing this for ten years and only this for the last eight. Have I mentioned my ten consecutive profitable seasons yet? :)

Darran: would you pay 500 euros for what he offers.?

I certainly would. As I wrote many times, find me a football tipster with a 12% ROI after ten consecutive profitable seasons and I'm in.

Darran: It isnt that competitive an area as very few focus on non league. Given I am free and he costs a small fortune it isnt really a competition anyway. If I charged then it would be a competition but I never would

I get that. If you want to make money with your tips on a regular basis, you have to spend as much time on research/analysis as you would on your 8 to 4 job, if not more.

I've visited Darran's twitter account a found a very indicative exchange of thoughts between him and a guy named Craig:

Craig: Eastleigh solid bet as you say. Guiseley value in dogfight, ill follow you in. Is miller back for Dover? If so, value @ 2/1!

Darran: I would imagine so although wouldn't know for certain

Miller wasn't just back for Dover's game at Sutton yesterday - he was in the starting eleven on Saturday at Macclesfield, but the game was abandoned shortly after the break due to fog, which is probably why Darran wasn't sure about it. And that's the key if you ask me - as this is my full-time job, I can't afford not to be sure about bits of team news like that (after all, Miller's the National League top scorer). I can't afford not to analyse every single game both a priori and a posteriori. This is my job and I can't do it any other way but the best it could be done to my understanding. Here's an example of my preview.

Anyway, I'm glad the service has caught some attention at twitter, but I really don't think I should join that social network. If I can't say half of what I wanted in more than 2000 characters, imagine how frustrated I'd be trying to say something in less than 140.

Also:

Charlie: Just because you don't know them or aren't aware of them, doesn't mean they dont exist. What's your P&L/results like?

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