time

As you might have noticed, the new National League season starts in a few days. As you also might have noticed, there have been no new posts on this blog since March. As much as I don't like it, I guess it's become obvious that I can't find enough time for the blog and - as far as motivation is concerned - it's not like I can remember when was the last time that I had someone's comment here on the blog, which doesn't make the whole experience as interactive as I would like it to be, but I can always join twitter, can't I?

Circumstances change though and it's quite possible that I'll return to regular blogging in a few days, months or years, which is why I won't delete the blog, but I don't see much sense in posting monthly reviews when my clients are already getting updates on a weekly basis (I update the website on the weekly basis as well) during the season and I obviously can't find the time for other articles on betting at this point. Things are obviously different if you're a client - I've recently sent all clients a ten-page report based on the survey I conducted this summer and I've also just finished writing a rather detailed intro e-mail to the 2018/19 season, which I'll be sending to all clients on August 1.

Instead of writing a new post about ten years of proofing my selections to Secret Betting Club, I've prepared some very nice one-off discounts for SBC members (maybe I'll write another post on the topic in March 2019, when it will be eleven years of proofing my bets to SBC). If you want to take a look at the 2017/18 season review, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks at gmail dot com) and I'll send you the review - that much I'm willing to share with non-clients.

In other news, I'll be introducing an additional "VIP" service this season (for instance, I'll be sharing my in-play selections for the first time) - if you want to know more, you can always join my waiting list (by sending me an e-mail). If enough people who are already on the waiting list decide not to join the service after all, you might even get an invitation to join before the first 2018/19 selections.

I really don't think of this as my final goodbye to blogging - I think of it as another break. In the meantime, there are still some excellent bloggers out there such as Cassini - for example, take a look at this recent hillarious post.

I'll be back.

February 2018 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

3/2 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Ebbsfleet  (1.44 @SBO) 4 points  FT 3:0 (+1.76)
3/2 NL: Torquay - BARROW  (2.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 3:1 (-1)
10/2 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Halifax  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:1 (-2)
10/2 NL: Ebbsfleet - SOLIHULL  (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:0 (-1)
17/2 NL: (0) ALDERSHOT - Macclesfield  (1.48 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:2 (-4)
17/2 NL: Chester - (0) EASTLEIGH  (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:1 (-4)
17/2 NL: Boreham Wood - GATESHEAD  (4.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:1 (-1)
24/2 NL: Maidstone - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 2:3 (+2.6)

8 picks
23 points staked
2-0-6
-8.64 points loss
-37.6% ROI
-17.3% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A rare horror month with as many as six of the eight bets failing miserably for a -8.64 point loss and featuring the worst losing run (twelve points lost in only eight days) since early 2015, but to be honest, a poor month (or, if you want, a "correction") was probably long overdue (it was only the third losing month since March 2015) - the ROI for the season was absolutely ridiculous (and unattainable in the long run) in early February.

On a brighter note, I've recently won another couple of Secret Betting Club awards as I've been voted both the second best tipster and the second best sports tipster in 2017 by SBC members. Thanks to everyone who voted!

It's now exactly ten years since I've started proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club, but more on that in my next blog post.

January 2018 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

6/1 NL: (0) WREXHAM - Torquay  (1.33 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 4:0 (+1.32)
13/1 NL: Woking - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.42 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+1.68)
20/1 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Maidenhead  (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:2 (+1.16)
20/1 NL: Maidstone - EASTLEIGH  (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:3 (+2.03)
20/1 NL: Torquay - BROMLEY  (2.71 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 0:4 (+1.71)
27/1 NL: Ebbsfleet - BOREHAM WOOD  (2.61 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 0:3 (+1.61)
27/1 NL: Leyton Orient - ALDERSHOT  (2.57 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:3 (+1.57)

7 picks
16 points staked
7-0-0
+11.08 points profit
69.3% ROI
22.2% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A perfect month with seven out of seven, including as many as four outsider bets. I can only hope for another perfect month some time in 2019, because I doubt it could happen twice in a year.

Btw I've also advised a couple of unofficial long-term bets before I returned to the official picks in mid-October, but I wasn't able to take the bets myself (and neither were most of my clients, unfortunately) as they were (and still are) only available with BetVictor, Skybet and Betway, so not exactly the most winners-friendly bookmakers out there. I know that some of my clients managed to take the bets though (not for as much as they wanted, but still) and I'm glad they did. Anyway, both long-term bets were in the "top seven finish" market - starting with this season, there's a new six-team play-off system in the National League. The first bet was Aldershot (to finish in the top seven), advised on September 23. The best odds were 1.73 with Skybet (1.67 with Betway, 1.57 with BetVictor) and anything better than 1.40 looked great to me back then - they're only 1.13 now with both Skybet and Betway (1.10 with BetVictor). The second bet was Wrexham (to finish in the top seven), advised on October 7. The best odds were 2.75 with BetVictor (2.50 with Betway, 2.38 with Skybet) and anything better than 2.20 looked great to me back then - they're only 1.22 now with Betway (1.20 with Skybet, 1.17 with BetVictor).

2017 review

2017 was another excellent year here at Skeeve Picks. The official profit of +25.09 points at a 20.7% ROI and a 43.1% ROC means it was the best year in terms of ROC since 2011 and the best year in terms of ROI since 2009 (!), but as always, there were ways of achieving even better results. For instance, the results based on closing odds (+26.17 points profit at a 21.6% ROI and a 45.2% ROC) have once again outperformed the official results and most of us (myself included, of course) are now using a forty-point bank instead of the officially recommended fifty-point bank.

Only one of the eight "active" months in 2017 failed to produce some profit - that was May with it's one play-off bet that failed miserably. The other seven months were all profitable, the best of which by far was April with nine of the ten bets landing (+13.35 points profit at a 39.3% ROI). There were 25 "active" weekends in 2017, 18 of which were profitable, and the worst losing run was only -4.8 points (February 18 - February 25).

The asian handicap bets produced +18.02 points profit at a 17.7% ROI (at recorded odds) in 2017 and it's great to see all seven types of asian handicap bets I'm currently advising in profit since the summer of 2013. I'll write a lot more about the asian handicap bets, both over the course of the current season and in the last five years, in the 2017/18 season review.

The bets on outsiders had another excellent year as well - that's +7.07 points profit at a 37.2% ROI, but as you can see, the bets on away outsiders are doing much, much better than the bets on home outsiders, which is why there were no bets on home outsiders so far this season (since May) and I'd need to see plenty of value indeed to advise an official outsider bet on a home team in the 2nd half of the current (2017/18) season. Since I've first started advising the bets on outsiders in 2015 (at one-point flat stakes during the 2nd half of the season and at half-a-point flat stakes during the 1st half of the season, so in October, November and December), 70 picks produced +25.67 points profit at a 41.4% ROI (the outsider bets were only advised as unofficial picks in early 2015, before the start of the 2015/16 season, and as official picks ever since). I'll write a lot more about the bets on outsiders in the 2017/18 season review as well.

As I have some clients who can only take the main asian handicap bets and also some clients who can only take the straight home/away win bets, I've decided to check out the results I would've achieved if I'd been taking all bets as one-point flat-stake main asian handicap bets (half-a-point flat-stake in October, November and December) and also as one-point flat-stake straight home/away win bets (half-a-point flat-stake in October, November and December) since I've made the latest set of key adjustments to the service in the summer of 2015. The results are very interesting indeed - as far as 2017 is concerned, the main asian handicap bets (recorded at closing odds) would've produced +9.32 points profit at a 20.9% ROI, which is quite similar to the official ROI (20.7% at recorded odds, 21.6% at closing odds), but the straight home/away win bets (also recorded at closing odds) would've done significantly better with +16.22 points profit at a 36.4% ROI, mostly due to some successful big-priced outsiders. However, 2017 isn't exactly a one-off as the straight home/away win bets would've made +34.7 points profit in the last two and a half years, at a 37.3% ROI and with the worst losing run of only -4.89 points (February 18 - March 11, 2017), which is why, in theory, a twenty-point bank should be more than enough. The main asian handicaps would've made +20.33 points profit in the last two and a half years, at a 21.9% ROI and with the worst losing run of only -3.63 points (February 25 - March 11, 2017), which is why, in theory, a fifteen-point bank should be more than enough. 

As I've only mentioned these alternative ways of taking the bets shortly before the start of the current (2017/18) season for the first time (and only because I found out about clients who are taking these kinds of bets instead of the official bets), I can't officially recommend taking these bets instead of (unless you have to) or in addition to the official picks, but I'll take a closer look at both main asian handicaps and straight home/away win bets in the summer.

Anyway, there's plenty to look forward to, both in 2018 and in the years to come, and it's good to know that there's many alternative ways of following these picks if you can't take (some of) the official bets or are more comfortable with some other method. As far as I'm concerned, I'll continue to both take these bets exactly as I advise them and use a forty-point bank.

Btw if you're wondering how on earth did the results based on closing odds outperform the results based on recorded odds (not only in 2017, but for quite a few consecutive years), let me point you to a couple of blog (http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/02/closingkick-off-odds-part-one.html) posts (http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/04/april-fools-day-odds.html).

December 2017 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

2/12 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Maidenhead  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 2:0 (+1.2)
2/12 NL: Halifax - BARROW  (2.57 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (+0.785)
9/12 NL: (-0.5) ALDERSHOT - Halifax  (1.50 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (-2)
9/12 NL: Eastleigh - BROMLEY  (3.28 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:4 (-0.5)
23/12 NL: Bromley - (0) MACCLESFIELD  (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 1:1 (+/-0)
23/12 NL: Woking - BARROW  (2.50 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 1:2 (+0.75)

6 picks
7.5 points staked
3-1-2
+0.235 point profit
3.1% ROI
0.5% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

I'm not sure why I'm keeping the advised bank at fifty points when I'm both using a forty-point bank myself and "unofficially recommending" it to everyone who asks, but I'm not going to change it in the middle of the campaign - I've only changed the official recommendation from sixty to fifty points in the summer, but I'd have to go on a horrible losing run not to change it to forty points (officially, unofficially, superficially and extraficially) after the current season ends and I take a closer look at the results in the last three seasons or, if you want, since I've made the latest key adjustments to the service in the summer of 2015.

Anyway, December 2017 was another profitable month - barely, but still. The outsider bets were one goal short of a perfect 3/3 record in December and produced a +1.035 point profit, but the asian handicap bets on favorites had a mixed month with one win, one loss and one void and produced a -0.8 point loss. As I was in red going into the last active weekend in December, there will once again be no complaints from yours truly.

2017 turned out to be an amazing year (the best ROC since 2011 and the best ROI since 2009!), but more on that in my next post. I was far from being the busiest blogger in 2017 and I'll be far from being the busiest blogger in 2018, but I should probably try and write a couple of posts per month that aren't monthly reviews. The actual work obviously comes first, but I'll do my best to find a bit more time for the old blog in 2018.

I'm very late, but Happy New Year, everybody! :)