twitter: appendix

People are still talking about Skeeve Picks over at twitter and, as much as I'd love to talk to Darran directly, I don't have the bloke's e-mail address (mine is skeevepicks at gmail dot com), so here's another post (hopefully the last one) on the topic.

Here's what's been said in the meantime:

Darran: the best non league tipster there has ever been posted their tips for free on the punters lounge forum which he should know well as I am told he started off their. If he was making enough money to make a living out of it then he wouldn't need to sell tips in my view. 10 seasons profit is very good but I still don't believe this is his only job as he doesn't to my eye make enough of a profit to sustain a living. I never said I was better than him more the point that I would be much better value for money. For 500 euros I would be expecting tips all season long and way more profit than he is making. As for putting coral up I just state whoever has the best price. The companies he uses are small firms who I suspect no one who follows me has an account for so utter pointless

SBC: you need to speak with him about this not me.

Darran: if he was so good he would struggle to get on anywhere especially on such a niche market. fair play he is well researched and just being in profit is a fine achievement

SBC: What I would suggest is you speak with him directly about this. I am merely passing on his blog post as requested

Darran: no doubt he will read the tweets as someone clearly tipped him off.

Charlie: Such a bitter man, Darren. So unsubtle too...

Darran: not bitter at all. He is welcome to his say as I am mine. Not sure why you are getting involved though

Charlie: You're always sniping at others involved in same field. You don't own the non-league niche so don't know why you act like it.

Darran: I don't think that at all. Only people I question are ones I don't think are telling the whole truth

Charlie: Sure, you're tone on here suggests otherwise. Where's your results anyway?

Darran: don't keep results. People can either follow me or not. If I felt writing previews were a waste of time I wouldnt do them

Charlie: You've the temerity to question a professional when you don't even bother keeping results? Hello amateur hour

Darran: I'm not questioning his results more what he offers for a very large amount of money.

Charlie: "I'd be much better value for money" - how? You don't even know how good or bad you are. It's basics. Christ.

Darran: being free helps. No one would follow me of I lost and the fact I end up with money in my betting accounts come the end of the season tells me I'm in profit. If I lost money I wouldn't even bother writing the previews as I wouldn't want people to follow me and it would be a waste of time writing them. I only do it to help people make money

Charlie: You're not getting it. If you'd tracked results, I'd follow you. To even brand yourself a tipster w/out results in laughable. You're just a bloke who writes a blog with bets, you're not a tipster.

Darran: fair enough your welcome to your opinion. Like I say I am free so don't go chasing readers. also racing post have tipsters yet they never publish their stats either

Charlie: They do, annually.

Darran: no they don't. Never seen any profit or loss from any racing or sport tipsters in the paper.

Charlie: They do.

As much fun as this has been, it's taken way too much time already, so I'll just comment on the key bits:

Darran: the best non league tipster there has ever been posted their tips for free on the punters lounge forum which he should know well as I am told he started off their

I'm familiar with the Punters Lounge, but have never posted there. I was a resident tipster on the ex-Punters Paradise forum back in 2007 though.

Darran: If he was making enough money to make a living out of it then he wouldn't need to sell tips in my view. 10 seasons profit is very good but I still don't believe this is his only job as he doesn't to my eye make enough of a profit to sustain a living.

And there's the good old "why would you sell tips if you're a good tipster?" gem of a question again. Well done.

Darran: As for putting coral up I just state whoever has the best price. The companies he uses are small firms who I suspect no one who follows me has an account for so utter pointless

Here's a new slogan for Pinnacle - winners welcome, so utter pointless.

Darran: if he was so good he would struggle to get on anywhere especially on such a niche market.

Has Darran ever heard of winners-welcome bookmakers?

And all this from a fellow "indie music lover, especially Blur". Modern life is rubbish. :(

Charlie: Where's your results anyway?

Darran: don't keep results. People can either follow me or not.

twitter

First of all, I have nothing against twitter. I get that we now live in a fast and furious world and that we sometimes don't even have the time for those 140 characters, but as Skeeve Picks clients know, I probably wouldn't even be able to say "hi everybody" in less than 140 characters, so I think I'll stay away from twitter for the time being.

Anyway, the guys from the Secret Betting Club have just tweeted about my service's upcoming 10th birthday (December 12) and a free trial I've decided to offer to their members (and my ex-clients) to celebrate the birthday and their tweets have caught some attention. One of the people who felt the need to comment was my non-league tipping colleague Darran who is apparently sharing his non-league picks for free and struggling to understand why on earth would I charge for my hard work. Here's how that conversation went:

SBC: Great news just in - SBC members can enjoy a free trial with non league tipster Skeeve FREE for the whole of December. Details on site soon

Darran: is he any good? Very rare to see a non-league tipster you have to pay for

SBC: Indeed, he is good, no doubt due to the hard work and study he puts in. This is his 10th year of tipping

Darran: strange I haven't come across him before then if he has been tipping for so long. Is he on here?

SBC: We have been tracking and reporting on him for several years. Not active on social media

Darran: so where has he posted his tips previously? Just interested as I tip on non-league for free so interested to hear about others

SBC: Tips posted via email. His website is http://skeevepicks.com/  and also featured by @12Xpert

Darran: cheers will have a closer look when I get chance. Prob better to describe him as a national league tipster as only covers 1 league

SBC: Yes probably - most people are more familiar with the term non-league rather than 'national league' . Force of habit

Darran: Must admit I think the guy is a rip off. Yes he makes a profit, but he costs a fortune for what he offers. Also I struggle to believe he is a full time punter just punting on the National League especially given he doesn't do the whole season

SBC: would have to respectfully disagree having proofed and verified his record for several years. Several reviews om SBC site

Darran: 500Euros is a hell of a lot of money to be paying in my view esp when I am free. He clearly puts in a lot of work though

Charlie: Quite cute that you're not even tactical about your jealousy that others successfully tip and punt the non-league

Darran: I know bullshit when I see it though & he would not be able to make a full time living just punting on the national league

Charlie: The lady doth protest too much, methinks. Appreciate there's many more with outstanding expertise in the same field, fella.

Darran: would you pay 500 euros for what he offers.?

Charlie: Dude, just accept it's a competitive area of expertise and some are probably better at what they do than you. No shame in that

Darran: It isnt that competitive an area as very few focus on non league. Given I am free and he costs a small fortune it isnt really a competition anyway. If I charged then it would be a competition but I never would

Charlie: Just because you don't know them or aren't aware of them, doesn't mean they dont exist. What's your P&L/results like?

I don't know Charlie, but I really like his comments and questions and, like Charlie, I am still waiting for Darran to answer Charlie's question about his past results.

If I'm not wrong, Darran is currently sharing his non-league tips for free over at Fighting Tips. As the page dedicated to his non-league picks is basically wiped clean each time he advises new bets so that you can only see the current picks and not a single past result, it really is a good question. Here's what will be on the page until Darran advises the weekend picks:

Maidstone v Eastleigh

I see no reason not to carry on opposing Maidstone who were easily beaten by Lincoln on Saturday and with teams below them winning they are now only 2 points clear of the relegation zone. Eastleigh put in a stinker themselves at the weekend when losing 3-0 at home to Chester. It was a case of lots of possession but a lack of quality in front of goal which cost Eastleigh dear. It was a lack of goals which cost them at times last season as well and I am surprised that it isn’t an area Ronnie Moore has tried to strengthen as he must know it is a weak point. Maidstone are there for the taking though and Moore will be desperate to get a reaction and if they are to play a part in the title race they have to get 3 points here. Eastleigh have only lost twice on their travels although the fact they have drawn 6 is a minor concern, but I think the 3G pitch will suit their style of play and Maidstone have only won twice at home all season. Coral’s 6/5 looks a nice price.

York City v Guiseley

After putting Guiseley up a couple of weeks ago to win at Dover I made a mental note not to back them away from home again as they struggled against a side who had played less than 48 hours previously. Rules are made to be broken though and I have to back them here to beat a York side who look in a right state. I was certainly glad I put Bromley up on Saturday and York were terrible in a 3-0 defeat. Obviously there is still plenty of time for them to get out of the mess they are in, but I am not sure how Gary Mills is going to get in the players he needs given their is clearly little money available to strengthen. The fact they are odds on for a bottom four finish tells you that the bookies don’t expect them to get out of it. Guiseley are also odds on for the drop, but they certainly look more capable of survival than York do at the minute. Their home form is solid enough and they had a cracking 3-1 win over in form Boreham Wood on Saturday. The issue is their away form and no wins, 1 draw, 10 defeats with just 6 goals scored tells its own story. I would imagine though that they are putting their focus into their home games and this match offers a rare chance of actually gaining an away 3 points. I put Guiseley up when they won the reverse of this fixture and that was their first win of the season and at Coral’s 5/2 it is well worth a bet of lightening striking twice. York look so bad at the moment and Guiseley look the better side.

Tips

Eastleigh 2.5pts
Guiseley 1pt

Darran's lost both of these bets, which obviously happens sometimes (I'm traditionally staying away from the midweek games, but that's another story), but that's far from being the point I'll try and make. First of all, there's the stake - two and a half points on Eastleigh (who have subsequently lost the game 1:2) and one point on Guiseley (who have subsequently only managed to share points in a 1:1 draw). That's absolutely fine as Darran probably saw more value in the Eastleigh bet and I'm sure 2.5 and 1 aren't just random numbers thrown in here. However, if you're advising a particular stake for one bet and a particular stake for the other, people who are reading your picks and previews should know why those numbers and not some other. A table with past results would be helpful, as would the recommended betting bank.

Then there's the bookmaker. Believe it or not, but Darran quoted the Coral odds for both of his midweek bets and I wouldn't be surprised if he sometimes quotes the StanJames odds or the BetVictor odds. All of these are fine if you're a mug punter or, in other words, bookies' wet dream, but if you're beating bookmakers on a regular basis (have I mentioned my ten consecutive profitable seasons yet?), surely you won't be welcome at the likes of Coral, StanJames or BetVictor for long. Skeeve Picks clients definitely aren't able to bet with those bookmakers.

Anyway, there's plenty of things Darran wrote I would like to comment on, so let me try and go step by step.

Darran: is he any good? Very rare to see a non-league tipster you have to pay for

The best things in life may be free, but the most profitable and hard-working tipsters shouldn't be.

Darran: 500Euros is a hell of a lot of money to be paying in my view esp when I am free. He clearly puts in a lot of work though

Thanks Darran! I do. And if it's too much money, there's always plenty of free tipsters around.

Darran: I know bullshit when I see it though & he would not be able to make a full time living just punting on the national league

Well, you can obviously choose not to believe me, but I've been doing this for ten years and only this for the last eight. Have I mentioned my ten consecutive profitable seasons yet? :)

Darran: would you pay 500 euros for what he offers.?

I certainly would. As I wrote many times, find me a football tipster with a 12% ROI after ten consecutive profitable seasons and I'm in.

Darran: It isnt that competitive an area as very few focus on non league. Given I am free and he costs a small fortune it isnt really a competition anyway. If I charged then it would be a competition but I never would

I get that. If you want to make money with your tips on a regular basis, you have to spend as much time on research/analysis as you would on your 8 to 4 job, if not more.

I've visited Darran's twitter account a found a very indicative exchange of thoughts between him and a guy named Craig:

Craig: Eastleigh solid bet as you say. Guiseley value in dogfight, ill follow you in. Is miller back for Dover? If so, value @ 2/1!

Darran: I would imagine so although wouldn't know for certain

Miller wasn't just back for Dover's game at Sutton yesterday - he was in the starting eleven on Saturday at Macclesfield, but the game was abandoned shortly after the break due to fog, which is probably why Darran wasn't sure about it. And that's the key if you ask me - as this is my full-time job, I can't afford not to be sure about bits of team news like that (after all, Miller's the National League top scorer). I can't afford not to analyse every single game both a priori and a posteriori. This is my job and I can't do it any other way but the best it could be done to my understanding. Here's an example of my preview.

Anyway, I'm glad the service has caught some attention at twitter, but I really don't think I should join that social network. If I can't say half of what I wanted in more than 2000 characters, imagine how frustrated I'd be trying to say something in less than 140.

Also:

Charlie: Just because you don't know them or aren't aware of them, doesn't mean they dont exist. What's your P&L/results like?

unofficial last-minute pick for November 12

NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester  (min. odds: 1.55) 0.5 point

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/tranmere-chester-UBUq16WR/#ah;2;-0.75;0

Tranmere have been doing great since Mellon took over as manager earlier this month - they've won all four league games (2:0 vs Wrexham, 3:0 at Solihull, 1:0 vs North Ferriby and, finally, 4:1 at Dover a fortnight ago), scored ten and only conceded one goal in these four games, they're the third best home team in the league, they have the second best home defence (only five goals conceded in nine home games so far), a perfect home record against teams outside the top-ten (five games, all wins - 2:1 vs Maidstone, 1:0 vs Guiseley, 3:1 vs Woking, 2:0 vs Wrexham, 1:0 vs North Ferriby - nine goals scored and only two goals conceded) and they've just re-signed winger Dawson from rivals Eastleigh and striker Mangan who will once again be excellent at this level of football (he follows manager Mellon from League One outift Shrewsbury). However, they're also missing a few important players (striker Connor Jennings and midfielder Steve Jennings are both still out injured, striker/winger Norwood is suspended and key midfielder Maynard is away on international duty with St. Kitts & Nevis) and they've only scored a 93rd minute winner against poor North Ferriby in their last home game, which is why this is only a possible unofficial half-a-point bet rather than an official two-point bet - I want to see the Chester line-up before I pull the trigger here.

Chester were on an amazing clean-sheet run not so long ago (they'd kept as many as seven consecutive clean sheets - 0:0 at Aldershot, 2:0 vs Guiseley, 1:0 vs Braintree, 0:0 at Wrexham, 5:0 vs Dover, 1:0 at North Ferriby, 1:0 vs Torquay), but they're now without a win in the last four (0:1 at Southport in the FA Cup which was a deserved home win, 1:1 at York thanks to  92nd minute equaliser, 0:0 at Macclesfield which would've been a home win on most days as Macclesfield hit the woodwork thrice and, finally, 2:5 to Lincoln which was a proper kick in the teeth after that run of clean sheets), they've only managed to beat arguably the worst team in the league North Ferriby away from home so far (truth be told, most of their away games were draws and not defeats), they have the third worst away attack in the league with only six goals scored in nine away games so far and they have more than a couple of players unavailable or doubtful - midfielder George is definitely out suspended (and both centre-back Killock and left-back Horwood should still be out injured), but I hope they'll also still be withouth their first-choice keeper Roberts and first-choice right-back Vassell. If George (who is definitely out due to his lengthy ban), Roberts (who is most probably out after picking up a knock a few weeks ago which apparently isn't as bad as it seemed) and Vassell (who's only missed three games so far this season, all of which Chester lost, conceding ten goals in the process) are all out, I'm in!

verdict: Chester first-choice right-back Vassell is indeed still out injured, along with first-choice keeper Roberts and suspended midfielder George, so I'm in!

current best odds:

1.70 with 12bet/Dafabet...

1.67 with SBO...

1.63 with Pinnacle, Bet365...

free unofficial last-minute pick coming between 2:40 and 2:50 PM UK time

As I have more than a couple of bets on my last-minute shortlist for today, it's fair to assume that I'm going to take and advise at least one unofficial bet based on late team news, in which case I'll share it here on the blog ten to twenty minutes before the 3 PM UK time kick-off, so between 2:40 and 2:50 PM UK time.

October 2016 review

There weren't that many bets in October - only three official picks and four unofficial last-minute picks - so there's really not much to write about, but at least we're off. Fun fact: it turns out I was one goal away from ten consecutive profitable months, which would've been a new record - this way I've only equalled the nine-month run that went on between December 2006 and November 2007.


OFFICIAL PICKS 2016/17:

22/10 NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
22/10 NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
29/10 NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)

3 picks
4.5 points staked
1-0-2
-0.74 point loss
-16.5% ROI
-1.2% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

Of the two asian handicap bets, one was half-lost while the other was half-won - both were half-void. The only outsider bet was close, but not close enough. Those clients who are taking the bets just before the kick-off are only -0.53 point down as the (-0.75) Aldershot odds drifted to 1.97 with Pinnacle by the 3 PM kick-off.

UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS 2016/17:

22/10 NL: (-0.75) DOVER - Braintree (2.04 @SBO) 0.5 point FT 6:1 (+0.52)
22/10 NL: Woking - (0) BARROW (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 1:1 (+/-0)
29/10 NL: Maidstone - (0) MACCLESFIELD (1.79 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
29/10 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.25) BROMLEY (1.85 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 1:2 (+0.42)

4 picks
2 points staked
2-1-1
+0.44 point profit
22.0% ROI

A good start (but very early days) with the unofficial last-minute picks, which I expect a lot from in the years to come. The last-minute market is even stronger as Pinnacle limits get a lot (more than twice) bigger closer to kick-off and I've noticed that there's practically no odds movement - at least not yet. You do have to be able to take the bets ten minutes before the 3 PM Saturday kick-off on a regular basis.


OFFICIAL + LAST-MINUTE COMBINED 2016/17:

7 picks
6.5 points staked
3-1-3
-0.30 point loss
-4.7% ROI
-0.5% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)


UNOFFICIAL LONG-TERM PICKS 2016/17 (PENDING):

NL: DAG & RED to be promoted to League Two (6.00 @Marathon) 1 point

The current best price is 4.33 with Bet365. Unfortunately, these unofficial long-term bets aren't available with the likes of Pinnacle and SBO.


Btw I'll most probably share an unofficial last-minute pick here on the blog next Saturday (there won't be much action this weekend due to the FA Cup), ten to twenty minutes before the 3 PM kick-off, but I'll also try and publish an unrelated article before that.