Tuesday 13 December 2016

Lincoln City 2016/17

Instead of redesigning the old website, joining twitter or at least getting drunk, I've decided to analyze twenty FA Trophy games for the Skeeve Picks service's 10th birthday yesterday, so I thought I'd take a break from that and share a sample of my work in the form of everything there is to know about the only National League team that wasn't in FA Trophy action this weekend (their match away at Shaw Lane was postponed after the Northern Premier League Division One South - which is three tiers down the pyramid - outfit allegedly fielded a suspended player in the last (qualifying) round of the competition, which was followed by an FA investigation), Lincoln City. Here's to the next ten! :)



Wood/Beevers – Raggett/McCombe/Fixter – Waterfall/Howe/Weatherell – Habergham
Hawkridge/Anderson – Power/Whitehouse/Everington Woodyard/Miles/Wright Arnold/Muldoon/Hodge
Robinson/McMenemy/Acar  Rhead/Marriott/Simmons

Latest managerial changes:
1/5/2016 Moyses out
14/5/2016 Cowley in

Currently injured:
Beevers (right-back, long-term)

Currently suspended: 

Raggett (centre-back, two more games)

Transfers in: 
11/6 Woodyard (mid, Braintree)
21/6 Miles (mid, Braintree)
23/6 Habergham (left-back, Braintree)
27/6 Marriott (striker, Stevenage)
20/7 Margetts (striker, Tranmere) 
27/7 Arnold (winger, Grimsby)
3/8 Raggett (centre back, Dover) 
15/8 Anderson (winger, Peterborough, loan until Jan 1) 
1/9 Bonne (striker, Colchester, loan until Oct 26, recalled early on Oct 13) 
13/9 Champion (mid, Barnet, loan until Dec 14, recalled early on Oct 19) 
8/10 Robinson (striker, Port Vale)
21/10 Whitehouse (mid, Nuneaton)

Transfers out: 
23/5 Brown (def, Boston)
23/5 Diagne (def, Hemel Hempstead) 
23/5 Grant (keeper, Corby)
23/5 Sparrow (mid, Sorrento) 
23/5 Hearn (striker, Alfreton) 
9/6 Tempest (mid, Nuneaton) 
15/6 C.Robinson (striker, North Ferriby) 
26/6 Bush (def, Chelmsford)
31/8 Margetts (striker, joint top scorer, 5 goals, Scunthorpe) 
26/9 Stanley (mid)

Currently out on loan:

Everington (mid, Buxton)
Wright (mid, Grantham)
Acar (striker, Spalding)
Simmons (striker, Halifax)
Miles (mid, Boston Utd)
Hodge (mid, Telford)

Recently returned from loan:

Howe (def, Southport, loan until Nov 25, returned, FA Cup-tied)


14.5. manager Cowley switches from Braintree along with his brother and assistant

23.5. Brown, Diagne, Grant, Sparrow and Hearn are all released / Farman, Beevers, Hawkridge, McCombe, Power, Rhead, Waterfall, Wood, Bush, Muldoon and Stanley are already under contract / Everington, Hodge, Howe, Simmons and Wright are offered new terms / youngsters Acar and Walton are offered their first professional terms / Robinson and Tempest are invited to pre-season training

30.5. top scorer Rhead's transfer request was accepted

11.6. Braintree's midfielder Woodyard signs a one-year deal

21.6. now attacking midfielder Miles also follows Cowley from Braintree and signs a one-year deal

23.6. and now left-back Habergham also follows Cowley and signs a two-year deal

26.6. versatile first-choice centre/right-back Bush leaves to sign for National League South outift Chelmsford

27.6. striker Marriott signs a one-year deal after a season dogged with injuries with Stevenage

20.7. striker Margetts signs a one-year deal after being at rivals Tranmere last season

27.7. winger Arnold signs a two-year deal after leaving League Two newcomers Grimsby

2.8. top scorer Rhead signs a new two-year deal, even though the club initially accepted his transfer request in late May

3.8. centre-back Raggett joins on a two-year deal from rivals Dover

15.8. winger Anderson joins from League One outfit Peterborough on loan until January

31.8. joint top scorer with five goals so far Margetts joins League One outfit Scunthorpe on transfer deadline day

1.9. striker Bonne joins on loan from League Two outfit Colchester until October 26

13.9. experienced midfielder Champion joins on a 93-day loan from League Two outfit Barnet

8.10. former Premier League striker Robinson joins after leaving League One outfit Port Vale in the summer

21.10. midfielder Whitehouse joins from National League North outfit Nuneaton on a deal until the end of next season

Thursday 1 December 2016

November 2016 review

There were six official picks in November, three of which landed for a modest +0.42 point profit (4.6% ROI). If nothing else, it was my 6th profitable month (of the seven active months so far) in 2016. As far as the 2016/17 season is concerned, it's still very early days - and I'm still waiting for the first outsider bet to land. As last season, we'll be switching back to full stakes (four points per asian handicap bet, one point per outsider bet) in January.


5/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM  (1.83 @SBO) 2 points  FT 0:0 (-2)
12/11 NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN  (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12/11 NL: Sutton - BARROW  (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19/11 NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT  (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 2:1 (+0.8)

6 picks
9 points staked
+0.42 point profit
4.6% ROI
0.7% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

Fun fact: even though the official picks are officially still -0.32 point down for the season so far, the results based on kick-off odds are already in green (+0.57). It seems like the results based on kick-off odds might outperform the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season, but as I record the odds sixty seconds after I send the pick (and with three bookmakers only, which is how I record the kick-off odds as well), that's not really breaking news anymore. Conclusion: you should definitely be able to beat the official results.


12/11 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester  (1.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 0.5 point  FT 2:2 (-0.5)
12/11 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Braintree  (1.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:1 (-0.5)

19/11 NL: (-0.75) BARROW - Solihull  (1.84 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (+0.21)
19/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) SUTTON  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Maidstone  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (+0.3)
26/11 NL: (0) SOUTHPORT - Braintree  (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:5 (-0.5)

6 picks
3 points staked
-1.49 point profit
-49.7% ROI

Not a good month with the unofficial last-minute picks, which are based on late team news and sent at least ten minutes before the kick-off, but as I said, it's very early days and I'm confident this set of picks will be profitable in the long run. These picks are currently -1.05 point down for the season so far - not exactly a disaster and, as with the official picks, we'll be switching to full stakes in January (one point per unofficial last-minute pick). Non-fun fact: it's not an error, Southport have indeed lost 4:5 to Braintree (who were without both first-choice centre-backs Elokobi (who was their key defensive player lately, but returned to parent club Colchester) and Goodman (out injured) and the first-choice replacement centre-back Ashton who was also out injured) after being 3:1 up.