November 2016 review

There were six official picks in November, three of which landed for a modest +0.42 point profit (4.6% ROI). If nothing else, it was my 6th profitable month (of the seven active months so far) in 2016. As far as the 2016/17 season is concerned, it's still very early days - and I'm still waiting for the first outsider bet to land. As last season, we'll be switching back to full stakes (four points per asian handicap bet, one point per outsider bet) in January.

OFFICIAL PICKS:

5/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM  (1.83 @SBO) 2 points  FT 0:0 (-2)
12/11 NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN  (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12/11 NL: Sutton - BARROW  (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19/11 NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT  (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 2:1 (+0.8)

6 picks
9 points staked
3-0-3
+0.42 point profit
4.6% ROI
0.7% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

Fun fact: even though the official picks are officially still -0.32 point down for the season so far, the results based on kick-off odds are already in green (+0.57). It seems like the results based on kick-off odds might outperform the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season, but as I record the odds sixty seconds after I send the pick (and with three bookmakers only, which is how I record the kick-off odds as well), that's not really breaking news anymore. Conclusion: you should definitely be able to beat the official results.

UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:

12/11 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester  (1.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 0.5 point  FT 2:2 (-0.5)
12/11 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Braintree  (1.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:1 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: (-0.75) BARROW - Solihull  (1.84 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (+0.21)
19/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) SUTTON  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Maidstone  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (+0.3)
26/11 NL: (0) SOUTHPORT - Braintree  (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:5 (-0.5)

6 picks
3 points staked
2-0-4
-1.49 point profit
-49.7% ROI

Not a good month with the unofficial last-minute picks, which are based on late team news and sent at least ten minutes before the kick-off, but as I said, it's very early days and I'm confident this set of picks will be profitable in the long run. These picks are currently -1.05 point down for the season so far - not exactly a disaster and, as with the official picks, we'll be switching to full stakes in January (one point per unofficial last-minute pick). Non-fun fact: it's not an error, Southport have indeed lost 4:5 to Braintree (who were without both first-choice centre-backs Elokobi (who was their key defensive player lately, but returned to parent club Colchester) and Goodman (out injured) and the first-choice replacement centre-back Ashton who was also out injured) after being 3:1 up.

unofficial last-minute pick for November 12

NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester  (min. odds: 1.55) 0.5 point

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/tranmere-chester-UBUq16WR/#ah;2;-0.75;0

Tranmere have been doing great since Mellon took over as manager earlier this month - they've won all four league games (2:0 vs Wrexham, 3:0 at Solihull, 1:0 vs North Ferriby and, finally, 4:1 at Dover a fortnight ago), scored ten and only conceded one goal in these four games, they're the third best home team in the league, they have the second best home defence (only five goals conceded in nine home games so far), a perfect home record against teams outside the top-ten (five games, all wins - 2:1 vs Maidstone, 1:0 vs Guiseley, 3:1 vs Woking, 2:0 vs Wrexham, 1:0 vs North Ferriby - nine goals scored and only two goals conceded) and they've just re-signed winger Dawson from rivals Eastleigh and striker Mangan who will once again be excellent at this level of football (he follows manager Mellon from League One outift Shrewsbury). However, they're also missing a few important players (striker Connor Jennings and midfielder Steve Jennings are both still out injured, striker/winger Norwood is suspended and key midfielder Maynard is away on international duty with St. Kitts & Nevis) and they've only scored a 93rd minute winner against poor North Ferriby in their last home game, which is why this is only a possible unofficial half-a-point bet rather than an official two-point bet - I want to see the Chester line-up before I pull the trigger here.

Chester were on an amazing clean-sheet run not so long ago (they'd kept as many as seven consecutive clean sheets - 0:0 at Aldershot, 2:0 vs Guiseley, 1:0 vs Braintree, 0:0 at Wrexham, 5:0 vs Dover, 1:0 at North Ferriby, 1:0 vs Torquay), but they're now without a win in the last four (0:1 at Southport in the FA Cup which was a deserved home win, 1:1 at York thanks to  92nd minute equaliser, 0:0 at Macclesfield which would've been a home win on most days as Macclesfield hit the woodwork thrice and, finally, 2:5 to Lincoln which was a proper kick in the teeth after that run of clean sheets), they've only managed to beat arguably the worst team in the league North Ferriby away from home so far (truth be told, most of their away games were draws and not defeats), they have the third worst away attack in the league with only six goals scored in nine away games so far and they have more than a couple of players unavailable or doubtful - midfielder George is definitely out suspended (and both centre-back Killock and left-back Horwood should still be out injured), but I hope they'll also still be withouth their first-choice keeper Roberts and first-choice right-back Vassell. If George (who is definitely out due to his lengthy ban), Roberts (who is most probably out after picking up a knock a few weeks ago which apparently isn't as bad as it seemed) and Vassell (who's only missed three games so far this season, all of which Chester lost, conceding ten goals in the process) are all out, I'm in!

verdict: Chester first-choice right-back Vassell is indeed still out injured, along with first-choice keeper Roberts and suspended midfielder George, so I'm in!

current best odds:

1.70 with 12bet/Dafabet...

1.67 with SBO...

1.63 with Pinnacle, Bet365...