November 2016 review

There were six official picks in November, three of which landed for a modest +0.42 point profit (4.6% ROI). If nothing else, it was my 6th profitable month (of the seven active months so far) in 2016. As far as the 2016/17 season is concerned, it's still very early days - and I'm still waiting for the first outsider bet to land. As last season, we'll be switching back to full stakes (four points per asian handicap bet, one point per outsider bet) in January.

OFFICIAL PICKS:

5/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM  (1.83 @SBO) 2 points  FT 0:0 (-2)
12/11 NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN  (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12/11 NL: Sutton - BARROW  (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19/11 NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT  (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 2:1 (+0.8)

6 picks
9 points staked
3-0-3
+0.42 point profit
4.6% ROI
0.7% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

Fun fact: even though the official picks are officially still -0.32 point down for the season so far, the results based on kick-off odds are already in green (+0.57). It seems like the results based on kick-off odds might outperform the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season, but as I record the odds sixty seconds after I send the pick (and with three bookmakers only, which is how I record the kick-off odds as well), that's not really breaking news anymore. Conclusion: you should definitely be able to beat the official results.

UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:

12/11 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester  (1.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 0.5 point  FT 2:2 (-0.5)
12/11 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Braintree  (1.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:1 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: (-0.75) BARROW - Solihull  (1.84 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (+0.21)
19/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) SUTTON  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:1 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Maidstone  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 2:0 (+0.3)
26/11 NL: (0) SOUTHPORT - Braintree  (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:5 (-0.5)

6 picks
3 points staked
2-0-4
-1.49 point profit
-49.7% ROI

Not a good month with the unofficial last-minute picks, which are based on late team news and sent at least ten minutes before the kick-off, but as I said, it's very early days and I'm confident this set of picks will be profitable in the long run. These picks are currently -1.05 point down for the season so far - not exactly a disaster and, as with the official picks, we'll be switching to full stakes in January (one point per unofficial last-minute pick). Non-fun fact: it's not an error, Southport have indeed lost 4:5 to Braintree (who were without both first-choice centre-backs Elokobi (who was their key defensive player lately, but returned to parent club Colchester) and Goodman (out injured) and the first-choice replacement centre-back Ashton who was also out injured) after being 3:1 up.