April 2017 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

1/4 NL: Wrexham - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+2.2)
1/4 NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Bromley  (1.39 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points  FT 1:0 (+1.56)
1/4 NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT  (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+1.96)
1/4 NL: Southport - GUISELEY  (2.76 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 0:1 (+1.76)
8/4 NL: Chester - (0) YORK  (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.24)
8/4 NL: (-0.75) SUTTON - Southport  (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 2:2 (-4)
8/4 NL: Macclesfield - DAG & RED  (3.55 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point  FT 1:4 (+2.55)
14/4 NL: (-0.5) DOVER - Southport  (1.36 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:0 (+1.44)
22/4 NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Macclesfield  (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points  FT 2:1 (+1.6)
22/4 NL: Wrexham - (0) DAG & RED  (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+2.04)

10 picks
34 points staked
9-0-1
+13.35 points profit
39.2% ROI
22.2% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

April was a near-perfect month with as many as nine of the ten official bets landing - can't get much better than that. April was also my 6th consecutive profitable month and my 15th profitable month out of the last 16 active months. Seven of the eight (four-point) asian handicap bets landed for a +9.04 point profit at a 28.3% ROI, while both (one-point) bets on outsiders landed as well for an additional +4.31 point profit at a 215.5% ROI.


UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:

1/4 NL: (-2) FOREST GREEN - North Ferriby  (1.85 @SBO) 1 point  FT 0:1 (-1)
29/4 NL: Dag & Red - (+0.5) WOKING  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:1 (+0.6)

2 picks
2 points staked
1-0-1
-0.40 point loss
-20.0% ROI

There was a couple of unofficial bets based on late team news in April, one of which failed miserably on the first day of the month, while the other landed on the closing day of the regular season - to be honest, I didn't think I'd advise another unofficial last-minute pick this season after the April 1 fiasco (it's the biggest shock result of the season by far), but then Dag & Red who had confirmed their play-off spot in a previous game decided to go with the reserve team, while full-strength, in-form strugglers Woking needed a point to be safe.

unofficial last-minute pick for November 12

NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester  (min. odds: 1.55) 0.5 point

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/tranmere-chester-UBUq16WR/#ah;2;-0.75;0

Tranmere have been doing great since Mellon took over as manager earlier this month - they've won all four league games (2:0 vs Wrexham, 3:0 at Solihull, 1:0 vs North Ferriby and, finally, 4:1 at Dover a fortnight ago), scored ten and only conceded one goal in these four games, they're the third best home team in the league, they have the second best home defence (only five goals conceded in nine home games so far), a perfect home record against teams outside the top-ten (five games, all wins - 2:1 vs Maidstone, 1:0 vs Guiseley, 3:1 vs Woking, 2:0 vs Wrexham, 1:0 vs North Ferriby - nine goals scored and only two goals conceded) and they've just re-signed winger Dawson from rivals Eastleigh and striker Mangan who will once again be excellent at this level of football (he follows manager Mellon from League One outift Shrewsbury). However, they're also missing a few important players (striker Connor Jennings and midfielder Steve Jennings are both still out injured, striker/winger Norwood is suspended and key midfielder Maynard is away on international duty with St. Kitts & Nevis) and they've only scored a 93rd minute winner against poor North Ferriby in their last home game, which is why this is only a possible unofficial half-a-point bet rather than an official two-point bet - I want to see the Chester line-up before I pull the trigger here.

Chester were on an amazing clean-sheet run not so long ago (they'd kept as many as seven consecutive clean sheets - 0:0 at Aldershot, 2:0 vs Guiseley, 1:0 vs Braintree, 0:0 at Wrexham, 5:0 vs Dover, 1:0 at North Ferriby, 1:0 vs Torquay), but they're now without a win in the last four (0:1 at Southport in the FA Cup which was a deserved home win, 1:1 at York thanks to  92nd minute equaliser, 0:0 at Macclesfield which would've been a home win on most days as Macclesfield hit the woodwork thrice and, finally, 2:5 to Lincoln which was a proper kick in the teeth after that run of clean sheets), they've only managed to beat arguably the worst team in the league North Ferriby away from home so far (truth be told, most of their away games were draws and not defeats), they have the third worst away attack in the league with only six goals scored in nine away games so far and they have more than a couple of players unavailable or doubtful - midfielder George is definitely out suspended (and both centre-back Killock and left-back Horwood should still be out injured), but I hope they'll also still be withouth their first-choice keeper Roberts and first-choice right-back Vassell. If George (who is definitely out due to his lengthy ban), Roberts (who is most probably out after picking up a knock a few weeks ago which apparently isn't as bad as it seemed) and Vassell (who's only missed three games so far this season, all of which Chester lost, conceding ten goals in the process) are all out, I'm in!

verdict: Chester first-choice right-back Vassell is indeed still out injured, along with first-choice keeper Roberts and suspended midfielder George, so I'm in!

current best odds:

1.70 with 12bet/Dafabet...

1.67 with SBO...

1.63 with Pinnacle, Bet365...