time

As you might have noticed, the new National League season starts in a few days. As you also might have noticed, there have been no new posts on this blog since March. As much as I don't like it, I guess it's become obvious that I can't find enough time for the blog and - as far as motivation is concerned - it's not like I can remember when was the last time that I had someone's comment here on the blog, which doesn't make the whole experience as interactive as I would like it to be, but I can always join twitter, can't I?

Circumstances change though and it's quite possible that I'll return to regular blogging in a few days, months or years, which is why I won't delete the blog, but I don't see much sense in posting monthly reviews when my clients are already getting updates on a weekly basis (I update the website on the weekly basis as well) during the season and I obviously can't find the time for other articles on betting at this point. Things are obviously different if you're a client - I've recently sent all clients a ten-page report based on the survey I conducted this summer and I've also just finished writing a rather detailed intro e-mail to the 2018/19 season, which I'll be sending to all clients on August 1.

Instead of writing a new post about ten years of proofing my selections to Secret Betting Club, I've prepared some very nice one-off discounts for SBC members (maybe I'll write another post on the topic in March 2019, when it will be eleven years of proofing my bets to SBC). If you want to take a look at the 2017/18 season review, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks at gmail dot com) and I'll send you the review - that much I'm willing to share with non-clients.

In other news, I'll be introducing an additional "VIP" service this season (for instance, I'll be sharing my in-play selections for the first time) - if you want to know more, you can always join my waiting list (by sending me an e-mail). If enough people who are already on the waiting list decide not to join the service after all, you might even get an invitation to join before the first 2018/19 selections.

I really don't think of this as my final goodbye to blogging - I think of it as another break. In the meantime, there are still some excellent bloggers out there such as Cassini - for example, take a look at this recent hillarious post.

I'll be back.

nine and a half years

It will be ten years of proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club in March next year, which is another nice milestone (so feel free to expect a follow-up post in half a year). The SBC have just published their latest Tipster Profit Report - here's how my service is currently rated:

SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (September 2017)

Here's how my service was rated in SBC's very first Tipster Profit Report, back in May 2011:

      SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (May 2011)

I've stumbled upon an excellent interview with Cassini over at @statsbet. There's been a lot of talk about tipsters' affiliate deals with bookmakers lately and I can only quote Cassini on the topic: "not interested in affiliate links". As simple as that.

Btw the Skeeve Picks membership is now closed for the remainder of the year, but if you want to be on the 2018 waiting list, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks@gmail.com).

Vorp and the primitive source of an edge

I've been meaning to comment on a couple of Cassini's blog posts since I've read them four weeks ago, but August is unfortunately quite a lot to handle as National League teams will have played as many as seven games in 24 days and I obviously need to spend a bit more time analyzing a 1st round game than, for example, a 28th round game. I've also traditionally implemented a few new elements into my match analysis and, as always, I'm wondering how on earth have I managed to stay ahead of the industry for so many years without those elements. I may have just been lucky for the past eleven years.

Anyway, in the first of the two posts over at Green All Over, Cassini wrote:

Miguel referenced an old post of mine from almost 18 months ago, which highlighted the challenges of finding an edge in the top leagues where you are competing with the likes of Starlizard... As it's the eve of a new season, and most readers will forget this as soon as they've read it, I thought I might share a thought I had regarding the lower leagues. Back in May I mentioned that: "If you go too far down the football pyramid, you run into problems not only of liquidity, but also the problem where the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of certain key players becomes critical". Many of you will be familiar with Skeeve, who has been profitable in the National League since forever. How does he do it? By studying the teams in great detail. See this post for an example. Since there are so few people studying this league to the extent that Skeeve does, he gets himself an edge. Most of us don't have the time for this level of research and analysis however. 

I wouldn't say that VORP (it kind of sounds like a name for a baby dragon - look at little Vorp burning those daisies; I may have analyzed a few games too many today) is the only thing that gives me an edge, but it's surely an important element. As far as the time for this level of research and analysis is concerned, well it's what I do for a living.

Miguel Rodrigues commented:

Skeeve example is the perfect example for the ones with a exclusively mathematical based approach who look at subjective analysis as a primitive source of an edge. I agree that the likelihood (and I experienced this myself in the early phase of my betting journey in La Liga) for that type of approach (subjective) working in the main European Leagues in the long haul is slim to none (insane market competition and know-how, better resources employed by the bookies in the opening lines, less average deviation between openers and closers, etc.) However, if you understand the sport, the league and teams, particular characteristics and most importantly are willing to work harder researching for more information than anyone or the majority, you can be one of the market leaders and earners in a medium / lower level league. You just have to ensure that: a) you have information that is not included in the line and / or b) you process the current information available and recognise market over /under reactions better than anyone else. Football teams are "stock prices" and although the odds efficiency in the main leagues is so strong that is difficult for the experienced bettor to see if the price is currently 5% off with subjective analysis, that is very doable in lower level leagues and I can not emphasise the example of Skeeve too much. In betting there will always exist spots for the guy who is willing to outwork and out-learn the competition, at least in the next 5 years. The problem with subjective analysis is it's usually a low volume approach and difficult to use great staking methods like Kelly, but should not be viewed as a primitive source of an edge. I will end this long comment with a quote from Joseph Buchdal: "There is no right or wrong approach to seeking a betting edge. Ultimately, the best one is the one that works for you, one that returns a profit. However, what each approach has in common is a shared aim of finding "value" in the odds, where the true chance of a win is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker".

I can only agree with Miguel - very well put, sir. Personally, I need to see a price that's at least 10% off to get involved nowadays and I obviously think it's possible to stay ahead for a bit longer than five years (have I ever mentioned my eleven consecutive... I have?), but still - an excellent comment.

In the second of the two blog posts, Cassini added:

Unfortunately I have little to disagree with Miguel about regarding his thoughts. One thing I would say is that regarding the line "football teams are 'stock prices'", I think Miguel means that publicly traded companies are like football clubs (some clubs are indeed publicly traded companies) while stock prices are like betting prices in that they are the opinion of the market based on all "relevant" information. Relevant here is a combination of past public information, breaking new public information, and private (insider) information. Knowing along with everyone else that City beat United 2:0 three years ago isn't a lot of use to you. Knowing that a star player for Barrow (assuming they have one) slipped in the shower this morning, suffered a concussion and will miss tomorrow's game is useful. Installing hidden cameras in the bathrooms of non-league stars is not practical, or legal, but plenty of people have contacts who can provide information before it becomes public.

"Assuming they have one"?! After all that Byron Harrison's been through with his ankle in the last seven months, jokes about him slipping in the shower and suffering concussion in addition to a recent surgery seem particularly cruel. Sorry Byron. As for Cassini, shame on you, mate. Shame on you.

the "outstanding contribution to tipping" award + Pinnacle on their way back to the UK market

I'm proud to announce that I've just won the SBC "outstanding contribution to tipping" award, which is a "lifetime achievement honour chosen by the SBC team" (along with being voted the third best sports tipster in 2016 by the SBC members, but now I'm just bragging). To quote the SBC team,

"the SBC ‘Lifetime Achievement’ honour is designed to recognize those who have provided outstanding services to punters through tipping and is chosen by the Secret Betting Club team. This year’s very worthy award recipient is the football tipster, Skeeve, who since 2006 has been posting his lower-league football tips to great acclaim. Making a profit over the course of 1 football season is difficult enough but to do it over 10 consecutive seasons as Skeeve has done is a phenomenal achievement. Over the lifetime of his service, Skeeve has posted just under 1500 tips and made 674 points profit at 12.2% Return on Investment. It is not just his profit but the quality of customer service and his odds-settlement policy that also deserves merit as Skeeve has always played extremely fair by his members. Ensuring that you can often match, if not beat the advised profits he records on his website – a huge deal when you consider today’s betting markets and how they react to sharp money. Skeeve is well on course to enjoy his 11th consecutive profitable season and we can’t think of a worthier recipient for this honour. Here is to another decade of profit!"

2017 RESULTS SO FAR:

17 picks

44 points staked

+5.11 points profit

11.6% ROI

8.5% ROC

2016 RESULTS:

49 picks

121 points staked

+19.49 points profit

16.1% ROI

32.4% ROC

LAST THREE YEARS (MARCH 2014 - FEBRUARY 2017):

172 picks

511 points staked

+66.37 points profit

12.9% ROI

97.7% ROC

Anonymous posted a comment about Pinnacle and their continued absence from the UK market. I hope he's satisfied with my answer and I also hope Joseph Buchdahl isn't wrong about Pinnacle returning to the UK market as soon as next month!

Last but not least, congrats to Cassini - one of, if not THE, best bloggers around - on his 2259th blog post. It's not a typo - that's 2259 (update: 2261) blog posts.

the good guys

One of my all-time favorite bloggers Cassini is back after a short break.

I hope there were many of us who took the bet on Dag & Red to be promoted when they were @6.00 with Marathon and @5.50 with Bet365. To quote Cassini, "the best available now is 4.0 with Betway or BetVictor who may let you have 50p on if you're lucky".

Although according to some sources, well maybe one source, I run a global betting empire and am behind multiple web sites, I actually have no business relationship with Skeeve so when I say that he has a stellar record over ten years, and that I have no concerns about his integrity, that is my unbiased and honest assessment. 

If you're somehow not familiar with Cassini, you're probably not interested in betting or trading, but you should know that he's one of the good guys in this chaotic betting world, along with the likes of Joseph Buchdahl, Peter Ling, Rowan Day, Greg Gordon and Stewboss, to mention some of the very few. As you can see, he also has a fine sense of humor, which is probably much more important to yours truly than to your average gambler, but I'm not your average gambler - and neither is Cassini if I may try and observe. Anyway, thanks for the mention, Cassini, and welcome back from the Granddad duty!

Speaking of Joseph Buchdahl, I've recently stumbled upon a horrifying Betting Advice forum thread dedicated to a certain (so-called) verification service which was exposed thanks to Joseph and a few other guys. If you ask me, there's definitely a need for a trusted, publicly available verification service (you have to be subscribed to the SBC to receive their profit reports and other publications) since Joseph decided to hang up his boots, but those who I trust the most are already busy with other projects, so I guess we'll have to do with the good old SBC for now and possibly the likes of BetRush who I plan to take a closer look at in the next few days.

Btw I've noticed significantly less mistakes in the PA data reports lately (even though I'm yet to analyze most of this weekend's games). Long may it continue.

Last but not least, there were no unofficial picks last week, but we'll most probably have one (or more) later this week, so stay tuned.