time

As you might have noticed, the new National League season starts in a few days. As you also might have noticed, there have been no new posts on this blog since March. As much as I don't like it, I guess it's become obvious that I can't find enough time for the blog and - as far as motivation is concerned - it's not like I can remember when was the last time that I had someone's comment here on the blog, which doesn't make the whole experience as interactive as I would like it to be, but I can always join twitter, can't I?

Circumstances change though and it's quite possible that I'll return to regular blogging in a few days, months or years, which is why I won't delete the blog, but I don't see much sense in posting monthly reviews when my clients are already getting updates on a weekly basis (I update the website on the weekly basis as well) during the season and I obviously can't find the time for other articles on betting at this point. Things are obviously different if you're a client - I've recently sent all clients a ten-page report based on the survey I conducted this summer and I've also just finished writing a rather detailed intro e-mail to the 2018/19 season, which I'll be sending to all clients on August 1.

Instead of writing a new post about ten years of proofing my selections to Secret Betting Club, I've prepared some very nice one-off discounts for SBC members (maybe I'll write another post on the topic in March 2019, when it will be eleven years of proofing my bets to SBC). If you want to take a look at the 2017/18 season review, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks at gmail dot com) and I'll send you the review - that much I'm willing to share with non-clients.

In other news, I'll be introducing an additional "VIP" service this season (for instance, I'll be sharing my in-play selections for the first time) - if you want to know more, you can always join my waiting list (by sending me an e-mail). If enough people who are already on the waiting list decide not to join the service after all, you might even get an invitation to join before the first 2018/19 selections.

I really don't think of this as my final goodbye to blogging - I think of it as another break. In the meantime, there are still some excellent bloggers out there such as Cassini - for example, take a look at this recent hillarious post.

I'll be back.

February 2018 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

3/2 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Ebbsfleet  (1.44 @SBO) 4 points  FT 3:0 (+1.76)
3/2 NL: Torquay - BARROW  (2.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 3:1 (-1)
10/2 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Halifax  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:1 (-2)
10/2 NL: Ebbsfleet - SOLIHULL  (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:0 (-1)
17/2 NL: (0) ALDERSHOT - Macclesfield  (1.48 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:2 (-4)
17/2 NL: Chester - (0) EASTLEIGH  (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:1 (-4)
17/2 NL: Boreham Wood - GATESHEAD  (4.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:1 (-1)
24/2 NL: Maidstone - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 2:3 (+2.6)

8 picks
23 points staked
2-0-6
-8.64 points loss
-37.6% ROI
-17.3% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A rare horror month with as many as six of the eight bets failing miserably for a -8.64 point loss and featuring the worst losing run (twelve points lost in only eight days) since early 2015, but to be honest, a poor month (or, if you want, a "correction") was probably long overdue (it was only the third losing month since March 2015) - the ROI for the season was absolutely ridiculous (and unattainable in the long run) in early February.

On a brighter note, I've recently won another couple of Secret Betting Club awards as I've been voted both the second best tipster and the second best sports tipster in 2017 by SBC members. Thanks to everyone who voted!

It's now exactly ten years since I've started proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club, but more on that in my next blog post.

2017 so far + pre-mail/recorded/closing odds

2017 has definitely been an excellent year so far - the best since at least 2013.

2017 SO FAR (recorded odds):

41 picks

108.5 points staked

25-2-14

+24.755 points profit

22.8% ROI

42.4% ROC

Here are the 2017 results based on pre-mail (those available just before I send the pick, so at 10:29 AM UK time on Saturday), recorded (those recorded with a sixty-second delay) and closing (those available just before the kick-off) odds, either with Pinnacle, SBO or Dafabet:

2017 SO FAR:

41 picks

108.5 points staked

2017 SO FAR (pre-mail odds):

+30.745 points profit

28.3% ROI

2017 SO FAR (recorded odds):

+24.755 points profit

22.8% ROI

2017 SO FAR (closing odds):

+25.76 points profit

23.7% ROI

There's a couple of blog posts on the topic of my pre-mail/recorded/closing odds here and here.

I've also updated the results based on pre-mail/recorded/closing odds since the beginning of the 2010/11 season (which is when I started archiving all of the pre-mail/recorded/closing odds):

SINCE 2010/11:

650 picks

2016.5 points staked

SINCE 2010/11 (pre-mail odds):

+237.34 points profit

11.8% ROI

SINCE 2010/11 (recorded odds):

+182.6 points profit

9.1% ROI

SINCE 2010/11 (closing odds):

+165.23 points profit

8.2% ROI

All of these picks have obviously been proofed to third parties - to Secret Betting Club (since March 2008, so all of them), to Joseph Buchdahl's SportsTipsters (from August 2012 until it's closure in June 2015) and to BetRush (since October 2016).

nine and a half years

It will be ten years of proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club in March next year, which is another nice milestone (so feel free to expect a follow-up post in half a year). The SBC have just published their latest Tipster Profit Report - here's how my service is currently rated:

SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (September 2017)

Here's how my service was rated in SBC's very first Tipster Profit Report, back in May 2011:

      SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (May 2011)

I've stumbled upon an excellent interview with Cassini over at @statsbet. There's been a lot of talk about tipsters' affiliate deals with bookmakers lately and I can only quote Cassini on the topic: "not interested in affiliate links". As simple as that.

Btw the Skeeve Picks membership is now closed for the remainder of the year, but if you want to be on the 2018 waiting list, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks@gmail.com).

unofficial long-term pick update + SBC 100

As Dagenham & Redbridge have now mathematically confirmed their play-off spot, I thought I'd share a few updated thoughts about my unofficial (as the bet isn't available with Pinnacle) long-term bet on Dag & Red to be promoted, advised way back in mid-September. Even though the odds did shorten to 4.00 (or even less) at one point of the season, 6.00 is now once again available with Marathon (5.50 with the likes of Bet365 and 188bet), so if you've failed to take the bet then, here's your chance. Do I still think it's a good bet? Absolutely. Dag & Red have the best record against the top-five out of all four play-off teams (it's hard to see Dover sneaking into the top-five after losing at home to struggling Torquay on Saturday - and Dag & Red have already beaten them twice this season anyway) - they did lose away at Aldershot (and champions Lincoln) who they can only face in the play-off final at Wembley (if Aldershot beat well fancied Tranmere over two semi-final legs), but they've beaten them (and Lincoln as well) at home and they're unbeaten against the other two, Tranmere (0:0 at home, 2:0 away) and the team they're facing in the play-off semi-finals, Forest Green (2:1 at home, 1:1 away), who are both bookies' promotion favorites (while Dag & Red and Aldershot are both outsiders). Forest Green have recently lost at home to already relegated North Ferriby (which was the biggest shock result of the season by far), away at already relegated Southport eight days ago and have only shared points with mid-table Maidstone after being 2:0 up on Saturday, so it's fair to say they aren't exactly at the top of their game at the moment. If Dag & Red do beat Forest Green in the semi-finals and if Tranmere beat Aldershot, they'll only be one Wembley game (against a team they haven't conceded a single goal to in two games) away from bouncing straight back to League Two. All things considered, anything better than 4.00 for Dag & Red to be promoted still looks great to me.

Congrats to the superb Secret Betting Club on their 100th magazine! I've been proofing my bets to the SBC since March 2008 and I can only thank them once again for providing a neutral perspective on this often chaotic world of tipsters and so-called tipsters. Here's to another 100!

the "outstanding contribution to tipping" award + Pinnacle on their way back to the UK market

I'm proud to announce that I've just won the SBC "outstanding contribution to tipping" award, which is a "lifetime achievement honour chosen by the SBC team" (along with being voted the third best sports tipster in 2016 by the SBC members, but now I'm just bragging). To quote the SBC team,

"the SBC ‘Lifetime Achievement’ honour is designed to recognize those who have provided outstanding services to punters through tipping and is chosen by the Secret Betting Club team. This year’s very worthy award recipient is the football tipster, Skeeve, who since 2006 has been posting his lower-league football tips to great acclaim. Making a profit over the course of 1 football season is difficult enough but to do it over 10 consecutive seasons as Skeeve has done is a phenomenal achievement. Over the lifetime of his service, Skeeve has posted just under 1500 tips and made 674 points profit at 12.2% Return on Investment. It is not just his profit but the quality of customer service and his odds-settlement policy that also deserves merit as Skeeve has always played extremely fair by his members. Ensuring that you can often match, if not beat the advised profits he records on his website – a huge deal when you consider today’s betting markets and how they react to sharp money. Skeeve is well on course to enjoy his 11th consecutive profitable season and we can’t think of a worthier recipient for this honour. Here is to another decade of profit!"

2017 RESULTS SO FAR:

17 picks

44 points staked

+5.11 points profit

11.6% ROI

8.5% ROC

2016 RESULTS:

49 picks

121 points staked

+19.49 points profit

16.1% ROI

32.4% ROC

LAST THREE YEARS (MARCH 2014 - FEBRUARY 2017):

172 picks

511 points staked

+66.37 points profit

12.9% ROI

97.7% ROC

Anonymous posted a comment about Pinnacle and their continued absence from the UK market. I hope he's satisfied with my answer and I also hope Joseph Buchdahl isn't wrong about Pinnacle returning to the UK market as soon as next month!

Last but not least, congrats to Cassini - one of, if not THE, best bloggers around - on his 2259th blog post. It's not a typo - that's 2259 (update: 2261) blog posts.