time

As you might have noticed, the new National League season starts in a few days. As you also might have noticed, there have been no new posts on this blog since March. As much as I don't like it, I guess it's become obvious that I can't find enough time for the blog and - as far as motivation is concerned - it's not like I can remember when was the last time that I had someone's comment here on the blog, which doesn't make the whole experience as interactive as I would like it to be, but I can always join twitter, can't I?

Circumstances change though and it's quite possible that I'll return to regular blogging in a few days, months or years, which is why I won't delete the blog, but I don't see much sense in posting monthly reviews when my clients are already getting updates on a weekly basis (I update the website on the weekly basis as well) during the season and I obviously can't find the time for other articles on betting at this point. Things are obviously different if you're a client - I've recently sent all clients a ten-page report based on the survey I conducted this summer and I've also just finished writing a rather detailed intro e-mail to the 2018/19 season, which I'll be sending to all clients on August 1.

Instead of writing a new post about ten years of proofing my selections to Secret Betting Club, I've prepared some very nice one-off discounts for SBC members (maybe I'll write another post on the topic in March 2019, when it will be eleven years of proofing my bets to SBC). If you want to take a look at the 2017/18 season review, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks at gmail dot com) and I'll send you the review - that much I'm willing to share with non-clients.

In other news, I'll be introducing an additional "VIP" service this season (for instance, I'll be sharing my in-play selections for the first time) - if you want to know more, you can always join my waiting list (by sending me an e-mail). If enough people who are already on the waiting list decide not to join the service after all, you might even get an invitation to join before the first 2018/19 selections.

I really don't think of this as my final goodbye to blogging - I think of it as another break. In the meantime, there are still some excellent bloggers out there such as Cassini - for example, take a look at this recent hillarious post.

I'll be back.

February 2018 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

3/2 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Ebbsfleet  (1.44 @SBO) 4 points  FT 3:0 (+1.76)
3/2 NL: Torquay - BARROW  (2.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 3:1 (-1)
10/2 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Halifax  (1.40 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:1 (-2)
10/2 NL: Ebbsfleet - SOLIHULL  (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:0 (-1)
17/2 NL: (0) ALDERSHOT - Macclesfield  (1.48 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:2 (-4)
17/2 NL: Chester - (0) EASTLEIGH  (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:1 (-4)
17/2 NL: Boreham Wood - GATESHEAD  (4.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:1 (-1)
24/2 NL: Maidstone - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 2:3 (+2.6)

8 picks
23 points staked
2-0-6
-8.64 points loss
-37.6% ROI
-17.3% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A rare horror month with as many as six of the eight bets failing miserably for a -8.64 point loss and featuring the worst losing run (twelve points lost in only eight days) since early 2015, but to be honest, a poor month (or, if you want, a "correction") was probably long overdue (it was only the third losing month since March 2015) - the ROI for the season was absolutely ridiculous (and unattainable in the long run) in early February.

On a brighter note, I've recently won another couple of Secret Betting Club awards as I've been voted both the second best tipster and the second best sports tipster in 2017 by SBC members. Thanks to everyone who voted!

It's now exactly ten years since I've started proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club, but more on that in my next blog post.

January 2018 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

6/1 NL: (0) WREXHAM - Torquay  (1.33 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 4:0 (+1.32)
13/1 NL: Woking - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.42 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+1.68)
20/1 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Maidenhead  (1.58 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:2 (+1.16)
20/1 NL: Maidstone - EASTLEIGH  (3.03 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:3 (+2.03)
20/1 NL: Torquay - BROMLEY  (2.71 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 0:4 (+1.71)
27/1 NL: Ebbsfleet - BOREHAM WOOD  (2.61 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 0:3 (+1.61)
27/1 NL: Leyton Orient - ALDERSHOT  (2.57 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 2:3 (+1.57)

7 picks
16 points staked
7-0-0
+11.08 points profit
69.3% ROI
22.2% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A perfect month with seven out of seven, including as many as four outsider bets. I can only hope for another perfect month some time in 2019, because I doubt it could happen twice in a year.

Btw I've also advised a couple of unofficial long-term bets before I returned to the official picks in mid-October, but I wasn't able to take the bets myself (and neither were most of my clients, unfortunately) as they were (and still are) only available with BetVictor, Skybet and Betway, so not exactly the most winners-friendly bookmakers out there. I know that some of my clients managed to take the bets though (not for as much as they wanted, but still) and I'm glad they did. Anyway, both long-term bets were in the "top seven finish" market - starting with this season, there's a new six-team play-off system in the National League. The first bet was Aldershot (to finish in the top seven), advised on September 23. The best odds were 1.73 with Skybet (1.67 with Betway, 1.57 with BetVictor) and anything better than 1.40 looked great to me back then - they're only 1.13 now with both Skybet and Betway (1.10 with BetVictor). The second bet was Wrexham (to finish in the top seven), advised on October 7. The best odds were 2.75 with BetVictor (2.50 with Betway, 2.38 with Skybet) and anything better than 2.20 looked great to me back then - they're only 1.22 now with Betway (1.20 with Skybet, 1.17 with BetVictor).

2017 review

2017 was another excellent year here at Skeeve Picks. The official profit of +25.09 points at a 20.7% ROI and a 43.1% ROC means it was the best year in terms of ROC since 2011 and the best year in terms of ROI since 2009 (!), but as always, there were ways of achieving even better results. For instance, the results based on closing odds (+26.17 points profit at a 21.6% ROI and a 45.2% ROC) have once again outperformed the official results and most of us (myself included, of course) are now using a forty-point bank instead of the officially recommended fifty-point bank.

Only one of the eight "active" months in 2017 failed to produce some profit - that was May with it's one play-off bet that failed miserably. The other seven months were all profitable, the best of which by far was April with nine of the ten bets landing (+13.35 points profit at a 39.3% ROI). There were 25 "active" weekends in 2017, 18 of which were profitable, and the worst losing run was only -4.8 points (February 18 - February 25).

The asian handicap bets produced +18.02 points profit at a 17.7% ROI (at recorded odds) in 2017 and it's great to see all seven types of asian handicap bets I'm currently advising in profit since the summer of 2013. I'll write a lot more about the asian handicap bets, both over the course of the current season and in the last five years, in the 2017/18 season review.

The bets on outsiders had another excellent year as well - that's +7.07 points profit at a 37.2% ROI, but as you can see, the bets on away outsiders are doing much, much better than the bets on home outsiders, which is why there were no bets on home outsiders so far this season (since May) and I'd need to see plenty of value indeed to advise an official outsider bet on a home team in the 2nd half of the current (2017/18) season. Since I've first started advising the bets on outsiders in 2015 (at one-point flat stakes during the 2nd half of the season and at half-a-point flat stakes during the 1st half of the season, so in October, November and December), 70 picks produced +25.67 points profit at a 41.4% ROI (the outsider bets were only advised as unofficial picks in early 2015, before the start of the 2015/16 season, and as official picks ever since). I'll write a lot more about the bets on outsiders in the 2017/18 season review as well.

As I have some clients who can only take the main asian handicap bets and also some clients who can only take the straight home/away win bets, I've decided to check out the results I would've achieved if I'd been taking all bets as one-point flat-stake main asian handicap bets (half-a-point flat-stake in October, November and December) and also as one-point flat-stake straight home/away win bets (half-a-point flat-stake in October, November and December) since I've made the latest set of key adjustments to the service in the summer of 2015. The results are very interesting indeed - as far as 2017 is concerned, the main asian handicap bets (recorded at closing odds) would've produced +9.32 points profit at a 20.9% ROI, which is quite similar to the official ROI (20.7% at recorded odds, 21.6% at closing odds), but the straight home/away win bets (also recorded at closing odds) would've done significantly better with +16.22 points profit at a 36.4% ROI, mostly due to some successful big-priced outsiders. However, 2017 isn't exactly a one-off as the straight home/away win bets would've made +34.7 points profit in the last two and a half years, at a 37.3% ROI and with the worst losing run of only -4.89 points (February 18 - March 11, 2017), which is why, in theory, a twenty-point bank should be more than enough. The main asian handicaps would've made +20.33 points profit in the last two and a half years, at a 21.9% ROI and with the worst losing run of only -3.63 points (February 25 - March 11, 2017), which is why, in theory, a fifteen-point bank should be more than enough. 

As I've only mentioned these alternative ways of taking the bets shortly before the start of the current (2017/18) season for the first time (and only because I found out about clients who are taking these kinds of bets instead of the official bets), I can't officially recommend taking these bets instead of (unless you have to) or in addition to the official picks, but I'll take a closer look at both main asian handicaps and straight home/away win bets in the summer.

Anyway, there's plenty to look forward to, both in 2018 and in the years to come, and it's good to know that there's many alternative ways of following these picks if you can't take (some of) the official bets or are more comfortable with some other method. As far as I'm concerned, I'll continue to both take these bets exactly as I advise them and use a forty-point bank.

Btw if you're wondering how on earth did the results based on closing odds outperform the results based on recorded odds (not only in 2017, but for quite a few consecutive years), let me point you to a couple of blog (http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/02/closingkick-off-odds-part-one.html) posts (http://bettingwithskeeve.blogspot.com/2017/04/april-fools-day-odds.html).

December 2017 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

2/12 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Maidenhead  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 2:0 (+1.2)
2/12 NL: Halifax - BARROW  (2.57 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (+0.785)
9/12 NL: (-0.5) ALDERSHOT - Halifax  (1.50 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (-2)
9/12 NL: Eastleigh - BROMLEY  (3.28 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:4 (-0.5)
23/12 NL: Bromley - (0) MACCLESFIELD  (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 1:1 (+/-0)
23/12 NL: Woking - BARROW  (2.50 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 1:2 (+0.75)

6 picks
7.5 points staked
3-1-2
+0.235 point profit
3.1% ROI
0.5% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

I'm not sure why I'm keeping the advised bank at fifty points when I'm both using a forty-point bank myself and "unofficially recommending" it to everyone who asks, but I'm not going to change it in the middle of the campaign - I've only changed the official recommendation from sixty to fifty points in the summer, but I'd have to go on a horrible losing run not to change it to forty points (officially, unofficially, superficially and extraficially) after the current season ends and I take a closer look at the results in the last three seasons or, if you want, since I've made the latest key adjustments to the service in the summer of 2015.

Anyway, December 2017 was another profitable month - barely, but still. The outsider bets were one goal short of a perfect 3/3 record in December and produced a +1.035 point profit, but the asian handicap bets on favorites had a mixed month with one win, one loss and one void and produced a -0.8 point loss. As I was in red going into the last active weekend in December, there will once again be no complaints from yours truly.

2017 turned out to be an amazing year (the best ROC since 2011 and the best ROI since 2009!), but more on that in my next post. I was far from being the busiest blogger in 2017 and I'll be far from being the busiest blogger in 2018, but I should probably try and write a couple of posts per month that aren't monthly reviews. The actual work obviously comes first, but I'll do my best to find a bit more time for the old blog in 2018.

I'm very late, but Happy New Year, everybody! :)

November 2017 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

11/11 NL: Torquay - (0) MAIDSTONE  (1.68 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (+1.36)
18/11 NL: (-0.5) SUTTON - Halifax  (1.55 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 3:2 (+1.1)
18/11 NL: Leyton Orient - DOVER  (2.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 points  FT 1:1 (-0.5)
25/11 NL: Solihull - (0) GATESHEAD  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 1:1 (+/-0)
25/11 NL: Tranmere - MAIDSTONE  (5.07 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 4:0 (-0.5)

5 picks
7 points staked
2-1-2
+1.46 points profit
20.8% ROI
2.9% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

Another profitable month with two of the three two-point asian handicap bets landing (the remaining one was void) - unfortunately, both half-a-point bets on outsiders failed miserably, but as you probably know by now, you won't hear me complain after a 20% ROI month.

I can't help but notice the amazing performance of the away draw-no-bets since I've made the latest adjustments to the service back in the summer of 2015. Here's how the away draw-no-bets or, if you want, the (0) asian handicap bets on away teams performed in the last couple of years, since the start of the 2015/16 season:

9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT  (1.90 @SBO) 4 points  FT 0:0 (+/-0)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH  (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM  (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:2 (+2.88)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH  (1.74 @SBO) 4 points  FT 3:0 (-4)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE  (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN  (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.12)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM  (1.95 @Dafabet) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+3.8)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD  (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+2.24)
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN  (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (+1.4)
4.2.2017. NL: Maidstone - (0) ALDERSHOT  (1.67 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.68) 
11.2.2017. NL: Southport - (0) DAG & RED  (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 1:4 (+2.04)
18.2.2017. NL: Eastleigh - (0) TRANMERE  (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.2)
4.3.2017. NL: Aldershot - (0) LINCOLN  (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:0 (+/-0)
1.4.2017. NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT  (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+1.96)
8.4.2017. NL: Chester - (0) YORK  (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.24)
22.4.2017. NL: Wrexham - (0) DAG & RED  (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+2.04)
11.11.2017. NL: Torquay - (0) MAIDSTONE  (1.68 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 0:1 (+1.36)
25.11.2017. NL: Solihull - (0) GATESHEAD  (1.65 @Pinnacle) 2 points  FT 1:1 (+/-0)

18 picks
66 points staked
12-5-1
+22.96 points profit
34.8% ROI
(average odds: 1.65)

2017 so far + pre-mail/recorded/closing odds

2017 has definitely been an excellent year so far - the best since at least 2013.

2017 SO FAR (recorded odds):

41 picks

108.5 points staked

25-2-14

+24.755 points profit

22.8% ROI

42.4% ROC

Here are the 2017 results based on pre-mail (those available just before I send the pick, so at 10:29 AM UK time on Saturday), recorded (those recorded with a sixty-second delay) and closing (those available just before the kick-off) odds, either with Pinnacle, SBO or Dafabet:

2017 SO FAR:

41 picks

108.5 points staked

2017 SO FAR (pre-mail odds):

+30.745 points profit

28.3% ROI

2017 SO FAR (recorded odds):

+24.755 points profit

22.8% ROI

2017 SO FAR (closing odds):

+25.76 points profit

23.7% ROI

There's a couple of blog posts on the topic of my pre-mail/recorded/closing odds here and here.

I've also updated the results based on pre-mail/recorded/closing odds since the beginning of the 2010/11 season (which is when I started archiving all of the pre-mail/recorded/closing odds):

SINCE 2010/11:

650 picks

2016.5 points staked

SINCE 2010/11 (pre-mail odds):

+237.34 points profit

11.8% ROI

SINCE 2010/11 (recorded odds):

+182.6 points profit

9.1% ROI

SINCE 2010/11 (closing odds):

+165.23 points profit

8.2% ROI

All of these picks have obviously been proofed to third parties - to Secret Betting Club (since March 2008, so all of them), to Joseph Buchdahl's SportsTipsters (from August 2012 until it's closure in June 2015) and to BetRush (since October 2016).

October 2017 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

21/10 NL: Leyton Orient - MACCLESFIELD  (2.99 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point  FT 0:1 (+0.995)
28/10 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Halifax  (1.53 @Pinnacle, SBO, Dafabet) 2 points  FT 4:2 (+1.06)

2 picks
2.5 points staked
2-0-0
+2.055 points profit
82.2% ROI
4.1% ROC
(advised bank: 50 points)

A perfect start to the 2017/18 season as both the half-a-point outsider bet on Macclesfield last weekend and the two-point odds-on bet on Tranmere this weekend landed for +2.055 points profit in October. As you might know, I won't be returning to the usual stakes (four points per asian handicap odds-on bet, one point per outsider bet) before January, so it's another couple of months of 50% smaller stakes before the traditionally super-profitable 2nd half of the season (January-May).

I've recently found out that some of my clients can only take the main asian handicap bets, while others can only take the straight home/away win bets, so I've started recording these odds and results as well and I've done a test to see what would've happened if I'd been taking all of my bets as one-point flat-stake main asian handicap bets (half-a-point flat stakes in October, November and December) and as one-point flat-stake home/away win bets (half-a-point flat stakes in October, November and December) in the past two years (based on closing odds), including two picks from this month (based on recorded odds, those available sixty seconds after I send the pick).

2015/16 + 2016/17 + 2017/18 SO FAR

OFFICIAL RESULTS:
100 picks
240.5 points staked
+52.39 points profit
21.8% ROI
(worst losing run: -8.4)
(advised bank: 50 points)

MAIN ASIAN HANDICAPS:
100 picks
87.5 points staked
+19.06 points profit
21.8% ROI
(worst losing run: -3.33)
(advised bank: 15 points)

STRAIGHT HOME/AWAY WINS:
100 picks
87.5 points staked
+34.41 points profit
39.3% ROI
(worst losing run: -4.89)
(advised bank: 20 points)

It's a small sample of only 100 picks and it's been a couple of excellent campaigns (I've discussed these results in more detail with my clients), but it will be interesting to see how these bets do over the next couple of years.

nine and a half years

It will be ten years of proofing my bets to Secret Betting Club in March next year, which is another nice milestone (so feel free to expect a follow-up post in half a year). The SBC have just published their latest Tipster Profit Report - here's how my service is currently rated:

SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (September 2017)

Here's how my service was rated in SBC's very first Tipster Profit Report, back in May 2011:

      SBC TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT (May 2011)

I've stumbled upon an excellent interview with Cassini over at @statsbet. There's been a lot of talk about tipsters' affiliate deals with bookmakers lately and I can only quote Cassini on the topic: "not interested in affiliate links". As simple as that.

Btw the Skeeve Picks membership is now closed for the remainder of the year, but if you want to be on the 2018 waiting list, feel free to drop me an e-mail (skeevepicks@gmail.com).

Vorp and the primitive source of an edge

I've been meaning to comment on a couple of Cassini's blog posts since I've read them four weeks ago, but August is unfortunately quite a lot to handle as National League teams will have played as many as seven games in 24 days and I obviously need to spend a bit more time analyzing a 1st round game than, for example, a 28th round game. I've also traditionally implemented a few new elements into my match analysis and, as always, I'm wondering how on earth have I managed to stay ahead of the industry for so many years without those elements. I may have just been lucky for the past eleven years.

Anyway, in the first of the two posts over at Green All Over, Cassini wrote:

Miguel referenced an old post of mine from almost 18 months ago, which highlighted the challenges of finding an edge in the top leagues where you are competing with the likes of Starlizard... As it's the eve of a new season, and most readers will forget this as soon as they've read it, I thought I might share a thought I had regarding the lower leagues. Back in May I mentioned that: "If you go too far down the football pyramid, you run into problems not only of liquidity, but also the problem where the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of certain key players becomes critical". Many of you will be familiar with Skeeve, who has been profitable in the National League since forever. How does he do it? By studying the teams in great detail. See this post for an example. Since there are so few people studying this league to the extent that Skeeve does, he gets himself an edge. Most of us don't have the time for this level of research and analysis however. 

I wouldn't say that VORP (it kind of sounds like a name for a baby dragon - look at little Vorp burning those daisies; I may have analyzed a few games too many today) is the only thing that gives me an edge, but it's surely an important element. As far as the time for this level of research and analysis is concerned, well it's what I do for a living.

Miguel Rodrigues commented:

Skeeve example is the perfect example for the ones with a exclusively mathematical based approach who look at subjective analysis as a primitive source of an edge. I agree that the likelihood (and I experienced this myself in the early phase of my betting journey in La Liga) for that type of approach (subjective) working in the main European Leagues in the long haul is slim to none (insane market competition and know-how, better resources employed by the bookies in the opening lines, less average deviation between openers and closers, etc.) However, if you understand the sport, the league and teams, particular characteristics and most importantly are willing to work harder researching for more information than anyone or the majority, you can be one of the market leaders and earners in a medium / lower level league. You just have to ensure that: a) you have information that is not included in the line and / or b) you process the current information available and recognise market over /under reactions better than anyone else. Football teams are "stock prices" and although the odds efficiency in the main leagues is so strong that is difficult for the experienced bettor to see if the price is currently 5% off with subjective analysis, that is very doable in lower level leagues and I can not emphasise the example of Skeeve too much. In betting there will always exist spots for the guy who is willing to outwork and out-learn the competition, at least in the next 5 years. The problem with subjective analysis is it's usually a low volume approach and difficult to use great staking methods like Kelly, but should not be viewed as a primitive source of an edge. I will end this long comment with a quote from Joseph Buchdal: "There is no right or wrong approach to seeking a betting edge. Ultimately, the best one is the one that works for you, one that returns a profit. However, what each approach has in common is a shared aim of finding "value" in the odds, where the true chance of a win is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker".

I can only agree with Miguel - very well put, sir. Personally, I need to see a price that's at least 10% off to get involved nowadays and I obviously think it's possible to stay ahead for a bit longer than five years (have I ever mentioned my eleven consecutive... I have?), but still - an excellent comment.

In the second of the two blog posts, Cassini added:

Unfortunately I have little to disagree with Miguel about regarding his thoughts. One thing I would say is that regarding the line "football teams are 'stock prices'", I think Miguel means that publicly traded companies are like football clubs (some clubs are indeed publicly traded companies) while stock prices are like betting prices in that they are the opinion of the market based on all "relevant" information. Relevant here is a combination of past public information, breaking new public information, and private (insider) information. Knowing along with everyone else that City beat United 2:0 three years ago isn't a lot of use to you. Knowing that a star player for Barrow (assuming they have one) slipped in the shower this morning, suffered a concussion and will miss tomorrow's game is useful. Installing hidden cameras in the bathrooms of non-league stars is not practical, or legal, but plenty of people have contacts who can provide information before it becomes public.

"Assuming they have one"?! After all that Byron Harrison's been through with his ankle in the last seven months, jokes about him slipping in the shower and suffering concussion in addition to a recent surgery seem particularly cruel. Sorry Byron. As for Cassini, shame on you, mate. Shame on you.

2017/18 pre-season research preview: Barrow AFC

BARROW AFC

official website: http://barrowafc.com/
local newspaper: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/Sport/Barrow-AFC
fans' forum: http://www.barrowafc.net/
wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrow_A.F.C.
twitter: https://twitter.com/barrowafc
youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/BarrowOfficial/

manager: Paul Cox (since November 23, 2015)

current team (as of July 25, 2017):

Moore/Dixon
Audel/Parry - Diarra - Dunne - Jones
Fitzpatrick/Hughes - Harvey - Hall/Gomis - Bauress
Bennett/Panayiotou - White/Harrison

currently out injured: Parry (mid/def, October), Dixon (keeper, October), Harrison (striker, top scorer, 22 goals last season, September)

transfers in: White (striker, Wrexham), Bauress (left winger/back, Witton), Jones (left/centre-back, Grimsby), Hall (mid, Cheltenham), Gomis (mid, Sutton), Fitzpatrick (winger, Wimbledon), Moore (keeper, Reading), Dunne (centre-back, Burnley, half-season loan), Audel (right/centre-back, Notts County)

transfers out: Coughlin (keeper, Airbus), Beeley (right-back, Warrington), Meikle (winger, Kettering), Effiong (striker, Woking), Livesey (centre-back, skipper, Salford), Hannah (striker, Chester), Turnbull (mid, Chester), Williams (winger, Rochdale), Newby (winger, Telford), Anderton (left-back, Blackpool)

returned to parent clubs at the end of last season: Flatt (keeper, Wolves), Platt (def, Blackburn), Wright (mid, Fleetwood)


news:

10/5 keeper Coughlin, first-choice right-back Beeley, winger Meikle and striker Effiong have all been released; young winger Newby has been offered a new deal (which he refused and subsequently signed for Telford in late June); key centre-back Diarra stays for another season, while midfielders Harvey and Turnbull have had their contracts automatically extended after they both reached 25 appearances last season

19/5 skipper and first-choice centre-back Livesey wasn't offered a new deal, so he subsequently signs for Salford

24/5 striker White joins from rivals Wrexham on a one-year deal with an appearance-based second-year option

3/6 left-sided midfielder Bauress who can play both in attack and in defence joins on a one-year deal from Evo-Stik Premier outfit Witton

7/6 first-choice midfielder Turnbull joins rivals Chester after all

8/6 star winger Williams (ten goals last season) joins League One outfit Rochdale

21/6 versatile left/centre-back Jones signs following his release from League Two outfit Grimsby

22/6 experienced midfielder Hall signs from League Two outfit Cheltenham

23/6 versatile midfielder Gomis joins from rivals Sutton

26/6 first-choice left-back Anderton joins League One newcomers Blackpool

28/6 winger Fitzpatrick joins from League One outfit Wimbledon

1/7 keeper Moore joins on a one-year deal from Championship outfit Reading

5/7 centre-back Dunne joins on a half-season loan deal from Premier League outfit Burnley

6/7 first-choice right-back Beeley signs for Warrington following his release in mid-May

14/7 versatile right/centre-back Audel joins from League Two outfit Notts County on a one-year deal with a performance-based second-year option


pre-season friendlies:

8/7 Barrow - Blackburn 1:2
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/match-reports/article/Barrow-AFC-put-in-gritty-display-against-League-One-Blackburn-Rovers-5ea1f81a-b922-44c8-aec6-babba07e701f-ds
highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W65PXlymr0c

11/7 Barrow - Motherwell 1:0
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/article/All-White-on-the-night-as-Barrow-AFC-beat-Motherwell-11d1cc53-123b-479d-91d0-6b15f40b8bca-ds
highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltC_kyJFfms

15/7 Boston - Barrow 1:1
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/match-reports/article/Boston-friendly-no-tea-party-for-Barrow-AFC-dcfb205a-8013-4a20-a271-2b2406a719be-ds

18/7 Barrow - Crewe Alexandra 0:0
report: https://www.crewealex.net/news/2017/july/barrow---crewe/

22/7 Barrow - Nottingham Forest 1:1
report: http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/barrow-afc/match-reports/article/Gomis-nets-first-Barrow-AFC-goal-in-Nottingham-Forest-draw-4d30c2c6-65ee-46d5-89cd-d5bfe9789dc3-ds
highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTl34yQbfPM

Skeeve Picks 2016/17 season review + stats update

The 2016/17 season here at Skeeve Picks is now officially over and it's been an excellent one - if you'd like to read the 2016/17 season review, feel free to send me an e-mail (skeevepicks@gmail.com) and I'll be glad to send you the five-page pdf file. Let me know if you want to be on the waiting list for the 2017/18 season as well.

Also, when I was double-checking all of the numbers during the work on the season review, I've noticed a couple of mistakes (nothing recent, but from a few years ago), so mea culpa for that. I've now updated all of the numbers both on the official website and here on the blog (for instance, I've advised 1517 official picks so far instead of 1510 after all and my all-time ROC is a bit better than I though it was - it's actually 753.4%).

And now - a vacation. :)

April 2017 review

OFFICIAL PICKS:

1/4 NL: Wrexham - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+2.2)
1/4 NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Bromley  (1.39 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points  FT 1:0 (+1.56)
1/4 NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT  (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+1.96)
1/4 NL: Southport - GUISELEY  (2.76 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 0:1 (+1.76)
8/4 NL: Chester - (0) YORK  (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.24)
8/4 NL: (-0.75) SUTTON - Southport  (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 2:2 (-4)
8/4 NL: Macclesfield - DAG & RED  (3.55 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point  FT 1:4 (+2.55)
14/4 NL: (-0.5) DOVER - Southport  (1.36 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 3:0 (+1.44)
22/4 NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Macclesfield  (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points  FT 2:1 (+1.6)
22/4 NL: Wrexham - (0) DAG & RED  (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:1 (+2.04)

10 picks
34 points staked
9-0-1
+13.35 points profit
39.2% ROI
22.2% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)

April was a near-perfect month with as many as nine of the ten official bets landing - can't get much better than that. April was also my 6th consecutive profitable month and my 15th profitable month out of the last 16 active months. Seven of the eight (four-point) asian handicap bets landed for a +9.04 point profit at a 28.3% ROI, while both (one-point) bets on outsiders landed as well for an additional +4.31 point profit at a 215.5% ROI.


UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:

1/4 NL: (-2) FOREST GREEN - North Ferriby  (1.85 @SBO) 1 point  FT 0:1 (-1)
29/4 NL: Dag & Red - (+0.5) WOKING  (1.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:1 (+0.6)

2 picks
2 points staked
1-0-1
-0.40 point loss
-20.0% ROI

There was a couple of unofficial bets based on late team news in April, one of which failed miserably on the first day of the month, while the other landed on the closing day of the regular season - to be honest, I didn't think I'd advise another unofficial last-minute pick this season after the April 1 fiasco (it's the biggest shock result of the season by far), but then Dag & Red who had confirmed their play-off spot in a previous game decided to go with the reserve team, while full-strength, in-form strugglers Woking needed a point to be safe.

unofficial long-term pick update + SBC 100

As Dagenham & Redbridge have now mathematically confirmed their play-off spot, I thought I'd share a few updated thoughts about my unofficial (as the bet isn't available with Pinnacle) long-term bet on Dag & Red to be promoted, advised way back in mid-September. Even though the odds did shorten to 4.00 (or even less) at one point of the season, 6.00 is now once again available with Marathon (5.50 with the likes of Bet365 and 188bet), so if you've failed to take the bet then, here's your chance. Do I still think it's a good bet? Absolutely. Dag & Red have the best record against the top-five out of all four play-off teams (it's hard to see Dover sneaking into the top-five after losing at home to struggling Torquay on Saturday - and Dag & Red have already beaten them twice this season anyway) - they did lose away at Aldershot (and champions Lincoln) who they can only face in the play-off final at Wembley (if Aldershot beat well fancied Tranmere over two semi-final legs), but they've beaten them (and Lincoln as well) at home and they're unbeaten against the other two, Tranmere (0:0 at home, 2:0 away) and the team they're facing in the play-off semi-finals, Forest Green (2:1 at home, 1:1 away), who are both bookies' promotion favorites (while Dag & Red and Aldershot are both outsiders). Forest Green have recently lost at home to already relegated North Ferriby (which was the biggest shock result of the season by far), away at already relegated Southport eight days ago and have only shared points with mid-table Maidstone after being 2:0 up on Saturday, so it's fair to say they aren't exactly at the top of their game at the moment. If Dag & Red do beat Forest Green in the semi-finals and if Tranmere beat Aldershot, they'll only be one Wembley game (against a team they haven't conceded a single goal to in two games) away from bouncing straight back to League Two. All things considered, anything better than 4.00 for Dag & Red to be promoted still looks great to me.

Congrats to the superb Secret Betting Club on their 100th magazine! I've been proofing my bets to the SBC since March 2008 and I can only thank them once again for providing a neutral perspective on this often chaotic world of tipsters and so-called tipsters. Here's to another 100!

April Fools' Day odds

I haven't had such a perfect April Fools' Day in a long time - I've advised four official bets to Skeeve Picks clients and all four teams won their respective games without conceding a single goal. Officially, my clients made +7.48 points profit at a 57.5% ROI, which obviously means it was a great day at the office, but let me explain why I tend to describe my recorded odds as those "recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst" and why I think you can easily beat the official results - and show you how most other services would record these bets/odds.


NL: Wrexham - (-0.25) TRANMERE  (min. odds: 1.45) 4 points
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/wrexham-tranmere-Q5AwW6tO/#ah;2;0.25;0

Wrexham haven't really been doing that great since they've hit the fifty-point mark (which means they'll be playing their football in the National League next season - they can't get relegated nor promoted to League Two) - they're now without a win in the last four, two of which were defeats (0:2 to Gateshead, 0:3 at Forest Green, 1:1 at Barrow, 1:1 vs Torquay), the only two goals they've managed to score in the last 400 minutes of football were a 94th minute goal at Barrow after the home team's keeper completely missed the ball and then a goal from a controversial penalty that shouldn't have been a penalty against struggling Torquay who had later equalised from a penalty of their own last weekend, they have the fourth worst home attack in the league (only 22 goals scored in their twenty home games so far - only North Ferriby, Braintree and Boreham Wood have scored less at home), they have a terrible record against top-ten teams, both home (a win against Forest Green back in November, draws with Dover and Barrow in August and October respectively and defeats to Lincoln in October, Macclesfield in December, Aldershot in February and Gateshead in March; six goals scored, twelve goals conceded) and away (draws at Gateshead, Dover and Barrow and defeats at Aldershot, Dag & Red, Macclesfield, Tranmere, Lincoln and Forest Green; four goals scored, eighteen goals conceded), they're once again without their key centre-back Tilt (switched to Forest Green for the remainder of the season), key attacking midfielder and set-piece specialist Rooney (loaned to Guiseley for the remainder of the season) and first-choice left-back Jennings (suspended), which means they're once again going to have to field some youngsters and, even though there are far worse teams in the National League than their expected line-up (Dunn between the sticks; Carrington, Riley, youngster Marx and out-of-position midfielder Shenton at the back; Rutherford, Barry, Penn and Smith/Evans in their midfield diamond; McLeod/White and Harry/Massanka up front), they're a bit overrated here if you ask me.

Tranmere are the second best away team in the league with as many as ten wins and only five defeats in their twenty away games so far, they have the best defence (only 32 goals conceded in their 38 National League games so far) and the best away defence in the league (only nineteen goals conceded in their twenty away games so far), they also have the third best away attack in the National League (as many as 32 goals scored in twenty away games - only Forest Green and Dag & Red have scored more on the road so far), they've now won three consecutive games (4:1 at North Ferriby, 1:0 vs Braintree, 1:0 vs Dover) and only lost one of their last six away games, four of which were wins (3:0 at Woking, 2:0 at Eastleigh, 3:2 at Chester, 1:2 at play-off chasing Barrow, an unlucky 0:0 draw at Torquay and, finally, 4:1 at doomed North Ferriby ten days ago), they've already managed to beat Wrexham twice this season without conceding a single goal (2:0 at home back in October, 1:0 away at Wrexham in the FA Trophy in December), they have an excellent away record at teams outside the top-nine or, if you want, at teams who can't reach the play-offs (a narrow 0:1 defeat at one of the best home teams in the league Sutton on their 3G pitch back in mid-September, draws at Southport, York and Torquay in August, September and March respectively and wins at Bromley, Boreham Wood, Solihull, Braintree, Woking, Eastleigh, Chester and North Ferriby, so eight wins, three draws and one defeat; twenty goals scored, only five goals conceded) and, even though they're still missing a few injured players, their expected line-up (Davies between the sticks; McNulty, Ihiekwe and Buxton/Sutton in their three-man defence; Vaughan and Ridehalgh as wing-backs; Harris, Hughes and Jennings/Wallace in the middle of the park; Cook and Norwood/Stockton up front) should be bigger favorites away at mid-table Wrexham (who are missing two of their standard back four) at this moment in time if you ask me. All things considered, anything better than 1.45 for the (-0.25) asian handicap (we only lose two points in case of a draw) looks great to me.

pre-mail odds: 

1.62 with StanJames...
1.61 with Pinnacle, Unibet...
1.60 with Bet365...

(my odds: 1.45)
(best opening odds: 1.73 @Bet365)
(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 1.71 @Pinnacle)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 1.62 @StanJames)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 1.61 @Pinnacle)
(recorded odds: 1.55 @Pinnacle)
(best closing odds: 1.52 @Unibet)
(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 1.50 @Pinnacle)

First of all, we have the so-called "min. odds" or, if you want, my own odds - if I were an odds compiler, I would've had the (-0.25) asian handicap odds on Tranmere at 1.45. The best opening odds were 1.71 with Pinnacle (and 1.73 with Bet365), after which the odds even drifted out to 1.72 with Pinnacle at one point, but I'm sending all official picks, one pick at a time, on Saturdays, at 10:30 AM UK time, so I have to wait until then to see if there's at least 10% difference between the available odds and my own odds. As the best odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 1.61 with Pinnacle (and 1.62 with StanJames), the bet qualified for the official bet, so I've sent the pick & preview to my clients. I'm only recording odds with three bookmakers - Pinnacle, SBO and 12bet/Dafabet - and the best odds with those three sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 1.55 with Pinnacle, so that's how I officially recorded the bet/odds. After that, the odds shortened a bit more, then bounced back to 1.55 half an hour before the kick-off, then shortened again and were 1.50 with Pinnacle (and 1.52 with Unibet) just before the kick-off. As I've recorded the odds at 1.55 with Pinnacle, the official profit was +2.2 points. From my experience, most or all other services would've officially made more profit with this bet - either by sharing it with their clients at some random point, maybe days before the game, when the market is much weaker (up to +2.92 points profit instead of the +2.2) or recording the best odds without the delay (up to +2.48 points profit instead of the +2.2). The difference in profit may not seem huge, but this is just one bet - and I'll advise more than fifty over the course of the season, most of which will land.


NL: (-0.5) LINCOLN - Bromley  (min. odds: 1.30) 4 points
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/lincoln-city-bromley-UF6xpHro/

League leaders and FA Cup heroes Lincoln are now unbeaten at home since mid-September of, if you want, in as many as eighteen (!) games in all three (National League, FA Cup, FA Trophy) competitions, fourteen of which were wins (3:0 vs Braintree, 0:0 vs Guiseley in the FA Cup, 0:0 vs Eastleigh, 2:0 vs Boreham Wood, 2:1 vs Altrincham in the FA Cup, 3:3 vs Aldershot, 2:0 vs Maidstone, 1:0 vs Wrexham, 3:2 vs Oldham in the FA Cup, 2:1 vs Tranmere, 3:1 vs Guiseley, 1:0 vs Ipswich in the FA Cup, 2:0 vs Dover, 3:1 vs Brighton in the FA Cup, 3:2 vs Woking, 1:1 vs very much improved York, 1:0 vs the very same York in the FA Trophy and, finally, 3:1 vs title rivals Forest Green last weekend), they've scored as many as 35 and only conceded thirteen in these eighteen home games, they've won eleven of their last twelve (!) home games and shared point with very much improved York in the remaining one, they've scored as many as 40 and only conceded fifteen in their eighteen home games in the National League so far, they've been brilliant in their key home games (and I guess every home game will be a key game for them in April) and, if you ask me, their well settled (I guess we could see Wood instead of Long at right-back, Whitehouse instead of Power in the middle of the park and Anderson instead of Hawkridge on the right flank compared to the midweek 1:1 draw away at one of the best home teams in the league Sutton who are excellent on their 3G pitch, which is an even better starting line-up if you ask me) team (Farman between the sticks; Wood/Long, Raggett, Waterfall and Habergham at the back; Whitehouse/Power and Woodyard in the middle of the park; Anderson/Hawkridge and Arnold on the flanks; Rhead and Angol up front) should be even bigger favorites at home against mediocre Bromley.

Bromley have only won one of their last nine games, they've lost six of their last eight (0:1 to Solihull, 1:2 at Dag & Red, 0:4 at Aldershot, 0:5 to Braintree, 0:0 at Boreham Wood, 3:0 vs North Ferriby, 0:1 at Dover, 0:1 to Chester), only one of which was a win (at home against doomed North Ferriby who had their left-back Hare sent off in the 18th minute), they're without a single away win in 2017 (0:2 at Sutton, 2:2 at Tranmere which was really lucky as Tranmere had a 2:0 lead in the 15th minute, but first lost key centre-back McNulty to an injury on the half-mark and then another defender Buxton to a red card before the hour mark, after which Bromley scored twice to grab an unlikely point, 1:2 at Dag & Red, 0:4 at Aldershot, 0:0 at mediocre Boreham Wood who would've won that game on most days and finally, 0:1 at Dover who were without the league's top scorer Miller due to his suspension a fortnight ago, so four defeats and two lucky draws on the road so far in 2017), they've recently lost more than a couple of key players in centre-back Swaine, keeper Julian and striker Hanlan, can't get relegated nor promoted to League Two and I really can't see their expected team (Flitney between the sticks; Dunne, Holland, Chorley and Anderson at the back; Higgs/Dymond and Minshull in the middle of the park; Turgott and Dennis/Hall on the flanks; Goldberg/Porter and Sho-Silva up front) doing much away at a team as good, fit and full of confidence as Lincoln. Anything better than 1.30 for the home win looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

1.48 with Marathon...
1.47 with 5Dimes...
1.45 with Pinnacle...
1.44 with Coral, Will Hill...
1.42 with 188bet...
1.40 with 12bet/Dafabet, Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Unibet...
1.38 with SBO...

(my odds: 1.30)
(best opening odds: 1.43 @Marathon)
(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 1.40 @Pinnacle)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 1.48 @Marathon)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 1.45 @Pinnacle)
(recorded odds: 1.39 @12bet/Dafabet)
(best closing odds: 1.40 @Coral)
(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 1.37 @Pinnacle)

I would've had the odds on Lincoln at 1.30. The best opening odds were 1.40 with Pinnacle (and 1.43 with Marathon), after which the odds drifted out to 1.48 with Pinnacle at one point, and the odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 1.45 with Pinnacle (and 1.48 with Marathon), so the bet qualified for the official bet. The best odds with official bookmakers sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 1.39 with 12bet/Dafabet, then they've shortened a bit more, then bounced back a bit and were 1.37 with Pinnacle (and 1.40 with Coral) just before the kick-off. As I've recorded the odds at 1.39 with 12bet/Dafabet, the official profit was +1.56 point. Most other services would've officially made more profit with this bet (up to +1.92 point profit instead of +1.56).


NL: Solihull - (0) ALDERSHOT  (min. odds: 1.40) 4 points
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/solihull-aldershot-M9gO7Kzh/#ah;2;0.00;0

Solihull have a horrifying home record against top-ten teams (nine games - which means this is their only remaining home game against a top-ten team - all defeats, eight goals scored, as many as 23 goals conceded - 2:3 to Macclesfield, 2:5 to Dagenham, 0:3 to Tranmere, 0:1 to Forest Green, 2:3 to Dover, 0:2 to Gateshead, 0:1 to Lincoln, 0:1 to Wrexham and, finally, 2:4 to Barrow last weekend), they're without a single win in their seventeen (!) games against top-ten teams so far, both home and away, they've now lost three consecutive games (1:2 at Forest Green, 2:4 to Barrow, 0:1 to Torquay) and are without a win in their last four home games, three of which were defeats (0:1 to Wrexham, 3:3 vs Braintree, 2:4 to Barrow, 0:1 to Torquay), they've only won one of their last seven games, four of which were defeats (0:1 to Wrexham, 0:0 at Dover, 3:3 vs Braintree, 4:1 at poor North Ferriby, 1:2 at Forest Green, 2:4 to Barrow, 0:1 to Torquay), they're the fifth worst home team in the league with seven wins and as many as ten defeats in their twenty home game so far (only North Ferriby and Braintree have lost more home games so far), they have the third worst home defence in the National League (as many as 34 goals conceded in twenty home games - only Southport and Maidstone have conceded more at home so far), they've already lost 0:2 away at the very same Aldershot back in October (they've only had one shot on target in the whole game), they'll be missing their key winger Charles-Cook (on loan from Charlton) due to suspension (he was sent off late in the 0:1 defeat to struggling Torquay on Tuesday), while the likes of left-back Flanagan, midfielders Nortey and Beswick, key winger/right-back Murombedzi and top scorer White are all still out injured and, if you ask me, they're significantly overrated here. There's nothing wrong with their expected line-up (Baxter between the sticks; Green, Daly, Kettle/Sanusi and Franklin at the back; Byrne, Sammons and Maye in the middle of the park; Carline and Sterling-James on the flanks; Brown/Afolayan up front), but Aldershot should be bigger favorites away at Solihull at this moment in time if you ask me.

Aldershot have now only lost one of their last fifteen (!) games (4:0 vs Woking, 2:1 at Woking, 2:1 vs Southport, 1:1 at play-off chasing Gateshead, 0:0 vs very much improved York, 2:0 at Maidstone, 2:2 vs play-off chasing Barrow, 2:0 at Wrexham, 4:0 vs Bromley, 1:1 at improved Eastleigh, 0:0 vs league leaders and FA Cup heroes Lincoln, 0:1 at very much improved Guiseley which was rather unlucky as Aldershot hit the woodwork twice, 2:0 vs Sutton, 3:1 vs promotion hopefuls Dag & Red and, finally, 2:0 at play-off chasing Macclesfield last weekend) and only one of their last seven away games, four of which were wins (2:1 at Woking, 1:1 at Gateshead, 2:0 at Maidstone, 2:0 at Wrexham, 1:1 at Eastleigh, 0:1 at Guiseley, 2:0 at Macclesfield), they've bounced back in style after their first defeat in twelve games by winning three in a row (2:0 vs Sutton, 3:1 vs Dag & Red, 2:0 at Macclesfield), they tend to win games even when they aren't at their best, which could be crucial in their play-off hunt, they have the fifth best away defence in the league (they've only conceded 22 goals in their twenty away games so far - Tranmere have conceded nineteen, Macclesfield have conceded twenty, both Lincoln and Dag & Red have conceded 21, but all other teams have conceded more or much more than Aldershot's 22 on the road so far), they're at full-strength (they've now extended their key midfielder Benyu's loan from Ipswich until the end of the season) and, if you ask me, their expected line-up (Cole between the sticks; Alexander/Arnold, Reynolds, Evans and Arnold/Straker at the back; Gallagher and Benyu in the middle of the park; Kanu and Kellerman/Mensah on the flanks; Rendell and Fenelon/McClure up front) should be bigger favorites away at Solihull. Anything better than 1.40 for this draw-no-bet (we get our money back in case of a draw) looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

1.57 with Marathon...
1.56 with Pinnacle...
1.55 with Bet365, Sportingbet (dnb)...
1.53 with BetVictor (dnb), Coral (dnb), Ladbrokes (dnb)...
1.52 with Unibet...
1.50 with Will Hill (dnb)...

(my odds: 1.40)
(best opening odds: 1.65 @Marathon)
(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 1.55 @Pinnacle)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 1.57 @Marathon)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 1.56 @Pinnacle)
(recorded odds: 1.49 @Pinnacle)
(best closing odds: 1.55 @Sportingbet)
(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 1.48 @Pinnacle)

I would've had the draw-no-bet odds on Aldershot at 1.40. The best opening odds were 1.55 with Pinnacle (and 1.65 with Marathon) and the best odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 1.56 with Pinnacle (and 1.57 with Marathon), so the bet qualified for the official bet. The best odds sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 1.49 with Pinnacle, then they've shortened a bit more, then bounced back to 1.50 with Pinnacle twenty minutes before the kick-off and were 1.48 with Pinnacle (and 1.55 with Sportingbet) just before the kick-off. As I've recorded the odds at 1.49 with Pinnacle, the official profit was +1.96 point. Most other services would've officially made more profit with this bet (up to +2.6 points profit instead of +1.96).


NL: Southport - GUISELEY  (min. odds: 2.50) 1 point
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/southport-guiseley-volT6vjb/

Southport don't look like they'll survive the relegation battle - they're second to bottom, as many as nine points off safety, they have the worst defence in the league by far (as many as 84 (!) goals conceded in their 39 National League games so far - the second worst defence is Woking's with their 73 goals conceded in fourty games) and also the joint worst home defence (as many as 37 goals conceded in their nineteen home games so far), they've now lost ten of their last twelve games, only one of which was a win (1:2 to Wealdstone in the FA Trophy, 2:4 to North Ferriby, 1:3 at Bromley, 0:3 at Gateshead, 1:4 to Dag & Red, 0:0 at Woking, 0:1 to Chester, 2:4 at Maidstone, 1:2 to Torquay, 0:2 at Braintree, 3:5 at York and, finally, 1:0 vs tired, mid-table Boreham Wood last weekend), they've lost five consecutive home games before the Boreham Wood win (1:2 to Wealdstone in the FA Trophy, 2:4 to bottom-of-the-table North Ferriby 1:4 to Dag & Red, 0:1 to mid-table Chester, 1:2 to fellow strugglers Torquay), they're still missing the likes of skipper/key centre-back Thompson, first-choice midfielder Lussey (both are still out injured) and possibly top scorer Allen (who is supposedly back in training after missing the last four games, but could be some way off full fitness, as is the other candidate for the second slot up front Brodie), while first-choice keeper Norman and first-choice winger Meikle have both recently returned to their parent clubs, Fulham and rivals Barrow respectively, which means we'll probably see King between the sticks, Jack Higgins, Murray and White in their three-man defence, Ryan Higgins and McKeown as wing-backs, Stevenson, Nolan and Weeks in the middle of the park and Almond and unfit Brodie/Allen up front. That eleven don't really deserve to be favorites against much improved Guiseley at this moment in time if you ask me.

Guiseley have now only lost one of their last six or, if you want, two of their last ten (1:1 vs Eastleigh, 2:1 vs Sutton, 2:1 at promotion hopefuls Dag & Red, 1:2 to North Ferriby, 1:0 vs play-off chasing Barrow, 2:1 at Torquay, 1:0 vs play-off chasing Aldershot, 0:0 at Boreham Wood, 1:1 at play-off chasing Gateshead and, finally, 0:4 to play-off chasing Dover in a one-off horror show last weekend, which obviously helped making them industry's outsiders in this game), they're unbeaten in four away games, two of which were wins, they've won three of their last six away from home, only one of which was a defeat (2:1 at Macclesfield, 1:3 at Wrexham, 2:1 at Dag & Red, 2:1 at Torquay, 0:0 at Boreham Wood, 1:1 at Gateshead), they've already managed to beat Southport 2:1 at home back in October (it could've been a bigger win, but Southport keeper Norman who is now back with his parent club Fulham saved Rankine's late penalty) and, if you ask me, their expected team (Maxted between the sticks; Brown, Lawlor/Palmer, Lowe and Williams at the back; Walton/Lawlor, Hatfield and Purver in the middle of the park; Hurst/Asamoah and Preston on the flanks; Cassidy/Rankine up front) should be favorites away at Southport at this moment in time and not the other way around. Anything better than 2.50 for the away win looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

2.90 with Bet365...
2.89 with 5Dimes...
2.88 with SBO, BetVictor, Coral...
2.85 with Pinnacle, Marathon...
2.81 with 188bet...
2.80 with Will Hill...
2.75 with Ladbrokes, Unibet...
2.74 with 12bet/Dafabet...

(my odds: 2.50)
(best opening odds: 2.88 @Pinnacle)
(best opening odds with official bookmakers: 2.88 @Pinnacle)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM: 2.90 @Bet365)
(best odds at Saturday 10:30 AM with official bookmakers: 2.88 @SBO)
(recorded odds: 2.76 @Pinnacle, SBO)
(best closing odds: 3.40 @BetVictor)
(best closing odds with official bookmakers: 3.24 @Pinnacle)

I would've had the odds on Guiseley at 2.50. The best opening odds were 2.88 with Pinnacle and the best odds on Saturday at 10:30 AM were 2.88 with SBO (and 2.90 with Bet365), so the bet qualified for the official bet. The best odds sixty seconds after I've sent the e-mail were 2.76 with both Pinnacle and SBO, then they've shortened a bit more, then drifted out to 3.33 with Pinnacle half an hour before the kick-off and were 3.24 with Pinnacle (and 3.40 with BetVictor) just before the kick-off. This is why my results based on closing/kick-off odds are now outperforming my results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season - I really am recording the odds when they're at their worst and it only takes a few cases of odds (mostly on outsiders) drifting out and respective bets landing for the results based on closing odds to beat the results based on recorded odds in the long run.