OFFICIAL PICKS:
4/3 NL: Aldershot - (0) LINCOLN (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
4/3 NL: Gateshead - DAG & RED (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:0 (-1)
4/3 NL: Torquay - GUISELEY (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+2.02)
11/3 NL: (0) WOKING - Boreham Wood (1.64 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
11/3 NL: Bromley - NORTH FERRIBY (4.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:0 (-1)
18/3 NL: (0) ALDERSHOT - Sutton (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.76)
18/3 NL: (-0.75) GATESHEAD - Woking (1.79 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 2:1 (+1.58)
25/3 NL: (0) LINCOLN - Forest Green (1.63 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.52)
25/3 NL: GUISELEY - Dover (3.01 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:4 (-1)
25/3 NL: Wrexham - TORQUAY (4.59 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
10 picks
25 points staked
4-2-4
+3.88 point profit
15.5% ROI
6.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
March 2017 was my fifth consecutive profitable month and my 14th profitable month in the last 15 active months. Only one of the five one-point bets on outsiders landed for a -1.98 point loss with the bets on outsiders, but none of the five four-point asian handicap bets was a losing one (two were void) for a +5.86 points profit with the asian handicap bets. You won't get a complaint from me after a 15% ROI second-half-of-the-season month.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
18/3 NL: Barrow - (0) DAG & RED (2.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:1 (-1)
1 pick
1 point staked
0-0-1
-1.00 point loss
-100% ROI
A disappointing run with the unofficial last-minute picks continues. There was only one unofficial last-minute bet in March and it failed miserably for a one-point loss with these unofficial picks based on late team news.
Tuesday, 4 April 2017
Wednesday, 1 March 2017
February 2017 review
OFFICIAL PICKS:
4/2 NL: (0) BROMLEY - Torquay (1.42 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.68)
4/2 NL: Maidstone - (0) ALDERSHOT (1.67 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.68)
11/2 NL: Southport - (0) DAG & RED (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:4 (+2.04)
11/2 NL: Braintree - NORTH FERRIBY (6.53 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:0 (-1)
11/2 NL: GUISELEY - Eastleigh (3.00 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
11/2 NL: SOLIHULL - Sutton (2.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:0 (+1.88)
18/2 NL: Eastleigh - (0) TRANMERE (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.2)
18/2 NL: (0) WREXHAM - Aldershot (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
18/2 NL: Boreham Wood - YORK (3.58 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
25/2 NL: SOUTHPORT - Chester (2.60 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (-1)
25/2 NL: TORQUAY - Sutton (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (-1)
11 picks
26 points staked
5-0-6
+1.48 point profit
5.6% ROI
2.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
A disappointing ending to another profitable month (this was my 13th profitable month out of last 14 "active" months). After they've produced a +7.83 point profit (at a 391% (!) ROI) in January, the one-point bets on outsiders produced a -3.12 point loss in February, which is why the monthly profit was rather modest in the end (+1.48 point profit at a 5.6% ROI based on recorded odds, which - as I suppose most of you know by now - are the odds recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst) - the four-point asian handicap bets had a very good February with four out of five bets landing for a +4.6 point profit.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
11/2 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Woking (1.58 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:2 (+0.29)
11/2 NL: (-0.25) YORK - Maidstone (1.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-0.5)
2 picks
2 points staked
1-0-1
-0.21 point loss
-10.5% ROI
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks, but there was once again only a couple of bets. I have to admit I expected more from the unofficial last-minute picks based on late team news, but the season is far from over - there's nine more weekends + play-offs to go.
4/2 NL: (0) BROMLEY - Torquay (1.42 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.68)
4/2 NL: Maidstone - (0) ALDERSHOT (1.67 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.68)
11/2 NL: Southport - (0) DAG & RED (1.51 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:4 (+2.04)
11/2 NL: Braintree - NORTH FERRIBY (6.53 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:0 (-1)
11/2 NL: GUISELEY - Eastleigh (3.00 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
11/2 NL: SOLIHULL - Sutton (2.88 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:0 (+1.88)
18/2 NL: Eastleigh - (0) TRANMERE (1.55 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.2)
18/2 NL: (0) WREXHAM - Aldershot (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
18/2 NL: Boreham Wood - YORK (3.58 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
25/2 NL: SOUTHPORT - Chester (2.60 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (-1)
25/2 NL: TORQUAY - Sutton (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (-1)
11 picks
26 points staked
5-0-6
+1.48 point profit
5.6% ROI
2.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
A disappointing ending to another profitable month (this was my 13th profitable month out of last 14 "active" months). After they've produced a +7.83 point profit (at a 391% (!) ROI) in January, the one-point bets on outsiders produced a -3.12 point loss in February, which is why the monthly profit was rather modest in the end (+1.48 point profit at a 5.6% ROI based on recorded odds, which - as I suppose most of you know by now - are the odds recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst) - the four-point asian handicap bets had a very good February with four out of five bets landing for a +4.6 point profit.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
11/2 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Woking (1.58 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:2 (+0.29)
11/2 NL: (-0.25) YORK - Maidstone (1.60 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-0.5)
2 picks
2 points staked
1-0-1
-0.21 point loss
-10.5% ROI
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks, but there was once again only a couple of bets. I have to admit I expected more from the unofficial last-minute picks based on late team news, but the season is far from over - there's nine more weekends + play-offs to go.
Saturday, 25 February 2017
the "outstanding contribution to tipping" award + Pinnacle on their way back to the UK market
I'm proud to announce that I've just won the SBC "outstanding contribution to tipping" award, which is a "lifetime achievement honour chosen by the SBC team" (along with being voted the third best sports tipster in 2016 by the SBC members, but now I'm just bragging). To quote the SBC team,
"the SBC ‘Lifetime Achievement’ honour is designed to recognize those who have provided outstanding services to punters through tipping and is chosen by the Secret Betting Club team. This year’s very worthy award recipient is the football tipster, Skeeve, who since 2006 has been posting his lower-league football tips to great acclaim. Making a profit over the course of 1 football season is difficult enough but to do it over 10 consecutive seasons as Skeeve has done is a phenomenal achievement. Over the lifetime of his service, Skeeve has posted just under 1500 tips and made 674 points profit at 12.2% Return on Investment. It is not just his profit but the quality of customer service and his odds-settlement policy that also deserves merit as Skeeve has always played extremely fair by his members. Ensuring that you can often match, if not beat the advised profits he records on his website – a huge deal when you consider today’s betting markets and how they react to sharp money. Skeeve is well on course to enjoy his 11th consecutive profitable season and we can’t think of a worthier recipient for this honour. Here is to another decade of profit!"
2017 RESULTS SO FAR:
17 picks
44 points staked
+5.11 points profit
11.6% ROI
8.5% ROC
2016 RESULTS:
49 picks
121 points staked
+19.49 points profit
16.1% ROI
32.4% ROC
LAST THREE YEARS (MARCH 2014 - FEBRUARY 2017):
172 picks
511 points staked
+66.37 points profit
12.9% ROI
97.7% ROC
Anonymous posted a comment about Pinnacle and their continued absence from the UK market. I hope he's satisfied with my answer and I also hope Joseph Buchdahl isn't wrong about Pinnacle returning to the UK market as soon as next month!
Last but not least, congrats to Cassini - one of, if not THE, best bloggers around - on his 2259th blog post. It's not a typo - that's 2259 (update: 2261) blog posts.
Thursday, 23 February 2017
closing/kick-off odds (part one)
I'm horrible, I know - I've promised an article on closing/kick-off odds more than a month ago and now I'm going to split it into more than one part? Unbelievable. Unfortunately, as always at this time of year, there's plenty of something I like to call the "actual work", which means I have to try and keep the blog alive (among other things) in my so-called spare time - and you can't buy spare time.
Anyway, for starters, here's what Joseph Buchdahl wrote about the closing odds in one of his educational articles for Pinnacle:
Closing odds reflect the largest amount of information about matches, and the maximum number of opinions being expressed through wagering on that information, and hence are most likely to be the most efficient.
I don't think there's many, if any, who'd say that beating the closing odds at Pinnacle in the long run isn't an obvious sign of a good tipster - possibly not the only sign, but a well obvious sign. In that light, I've decided to take a closer look at the closing/kick-off odds for my official picks in the last six campaigns (starting with the 2010/11 season, which is when I've started to record all odds with a significant delay in the official stats and compare the pre-mail odds, recorded odds and the closing odds, and ending with the 2015/16 season - I'll write more about the current season as soon as it ends in May), along with the so-called "pre-mail" odds (those available before I send the pick, but at an extremely fixed moment in time, which I'll write more about in the next article, and days after those juicy opening odds which would - in all fairness - return the biggest theoretical profit by far, but at severe limits and odds movements in practice) and the so-called "recorded" odds (those recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst - I've experimented with various delays, never shorter than sixty seconds, in recording the odds since the 2010/11 season until I've settled with a sixty-second delay at the beginning of last season, which ensures that everyone who can take the bet straight away, at an extremely fixed moment in time, is able to beat the so-called "official" results).
2010/11 - 2015/16 (PRE-MAIL ODDS): +206.35 points profit (11.0% ROI)
2010/11 - 2015/16 (RECORDED ODDS): +157.93 points profit (8.4% ROI)
2010/11 - 2015/16 (CLOSING ODDS): +138.52 points profit (7.4% ROI)
I'll go into more detail in the next article (consider this an intro article to this very interesting topic), but beating the closing odds at Pinnacle in the long run? Check. However, my results based on closing/kick-off odds are now outperforming the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season (not by far, but still), which is a fairly interesting phenomenon (and another sub-topic I'll write more on in the next article). As I really do record the odds when they're at their worst, it probably isn't as bizarre as it may seem at the first glance, and - as I wrote in the 2016 review - "both the results based on pre-mail odds and the results based on kick-off/closing odds have outperformed the official results in 2016 - in most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting". There were eight cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and closing/kick-off odds in 2016. The odds drifted out (at least 10%) in seven of these eight cases and five of those seven bets landed (+4.67 points profit at a 32.2% ROI based on recorded odds; +7.12 points profit at a 49.1% ROI based on closing odds). The only odds-shortening (10% or more) bet landed for a +1.76 point profit based on recorded odds and a +1.2 point profit based on closing odds respectively.
Anyway, for starters, here's what Joseph Buchdahl wrote about the closing odds in one of his educational articles for Pinnacle:
Closing odds reflect the largest amount of information about matches, and the maximum number of opinions being expressed through wagering on that information, and hence are most likely to be the most efficient.
I don't think there's many, if any, who'd say that beating the closing odds at Pinnacle in the long run isn't an obvious sign of a good tipster - possibly not the only sign, but a well obvious sign. In that light, I've decided to take a closer look at the closing/kick-off odds for my official picks in the last six campaigns (starting with the 2010/11 season, which is when I've started to record all odds with a significant delay in the official stats and compare the pre-mail odds, recorded odds and the closing odds, and ending with the 2015/16 season - I'll write more about the current season as soon as it ends in May), along with the so-called "pre-mail" odds (those available before I send the pick, but at an extremely fixed moment in time, which I'll write more about in the next article, and days after those juicy opening odds which would - in all fairness - return the biggest theoretical profit by far, but at severe limits and odds movements in practice) and the so-called "recorded" odds (those recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst - I've experimented with various delays, never shorter than sixty seconds, in recording the odds since the 2010/11 season until I've settled with a sixty-second delay at the beginning of last season, which ensures that everyone who can take the bet straight away, at an extremely fixed moment in time, is able to beat the so-called "official" results).
2010/11 - 2015/16 (PRE-MAIL ODDS): +206.35 points profit (11.0% ROI)
2010/11 - 2015/16 (RECORDED ODDS): +157.93 points profit (8.4% ROI)
2010/11 - 2015/16 (CLOSING ODDS): +138.52 points profit (7.4% ROI)
I'll go into more detail in the next article (consider this an intro article to this very interesting topic), but beating the closing odds at Pinnacle in the long run? Check. However, my results based on closing/kick-off odds are now outperforming the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season (not by far, but still), which is a fairly interesting phenomenon (and another sub-topic I'll write more on in the next article). As I really do record the odds when they're at their worst, it probably isn't as bizarre as it may seem at the first glance, and - as I wrote in the 2016 review - "both the results based on pre-mail odds and the results based on kick-off/closing odds have outperformed the official results in 2016 - in most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting". There were eight cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and closing/kick-off odds in 2016. The odds drifted out (at least 10%) in seven of these eight cases and five of those seven bets landed (+4.67 points profit at a 32.2% ROI based on recorded odds; +7.12 points profit at a 49.1% ROI based on closing odds). The only odds-shortening (10% or more) bet landed for a +1.76 point profit based on recorded odds and a +1.2 point profit based on closing odds respectively.
Thursday, 2 February 2017
January 2017 review
I still owe you an article on the kick-off/closing odds and I'll be glad to publish it in a few days, but let me get the January 2017 review out of the way first.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
7/1 NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Southport (1.98 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:1 (+1.96)
14/1 NL: (-0.5) WREXHAM - North Ferriby (1.46 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
21/1 NL: (-0.75) MACCLESFIELD - Guiseley (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (-4)
21/1 NL: Southport - NORTH FERRIBY (5.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 2:4 (+4.70)
28/1 NL: (-0.25) EASTLEIGH - Woking (1.45 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (-4)
28/1 NL: Tranmere - DAG & RED (4.13 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:2 (+3.13)
6 picks
18 points staked
4-0-2
+3.63 point profit
20.1% ROI
6.0% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
A bad mini-run with the four-point asian handicap bets (-8) has been counteracted by a great mini-run with the one-point bets on outsiders (+7.83) and I doubt I'll see many, if any, more weekends with this kind of a scenario (the four-point asian handicap bet fails while the one-point outsider bet lands) in the next thirteen weeks (+play-offs). The bets on outsiders have produced a 391% ROI this month (!) and that's based on recorded odds - the Dag & Red odds have, for some reason, drifted out to 5.14 with Pinnacle by kick-off last weekend. All in all, a very good month - I'd have nothing against a 20% ROI each month, obviously.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
21/1 NL: York - (0) BARROW (1.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:1 (-1)
28/1 NL: (0) BROMLEY - Southport (1.49 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (+0.49)
2 picks
2 points staked
1-0-1
-0.51 point loss
-25.5% ROI
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks, but there was once again only a couple of bets. There should be more last-minute picks in February.
UNOFFICIAL LONG-TERM PICKS 2016/17 (PENDING):
NL: DAG & RED to be promoted to League Two (6.00 @Marathon) 1 point
The current best price is 5.00 with the likes of Marathon and Will Hill (the bet was advised in mid-September). Unfortunately, these unofficial long-term bets aren't available with the likes of Pinnacle and SBO.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
7/1 NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Southport (1.98 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:1 (+1.96)
14/1 NL: (-0.5) WREXHAM - North Ferriby (1.46 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
21/1 NL: (-0.75) MACCLESFIELD - Guiseley (1.71 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (-4)
21/1 NL: Southport - NORTH FERRIBY (5.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 2:4 (+4.70)
28/1 NL: (-0.25) EASTLEIGH - Woking (1.45 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (-4)
28/1 NL: Tranmere - DAG & RED (4.13 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:2 (+3.13)
6 picks
18 points staked
4-0-2
+3.63 point profit
20.1% ROI
6.0% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
A bad mini-run with the four-point asian handicap bets (-8) has been counteracted by a great mini-run with the one-point bets on outsiders (+7.83) and I doubt I'll see many, if any, more weekends with this kind of a scenario (the four-point asian handicap bet fails while the one-point outsider bet lands) in the next thirteen weeks (+play-offs). The bets on outsiders have produced a 391% ROI this month (!) and that's based on recorded odds - the Dag & Red odds have, for some reason, drifted out to 5.14 with Pinnacle by kick-off last weekend. All in all, a very good month - I'd have nothing against a 20% ROI each month, obviously.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
21/1 NL: York - (0) BARROW (1.72 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:1 (-1)
28/1 NL: (0) BROMLEY - Southport (1.49 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (+0.49)
2 picks
2 points staked
1-0-1
-0.51 point loss
-25.5% ROI
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks, but there was once again only a couple of bets. There should be more last-minute picks in February.
UNOFFICIAL LONG-TERM PICKS 2016/17 (PENDING):
NL: DAG & RED to be promoted to League Two (6.00 @Marathon) 1 point
The current best price is 5.00 with the likes of Marathon and Will Hill (the bet was advised in mid-September). Unfortunately, these unofficial long-term bets aren't available with the likes of Pinnacle and SBO.
Monday, 23 January 2017
2016 review
OFFICIAL PICKS (2016):
49 picks
121 points staked
25-5-19
+19.49 points profit
16.1% ROI
32.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)
30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)
6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)
27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)
27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)
5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)
5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1)
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1)
19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)
19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)
2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)
16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)
16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)
16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)
23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88)
5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)
22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
I think it's fair to say that 2016 wasn't a bad year at Skeeve Picks at all. Seven of the eight "active" months in 2016 were profitable (January, February, March, April, May, November and December were all profitable, while the only losing month was October with it's -0.74 point loss). The worst losing run was -8.4 between March 25 and April 9. The worst losing weekend (April 9) produced a six-point loss. Of the 25 "active" weekends in 2016, 19 were profitable (as were 30 of the last 37 "active" weekends, ending with the three consecutive profitable weekends so far in January 2017).
ASIAN HANDICAP BETS (2016):
30 picks
104 points staked
17-5-8
+10.22 points profit
9.8% ROI
9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)
30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)
27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)
5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)
25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)
2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)
23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)
30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88)
22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+12.6 points profit, 12.1% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+12.47 points profit, 11.9% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+10.22 points profit, 9.8% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were five cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the asian handicap bets are concerned:
9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
Drifts out to 1.98 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.78 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham dominate most of the game, except maybe for the very end when they have to play with ten men due to an injury after all three subs are already made, but it remains goalless.
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
Drifts out to 1.69 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.60 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Forest Green have a 2:0 lead by the half-hour mark.
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
Shortens to 1.30 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.45 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham win 4:0.
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
Drifts out to 1.97 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.84 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Aldershot deservedly win 1:0, albeit against ten men for more than half an hour.
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
Drifts out to 1.84 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.68 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Tranmere miss a first-half penalty, but find the winner after the break.
OUTSIDER BETS (2016):
19 picks
17 points staked
8-0-11
+9.27 points profit
54.5% ROI
9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)
13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)
5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1)
12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1)
19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)
16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)
16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)
22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+10.1 points profit, 59.4% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+10.55 points profit, 62.0% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+9.27 points profit, 54.5% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 3.09 - 3.02 - 2.97, which was the case with the Tranmere bet on April 23, or 3.06 - 2.95 - 2.97, which was the case with the Boreham Wood bet on April 16), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were three cases of significant (10% more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the bets on outsiders are concerned:
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
Drifts out to 4.31 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 4.08 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Woking deservedly win 3:1.
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
Drifts out to 3.90 with 12bet/Dafabet by kick-off (it was 3.27 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Braintree take the lead, Wrexham equalise and take the lead, but then Braintree equalise and find the winner.
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
Drifts out to 3.42 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 3.20 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Sutton are probably a bit better team in the opening half, while Barrow are probably a bit better team after the break, but it remains goalless.
49 picks
121 points staked
25-5-19
+19.49 points profit
16.1% ROI
32.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)
30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)
6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)
27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)
27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)
5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)
5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1)
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1)
19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)
19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)
2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)
16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)
16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)
16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)
23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88)
5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)
22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
I think it's fair to say that 2016 wasn't a bad year at Skeeve Picks at all. Seven of the eight "active" months in 2016 were profitable (January, February, March, April, May, November and December were all profitable, while the only losing month was October with it's -0.74 point loss). The worst losing run was -8.4 between March 25 and April 9. The worst losing weekend (April 9) produced a six-point loss. Of the 25 "active" weekends in 2016, 19 were profitable (as were 30 of the last 37 "active" weekends, ending with the three consecutive profitable weekends so far in January 2017).
ASIAN HANDICAP BETS (2016):
30 picks
104 points staked
17-5-8
+10.22 points profit
9.8% ROI
9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
9.1.2016. NL: Bromley - (0) SOUTHPORT (1.90 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
23.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.68 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:1 (+/-0)
24.1.2016. NL: Dover - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.72 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:2 (+2.88)
30.1.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Kidderminster (1.92 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 1:0 (+1.84)
6.2.2016. NL: Lincoln - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.74 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (-4)
13.2.2016. NL: Aldershot - (0) TRANMERE (1.50 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
20.2.2016. NL: Tranmere - (0) CHELTENHAM (1.95 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.8)
27.2.2016. NL: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT (1.78 @SBO) 4 points FT 0:1 (+3.12)
5.3.2016. NL: (-0.25) TORQUAY - Kidderminster (1.75 @Pinnacle) 4 ponts FT 3:2 (+3)
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
19.3.2016. NL: (-0.75) WREXHAM - Chester (1.85 @SBO) 4 points FT 3:0 (+3.4)
19.3.2016. NL: Welling - (0) GATESHEAD (1.56 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:1 (+2.24)
25.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) FOREST GREEN - Aldershot (1.49 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
1.4.2016. NL: (0) CHELTENHAM - Grimsby (1.65 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 3:1 (+2.6)
2.4.2016. NL: (0) FOREST GREEN - Wrexham (1.60 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) GRIMSBY - Eastleigh (1.59 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:0 (-2)
9.4.2016. NL: (-0.25) HALIFAX - Aldershot (1.80 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:2 (-4)
16.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Halifax (1.41 @SBO) 4 points FT 2:0 (+1.64)
23.4.2016. NL: Kidderminster - (-0.5) DOVER (1.72 @SBO) 4 points FT 1:1 (-4)
30.4.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Lincoln (1.47 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 3:1 (+1.88)
22.10.2016. NL: (-0.25) DAG & RED - Macclesfield (1.57 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:1 (-1)
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
5.11.2016. NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12.11.2016. NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
26.11.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @12bet/Dafabet) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
3.12.2016. NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17.12.2016. NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+12.6 points profit, 12.1% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+12.47 points profit, 11.9% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+10.22 points profit, 9.8% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 1.79 - 1.75 - 1.72, which was the case with the (-0.25) Torquay bet on March 5, or 1.72 - 1.65 - 1.69, which was the case with the (0) Cheltenham bet on April 1), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were five cases of significant (10% or more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the asian handicap bets are concerned:
9.1.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - (-0.5) CHELTENHAM (1.76 @12bet/Dafabet) 4 points FT 0:0 (-4)
Drifts out to 1.98 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.78 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham dominate most of the game, except maybe for the very end when they have to play with ten men due to an injury after all three subs are already made, but it remains goalless.
13.2.2016. NL: Halifax - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.53 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 0:2 (+2.12)
Drifts out to 1.69 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.60 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Forest Green have a 2:0 lead by the half-hour mark.
12.3.2016. NL: (-0.5) CHELTENHAM - Woking (1.44 @Pinnacle) 4 points FT 4:0 (+1.76)
Shortens to 1.30 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.45 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Cheltenham win 4:0.
29.10.2016. NL: (-0.75) ALDERSHOT - Guiseley (1.76 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
Drifts out to 1.97 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.84 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Aldershot deservedly win 1:0, albeit against ten men for more than half an hour.
19.11.2016. NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
Drifts out to 1.84 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 1.68 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Tranmere miss a first-half penalty, but find the winner after the break.
OUTSIDER BETS (2016):
19 picks
17 points staked
8-0-11
+9.27 points profit
54.5% ROI
9.1.2016. NL: Macclesfield - HALIFAX (3.75 @SBO) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.75)
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
6.2.2016. NL: Wrexham - FOREST GREEN (2.92 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:2 (-1)
13.2.2016. NL: Dover - GATESHEAD (4.25 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
27.2.2016. NL: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD (3.43 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:3 (+2.43)
5.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - GATESHEAD (4.78 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 3:1 (-1)
12.3.2016. NL: Dover - TRANMERE (2.87 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:0 (-1)
19.3.2016. NL: Tranmere - FOREST GREEN (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
26.3.2016. NL: Woking - KIDDERMINSTER (3.05 @SBO) 1 point FT 1:1 (-1)
16.4.2016. NL: Aldershot - BOREHAM WOOD (2.95 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:2 (+1.95)
16.4.2016. NL: Bromley - TORQUAY (3.00 @12bet/Dafabet) 1 point FT 0:2 (+2)
16.4.2016. NL: Chester - WELLING (4.67 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 4:0 (-1)
23.4.2016. NL: Eastleigh - TRANMERE (3.02 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.02)
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
5.5.2016. NL: Grimsby - (0) BRAINTREE (3.05 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 0:1 (+2.05)
22.10.2016. NL: Lincoln - EASTLEIGH (3.45 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19.11.2016. NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
17.12.2016. NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
Both the results based on pre-mail odds (+10.1 points profit, 59.4% ROI) and the results based on kick-off/closing odds (+10.55 points profit, 62.0% ROI) have outperformed the official results (+9.27 points profit, 54.5% ROI). In most cases, recorded odds will be a bit shorter than the pre-mail odds and the kick-off/closing odds will be either a bit shorter or a bit longer than the recorded odds (for example, 3.09 - 3.02 - 2.97, which was the case with the Tranmere bet on April 23, or 3.06 - 2.95 - 2.97, which was the case with the Boreham Wood bet on April 16), but it only takes a few bets to make things more interesting. There were three cases of significant (10% more) odds movement between recorded and kick-off/closing odds in 2016 as far as the bets on outsiders are concerned:
9.1.2016. NL: Wrexham - WOKING (3.97 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 1:3 (+2.97)
Drifts out to 4.31 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 4.08 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Woking deservedly win 3:1.
23.4.2016. NL: Wrexham - BRAINTREE (3.10 @Pinnacle) 1 point FT 2:3 (+2.1)
Drifts out to 3.90 with 12bet/Dafabet by kick-off (it was 3.27 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Braintree take the lead, Wrexham equalise and take the lead, but then Braintree equalise and find the winner.
12.11.2016. NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
Drifts out to 3.42 with Pinnacle by kick-off (it was 3.20 with Pinnacle before the e-mail was sent), Sutton are probably a bit better team in the opening half, while Barrow are probably a bit better team after the break, but it remains goalless.
Tuesday, 17 January 2017
December 2016 review
It looks like I've managed to celebrate the 10th birthday of Skeeve Picks after all - by taking a one-month break from blogging. I'm not going anywhere though, so I can already announce the next couple of posts I plan to finish and publish in the next five or six days, the first of which will be the 2016 review and the second of which will be an article on the increasingly popular topic of kick-off/closing odds. I've been recording and comparing the pre-mail odds (those available before I send the pick to my clients), the recorded odds (those recorded with a fair delay, when they're usually at their worst) and the kick-off (or, if you want, closing) odds since the beginning of the 2010/2011 season, which means I now have quite a lot of data to analyze, so I'm looking forward to finishing and publishing that article.
As far as December is concerned, there were only three official picks which produced a modest +0.26 point profit at a 5.7% ROI.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
3/12 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17/12 NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
17/12 NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
3 picks
4.5 points staked
1-1-1
+0.26 point profit
5.7% ROI
0.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
December definitely wasn't the busiest month, but it was still the seventh profitable month out of eight "active" months in 2016 - more on that in the upcoming 2016 review. Also, I've now switched back to the usual (or, if you want, full) stakes for the second half of the season (January-May), so four-point asian handicap bets, one-point bets on outsiders and one-point unofficial last-minute bets.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
3/12 NL: (-0.25) BROMLEY - Maidstone (1.77 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (+0.38)
17/12 NL: Southport - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.49 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:3 (-0.5)
2 picks
1 point staked
1-0-1
-0.12 point loss
-12.0% ROI
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks in December, but as you can see, there was only a couple of bets.
As far as December is concerned, there were only three official picks which produced a modest +0.26 point profit at a 5.7% ROI.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
3/12 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - York (1.38 @SBO) 2 points FT 1:0 (+0.76)
17/12 NL: (0) YORK - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:0 (+/-0)
17/12 NL: Lincoln - TRANMERE (2.96 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
3 picks
4.5 points staked
1-1-1
+0.26 point profit
5.7% ROI
0.4% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
December definitely wasn't the busiest month, but it was still the seventh profitable month out of eight "active" months in 2016 - more on that in the upcoming 2016 review. Also, I've now switched back to the usual (or, if you want, full) stakes for the second half of the season (January-May), so four-point asian handicap bets, one-point bets on outsiders and one-point unofficial last-minute bets.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
3/12 NL: (-0.25) BROMLEY - Maidstone (1.77 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (+0.38)
17/12 NL: Southport - (0) EASTLEIGH (1.49 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:3 (-0.5)
2 picks
1 point staked
1-0-1
-0.12 point loss
-12.0% ROI
A small loss with the unofficial last-minute picks in December, but as you can see, there was only a couple of bets.
Tuesday, 13 December 2016
Lincoln City 2016/17
Instead of redesigning the old website, joining twitter or at least getting drunk, I've decided to analyze twenty FA Trophy games for the Skeeve Picks service's 10th birthday yesterday, so I thought I'd take a break from that and share a sample of my work in the form of everything there is to know about the only National League team that wasn't in FA Trophy action this weekend (their match away at Shaw Lane was postponed after the Northern Premier League Division One South - which is three tiers down the pyramid - outfit allegedly fielded a suspended player in the last (qualifying) round of the competition, which was followed by an FA investigation), Lincoln City. Here's to the next ten! :)
LINCOLN CITY 2016/17
Farman/Walton
Wood/Beevers – Raggett/McCombe/Fixter – Waterfall/Howe/Weatherell – Habergham
Hawkridge/Anderson – Power/Whitehouse/Everington – Woodyard/Miles/Wright – Arnold/Muldoon/Hodge
Robinson/McMenemy/Acar – Rhead/Marriott/Simmons
Latest managerial changes:
1/5/2016 Moyses out
14/5/2016 Cowley in
Currently injured:
Beevers (right-back, long-term)
Currently suspended:
Raggett (centre-back, two more games)
Transfers in:
11/6 Woodyard (mid, Braintree)
21/6 Miles (mid, Braintree)
23/6 Habergham (left-back, Braintree)
27/6 Marriott (striker, Stevenage)
20/7 Margetts (striker, Tranmere)
27/7 Arnold (winger, Grimsby)
3/8 Raggett (centre back, Dover)
15/8 Anderson (winger, Peterborough, loan until Jan 1)
1/9 Bonne (striker, Colchester, loan until Oct 26, recalled early on Oct 13)
13/9 Champion (mid, Barnet, loan until Dec 14, recalled early on Oct 19)
8/10 Robinson (striker, Port Vale)
21/10 Whitehouse (mid, Nuneaton)
Transfers out:
23/5 Brown (def, Boston)
23/5 Diagne (def, Hemel Hempstead)
23/5 Grant (keeper, Corby)
23/5 Sparrow (mid, Sorrento)
23/5 Hearn (striker, Alfreton)
9/6 Tempest (mid, Nuneaton)
15/6 C.Robinson (striker, North Ferriby)
26/6 Bush (def, Chelmsford)
31/8 Margetts (striker, joint top scorer, 5 goals, Scunthorpe)
26/9 Stanley (mid)
Currently out on loan:
Everington (mid, Buxton)
Wright (mid, Grantham)
Acar (striker, Spalding)
Simmons (striker, Halifax)
Miles (mid, Boston Utd)
Hodge (mid, Telford)
Recently returned from loan:
Howe (def, Southport, loan until Nov 25, returned, FA Cup-tied)
Chronology:
14.5. manager Cowley switches from Braintree along with his brother and assistant
23.5. Brown, Diagne, Grant, Sparrow and Hearn are all released / Farman, Beevers, Hawkridge, McCombe, Power, Rhead, Waterfall, Wood, Bush, Muldoon and Stanley are already under contract / Everington, Hodge, Howe, Simmons and Wright are offered new terms / youngsters Acar and Walton are offered their first professional terms / Robinson and Tempest are invited to pre-season training
30.5. top scorer Rhead's transfer request was accepted
11.6. Braintree's midfielder Woodyard signs a one-year deal
21.6. now attacking midfielder Miles also follows Cowley from Braintree and signs a one-year deal
23.6. and now left-back Habergham also follows Cowley and signs a two-year deal
26.6. versatile first-choice centre/right-back Bush leaves to sign for National League South outift Chelmsford
27.6. striker Marriott signs a one-year deal after a season dogged with injuries with Stevenage
20.7. striker Margetts signs a one-year deal after being at rivals Tranmere last season
27.7. winger Arnold signs a two-year deal after leaving League Two newcomers Grimsby
2.8. top scorer Rhead signs a new two-year deal, even though the club initially accepted his transfer request in late May
3.8. centre-back Raggett joins on a two-year deal from rivals Dover
15.8. winger Anderson joins from League One outfit Peterborough on loan until January
31.8. joint top scorer with five goals so far Margetts joins League One outfit Scunthorpe on transfer deadline day
1.9. striker Bonne joins on loan from League Two outfit Colchester until October 26
13.9. experienced midfielder Champion joins on a 93-day loan from League Two outfit Barnet
8.10. former Premier League striker Robinson joins after leaving League One outfit Port Vale in the summer
21.10. midfielder Whitehouse joins from National League North outfit Nuneaton on a deal until the end of next season
LINCOLN CITY 2016/17
Farman/Walton
Wood/Beevers – Raggett/McCombe/Fixter – Waterfall/Howe/Weatherell – Habergham
Hawkridge/Anderson – Power/Whitehouse/Everington – Woodyard/Miles/Wright – Arnold/Muldoon/Hodge
Robinson/McMenemy/Acar – Rhead/Marriott/Simmons
Latest managerial changes:
1/5/2016 Moyses out
14/5/2016 Cowley in
Currently injured:
Beevers (right-back, long-term)
Currently suspended:
Raggett (centre-back, two more games)
Transfers in:
11/6 Woodyard (mid, Braintree)
21/6 Miles (mid, Braintree)
23/6 Habergham (left-back, Braintree)
27/6 Marriott (striker, Stevenage)
20/7 Margetts (striker, Tranmere)
27/7 Arnold (winger, Grimsby)
3/8 Raggett (centre back, Dover)
15/8 Anderson (winger, Peterborough, loan until Jan 1)
1/9 Bonne (striker, Colchester, loan until Oct 26, recalled early on Oct 13)
13/9 Champion (mid, Barnet, loan until Dec 14, recalled early on Oct 19)
8/10 Robinson (striker, Port Vale)
21/10 Whitehouse (mid, Nuneaton)
Transfers out:
23/5 Brown (def, Boston)
23/5 Diagne (def, Hemel Hempstead)
23/5 Grant (keeper, Corby)
23/5 Sparrow (mid, Sorrento)
23/5 Hearn (striker, Alfreton)
9/6 Tempest (mid, Nuneaton)
15/6 C.Robinson (striker, North Ferriby)
26/6 Bush (def, Chelmsford)
31/8 Margetts (striker, joint top scorer, 5 goals, Scunthorpe)
26/9 Stanley (mid)
Currently out on loan:
Everington (mid, Buxton)
Wright (mid, Grantham)
Acar (striker, Spalding)
Simmons (striker, Halifax)
Miles (mid, Boston Utd)
Hodge (mid, Telford)
Recently returned from loan:
Howe (def, Southport, loan until Nov 25, returned, FA Cup-tied)
Chronology:
14.5. manager Cowley switches from Braintree along with his brother and assistant
23.5. Brown, Diagne, Grant, Sparrow and Hearn are all released / Farman, Beevers, Hawkridge, McCombe, Power, Rhead, Waterfall, Wood, Bush, Muldoon and Stanley are already under contract / Everington, Hodge, Howe, Simmons and Wright are offered new terms / youngsters Acar and Walton are offered their first professional terms / Robinson and Tempest are invited to pre-season training
30.5. top scorer Rhead's transfer request was accepted
11.6. Braintree's midfielder Woodyard signs a one-year deal
21.6. now attacking midfielder Miles also follows Cowley from Braintree and signs a one-year deal
23.6. and now left-back Habergham also follows Cowley and signs a two-year deal
26.6. versatile first-choice centre/right-back Bush leaves to sign for National League South outift Chelmsford
27.6. striker Marriott signs a one-year deal after a season dogged with injuries with Stevenage
20.7. striker Margetts signs a one-year deal after being at rivals Tranmere last season
27.7. winger Arnold signs a two-year deal after leaving League Two newcomers Grimsby
2.8. top scorer Rhead signs a new two-year deal, even though the club initially accepted his transfer request in late May
3.8. centre-back Raggett joins on a two-year deal from rivals Dover
15.8. winger Anderson joins from League One outfit Peterborough on loan until January
31.8. joint top scorer with five goals so far Margetts joins League One outfit Scunthorpe on transfer deadline day
1.9. striker Bonne joins on loan from League Two outfit Colchester until October 26
13.9. experienced midfielder Champion joins on a 93-day loan from League Two outfit Barnet
8.10. former Premier League striker Robinson joins after leaving League One outfit Port Vale in the summer
21.10. midfielder Whitehouse joins from National League North outfit Nuneaton on a deal until the end of next season
Thursday, 1 December 2016
November 2016 review
There were six official picks in November, three of which landed for a modest +0.42 point profit (4.6% ROI). If nothing else, it was my 6th profitable month (of the seven active months so far) in 2016. As far as the 2016/17 season is concerned, it's still very early days - and I'm still waiting for the first outsider bet to land. As last season, we'll be switching back to full stakes (four points per asian handicap bet, one point per outsider bet) in January.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
5/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12/11 NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12/11 NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19/11 NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
6 picks
9 points staked
3-0-3
+0.42 point profit
4.6% ROI
0.7% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
Fun fact: even though the official picks are officially still -0.32 point down for the season so far, the results based on kick-off odds are already in green (+0.57). It seems like the results based on kick-off odds might outperform the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season, but as I record the odds sixty seconds after I send the pick (and with three bookmakers only, which is how I record the kick-off odds as well), that's not really breaking news anymore. Conclusion: you should definitely be able to beat the official results.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
12/11 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester (1.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 0.5 point FT 2:2 (-0.5)
12/11 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Braintree (1.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: (-0.75) BARROW - Solihull (1.84 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (+0.21)
19/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) SUTTON (1.65 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Maidstone (1.60 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (+0.3)
26/11 NL: (0) SOUTHPORT - Braintree (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:5 (-0.5)
6 picks
3 points staked
2-0-4
-1.49 point profit
-49.7% ROI
Not a good month with the unofficial last-minute picks, which are based on late team news and sent at least ten minutes before the kick-off, but as I said, it's very early days and I'm confident this set of picks will be profitable in the long run. These picks are currently -1.05 point down for the season so far - not exactly a disaster and, as with the official picks, we'll be switching to full stakes in January (one point per unofficial last-minute pick). Non-fun fact: it's not an error, Southport have indeed lost 4:5 to Braintree (who were without both first-choice centre-backs Elokobi (who was their key defensive player lately, but returned to parent club Colchester) and Goodman (out injured) and the first-choice replacement centre-back Ashton who was also out injured) after being 3:1 up.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
5/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) WREXHAM (1.83 @SBO) 2 points FT 0:0 (-2)
12/11 NL: Macclesfield - (0) FOREST GREEN (1.70 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.4)
12/11 NL: Sutton - BARROW (3.02 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:0 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: Braintree - (-0.25) TRANMERE (1.61 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 0:1 (+1.22)
19/11 NL: Boreham Wood - SOUTHPORT (5.01 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.5) TRANMERE - Torquay (1.40 @Pinnacle) 2 points FT 2:1 (+0.8)
6 picks
9 points staked
3-0-3
+0.42 point profit
4.6% ROI
0.7% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
Fun fact: even though the official picks are officially still -0.32 point down for the season so far, the results based on kick-off odds are already in green (+0.57). It seems like the results based on kick-off odds might outperform the results based on recorded odds for the fourth consecutive season, but as I record the odds sixty seconds after I send the pick (and with three bookmakers only, which is how I record the kick-off odds as well), that's not really breaking news anymore. Conclusion: you should definitely be able to beat the official results.
UNOFFICIAL LAST-MINUTE PICKS:
12/11 NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester (1.70 @12bet/Dafabet) 0.5 point FT 2:2 (-0.5)
12/11 NL: (-0.25) WREXHAM - Braintree (1.72 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 0:1 (-0.5)
19/11 NL: (-0.75) BARROW - Solihull (1.84 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (+0.21)
19/11 NL: North Ferriby - (-0.5) SUTTON (1.65 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:1 (-0.5)
26/11 NL: (-0.75) LINCOLN - Maidstone (1.60 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 2:0 (+0.3)
26/11 NL: (0) SOUTHPORT - Braintree (1.78 @Pinnacle) 0.5 point FT 4:5 (-0.5)
6 picks
3 points staked
2-0-4
-1.49 point profit
-49.7% ROI
Not a good month with the unofficial last-minute picks, which are based on late team news and sent at least ten minutes before the kick-off, but as I said, it's very early days and I'm confident this set of picks will be profitable in the long run. These picks are currently -1.05 point down for the season so far - not exactly a disaster and, as with the official picks, we'll be switching to full stakes in January (one point per unofficial last-minute pick). Non-fun fact: it's not an error, Southport have indeed lost 4:5 to Braintree (who were without both first-choice centre-backs Elokobi (who was their key defensive player lately, but returned to parent club Colchester) and Goodman (out injured) and the first-choice replacement centre-back Ashton who was also out injured) after being 3:1 up.
Wednesday, 30 November 2016
twitter: appendix
People are still talking about Skeeve Picks over at twitter and, as much as I'd love to talk to Darran directly, I don't have the bloke's e-mail address (mine is skeevepicks at gmail dot com), so here's another post (hopefully the last one) on the topic.
Here's what's been said in the meantime:
Darran: the best non league tipster there has ever been posted their tips for free on the punters lounge forum which he should know well as I am told he started off their. If he was making enough money to make a living out of it then he wouldn't need to sell tips in my view. 10 seasons profit is very good but I still don't believe this is his only job as he doesn't to my eye make enough of a profit to sustain a living. I never said I was better than him more the point that I would be much better value for money. For 500 euros I would be expecting tips all season long and way more profit than he is making. As for putting coral up I just state whoever has the best price. The companies he uses are small firms who I suspect no one who follows me has an account for so utter pointless
SBC: you need to speak with him about this not me.
Darran: if he was so good he would struggle to get on anywhere especially on such a niche market. fair play he is well researched and just being in profit is a fine achievement
SBC: What I would suggest is you speak with him directly about this. I am merely passing on his blog post as requested
Darran: no doubt he will read the tweets as someone clearly tipped him off.
Charlie: Such a bitter man, Darren. So unsubtle too...
Darran: not bitter at all. He is welcome to his say as I am mine. Not sure why you are getting involved though
Charlie: You're always sniping at others involved in same field. You don't own the non-league niche so don't know why you act like it.
Darran: I don't think that at all. Only people I question are ones I don't think are telling the whole truth
Charlie: Sure, you're tone on here suggests otherwise. Where's your results anyway?
Darran: don't keep results. People can either follow me or not. If I felt writing previews were a waste of time I wouldnt do them
Charlie: You've the temerity to question a professional when you don't even bother keeping results? Hello amateur hour
Darran: I'm not questioning his results more what he offers for a very large amount of money.
Charlie: "I'd be much better value for money" - how? You don't even know how good or bad you are. It's basics. Christ.
Darran: being free helps. No one would follow me of I lost and the fact I end up with money in my betting accounts come the end of the season tells me I'm in profit. If I lost money I wouldn't even bother writing the previews as I wouldn't want people to follow me and it would be a waste of time writing them. I only do it to help people make money
Charlie: You're not getting it. If you'd tracked results, I'd follow you. To even brand yourself a tipster w/out results in laughable. You're just a bloke who writes a blog with bets, you're not a tipster.
Darran: fair enough your welcome to your opinion. Like I say I am free so don't go chasing readers. also racing post have tipsters yet they never publish their stats either
Charlie: They do, annually.
Darran: no they don't. Never seen any profit or loss from any racing or sport tipsters in the paper.
Charlie: They do.
As much fun as this has been, it's taken way too much time already, so I'll just comment on the key bits:
Darran: the best non league tipster there has ever been posted their tips for free on the punters lounge forum which he should know well as I am told he started off their
I'm familiar with the Punters Lounge, but have never posted there. I was a resident tipster on the ex-Punters Paradise forum back in 2007 though.
Darran: If he was making enough money to make a living out of it then he wouldn't need to sell tips in my view. 10 seasons profit is very good but I still don't believe this is his only job as he doesn't to my eye make enough of a profit to sustain a living.
And there's the good old "why would you sell tips if you're a good tipster?" gem of a question again. Well done.
Darran: As for putting coral up I just state whoever has the best price. The companies he uses are small firms who I suspect no one who follows me has an account for so utter pointless
Here's a new slogan for Pinnacle - winners welcome, so utter pointless.
Darran: if he was so good he would struggle to get on anywhere especially on such a niche market.
Has Darran ever heard of winners-welcome bookmakers?
And all this from a fellow "indie music lover, especially Blur". Modern life is rubbish. :(
Charlie: Where's your results anyway?
Darran: don't keep results. People can either follow me or not.
First of all, I have nothing against twitter. I get that we now live in a fast and furious world and that we sometimes don't even have the time for those 140 characters, but as Skeeve Picks clients know, I probably wouldn't even be able to say "hi everybody" in less than 140 characters, so I think I'll stay away from twitter for the time being.
Anyway, the guys from the Secret Betting Club have just tweeted about my service's upcoming 10th birthday (December 12) and a free trial I've decided to offer to their members (and my ex-clients) to celebrate the birthday and their tweets have caught some attention. One of the people who felt the need to comment was my non-league tipping colleague Darran who is apparently sharing his non-league picks for free and struggling to understand why on earth would I charge for my hard work. Here's how that conversation went:
SBC: Great news just in - SBC members can enjoy a free trial with non league tipster Skeeve FREE for the whole of December. Details on site soon
Darran: is he any good? Very rare to see a non-league tipster you have to pay for
SBC: Indeed, he is good, no doubt due to the hard work and study he puts in. This is his 10th year of tipping
Darran: strange I haven't come across him before then if he has been tipping for so long. Is he on here?
SBC: We have been tracking and reporting on him for several years. Not active on social media
Darran: so where has he posted his tips previously? Just interested as I tip on non-league for free so interested to hear about others
SBC: Tips posted via email. His website is http://skeevepicks.com/ and also featured by @12Xpert
Darran: cheers will have a closer look when I get chance. Prob better to describe him as a national league tipster as only covers 1 league
SBC: Yes probably - most people are more familiar with the term non-league rather than 'national league' . Force of habit
Darran: Must admit I think the guy is a rip off. Yes he makes a profit, but he costs a fortune for what he offers. Also I struggle to believe he is a full time punter just punting on the National League especially given he doesn't do the whole season
SBC: would have to respectfully disagree having proofed and verified his record for several years. Several reviews om SBC site
Darran: 500Euros is a hell of a lot of money to be paying in my view esp when I am free. He clearly puts in a lot of work though
Charlie: Quite cute that you're not even tactical about your jealousy that others successfully tip and punt the non-league
Darran: I know bullshit when I see it though & he would not be able to make a full time living just punting on the national league
Charlie: The lady doth protest too much, methinks. Appreciate there's many more with outstanding expertise in the same field, fella.
Darran: would you pay 500 euros for what he offers.?
Charlie: Dude, just accept it's a competitive area of expertise and some are probably better at what they do than you. No shame in that
Darran: It isnt that competitive an area as very few focus on non league. Given I am free and he costs a small fortune it isnt really a competition anyway. If I charged then it would be a competition but I never would
Charlie: Just because you don't know them or aren't aware of them, doesn't mean they dont exist. What's your P&L/results like?
I don't know Charlie, but I really like his comments and questions and, like Charlie, I am still waiting for Darran to answer Charlie's question about his past results.
If I'm not wrong, Darran is currently sharing his non-league tips for free over at Fighting Tips. As the page dedicated to his non-league picks is basically wiped clean each time he advises new bets so that you can only see the current picks and not a single past result, it really is a good question. Here's what will be on the page until Darran advises the weekend picks:
Maidstone v Eastleigh
I see no reason not to carry on opposing Maidstone who were easily beaten by Lincoln on Saturday and with teams below them winning they are now only 2 points clear of the relegation zone. Eastleigh put in a stinker themselves at the weekend when losing 3-0 at home to Chester. It was a case of lots of possession but a lack of quality in front of goal which cost Eastleigh dear. It was a lack of goals which cost them at times last season as well and I am surprised that it isn’t an area Ronnie Moore has tried to strengthen as he must know it is a weak point. Maidstone are there for the taking though and Moore will be desperate to get a reaction and if they are to play a part in the title race they have to get 3 points here. Eastleigh have only lost twice on their travels although the fact they have drawn 6 is a minor concern, but I think the 3G pitch will suit their style of play and Maidstone have only won twice at home all season. Coral’s 6/5 looks a nice price.
York City v Guiseley
After putting Guiseley up a couple of weeks ago to win at Dover I made a mental note not to back them away from home again as they struggled against a side who had played less than 48 hours previously. Rules are made to be broken though and I have to back them here to beat a York side who look in a right state. I was certainly glad I put Bromley up on Saturday and York were terrible in a 3-0 defeat. Obviously there is still plenty of time for them to get out of the mess they are in, but I am not sure how Gary Mills is going to get in the players he needs given their is clearly little money available to strengthen. The fact they are odds on for a bottom four finish tells you that the bookies don’t expect them to get out of it. Guiseley are also odds on for the drop, but they certainly look more capable of survival than York do at the minute. Their home form is solid enough and they had a cracking 3-1 win over in form Boreham Wood on Saturday. The issue is their away form and no wins, 1 draw, 10 defeats with just 6 goals scored tells its own story. I would imagine though that they are putting their focus into their home games and this match offers a rare chance of actually gaining an away 3 points. I put Guiseley up when they won the reverse of this fixture and that was their first win of the season and at Coral’s 5/2 it is well worth a bet of lightening striking twice. York look so bad at the moment and Guiseley look the better side.
Tips
Eastleigh 2.5pts
Guiseley 1pt
I see no reason not to carry on opposing Maidstone who were easily beaten by Lincoln on Saturday and with teams below them winning they are now only 2 points clear of the relegation zone. Eastleigh put in a stinker themselves at the weekend when losing 3-0 at home to Chester. It was a case of lots of possession but a lack of quality in front of goal which cost Eastleigh dear. It was a lack of goals which cost them at times last season as well and I am surprised that it isn’t an area Ronnie Moore has tried to strengthen as he must know it is a weak point. Maidstone are there for the taking though and Moore will be desperate to get a reaction and if they are to play a part in the title race they have to get 3 points here. Eastleigh have only lost twice on their travels although the fact they have drawn 6 is a minor concern, but I think the 3G pitch will suit their style of play and Maidstone have only won twice at home all season. Coral’s 6/5 looks a nice price.
York City v Guiseley
After putting Guiseley up a couple of weeks ago to win at Dover I made a mental note not to back them away from home again as they struggled against a side who had played less than 48 hours previously. Rules are made to be broken though and I have to back them here to beat a York side who look in a right state. I was certainly glad I put Bromley up on Saturday and York were terrible in a 3-0 defeat. Obviously there is still plenty of time for them to get out of the mess they are in, but I am not sure how Gary Mills is going to get in the players he needs given their is clearly little money available to strengthen. The fact they are odds on for a bottom four finish tells you that the bookies don’t expect them to get out of it. Guiseley are also odds on for the drop, but they certainly look more capable of survival than York do at the minute. Their home form is solid enough and they had a cracking 3-1 win over in form Boreham Wood on Saturday. The issue is their away form and no wins, 1 draw, 10 defeats with just 6 goals scored tells its own story. I would imagine though that they are putting their focus into their home games and this match offers a rare chance of actually gaining an away 3 points. I put Guiseley up when they won the reverse of this fixture and that was their first win of the season and at Coral’s 5/2 it is well worth a bet of lightening striking twice. York look so bad at the moment and Guiseley look the better side.
Tips
Eastleigh 2.5pts
Guiseley 1pt
Darran's lost both of these bets, which obviously happens sometimes (I'm traditionally staying away from the midweek games, but that's another story), but that's far from being the point I'll try and make. First of all, there's the stake - two and a half points on Eastleigh (who have subsequently lost the game 1:2) and one point on Guiseley (who have subsequently only managed to share points in a 1:1 draw). That's absolutely fine as Darran probably saw more value in the Eastleigh bet and I'm sure 2.5 and 1 aren't just random numbers thrown in here. However, if you're advising a particular stake for one bet and a particular stake for the other, people who are reading your picks and previews should know why those numbers and not some other. A table with past results would be helpful, as would the recommended betting bank.
Then there's the bookmaker. Believe it or not, but Darran quoted the Coral odds for both of his midweek bets and I wouldn't be surprised if he sometimes quotes the StanJames odds or the BetVictor odds. All of these are fine if you're a mug punter or, in other words, bookies' wet dream, but if you're beating bookmakers on a regular basis (have I mentioned my ten consecutive profitable seasons yet?), surely you won't be welcome at the likes of Coral, StanJames or BetVictor for long. Skeeve Picks clients definitely aren't able to bet with those bookmakers.
Anyway, there's plenty of things Darran wrote I would like to comment on, so let me try and go step by step.
Darran: is he any good? Very rare to see a non-league tipster you have to pay for
The best things in life may be free, but the most profitable and hard-working tipsters shouldn't be.
Darran: 500Euros is a hell of a lot of money to be paying in my view esp when I am free. He clearly puts in a lot of work though
Thanks Darran! I do. And if it's too much money, there's always plenty of free tipsters around.
Darran: I know bullshit when I see it though & he would not be able to make a full time living just punting on the national league
Well, you can obviously choose not to believe me, but I've been doing this for ten years and only this for the last eight. Have I mentioned my ten consecutive profitable seasons yet? :)
Darran: would you pay 500 euros for what he offers.?
I certainly would. As I wrote many times, find me a football tipster with a 12% ROI after ten consecutive profitable seasons and I'm in.
Darran: It isnt that competitive an area as very few focus on non league. Given I am free and he costs a small fortune it isnt really a competition anyway. If I charged then it would be a competition but I never would
I get that. If you want to make money with your tips on a regular basis, you have to spend as much time on research/analysis as you would on your 8 to 4 job, if not more.
I've visited Darran's twitter account a found a very indicative exchange of thoughts between him and a guy named Craig:
Craig: Eastleigh solid bet as you say. Guiseley value in dogfight, ill follow you in. Is miller back for Dover? If so, value @ 2/1!
Darran: I would imagine so although wouldn't know for certain
Miller wasn't just back for Dover's game at Sutton yesterday - he was in the starting eleven on Saturday at Macclesfield, but the game was abandoned shortly after the break due to fog, which is probably why Darran wasn't sure about it. And that's the key if you ask me - as this is my full-time job, I can't afford not to be sure about bits of team news like that (after all, Miller's the National League top scorer). I can't afford not to analyse every single game both a priori and a posteriori. This is my job and I can't do it any other way but the best it could be done to my understanding. Here's an example of my preview.
Anyway, I'm glad the service has caught some attention at twitter, but I really don't think I should join that social network. If I can't say half of what I wanted in more than 2000 characters, imagine how frustrated I'd be trying to say something in less than 140.
Also:
Charlie: Just because you don't know them or aren't aware of them, doesn't mean they dont exist. What's your P&L/results like?
Saturday, 12 November 2016
unofficial last-minute pick for November 12
NL: (-0.75) TRANMERE - Chester (min. odds: 1.55) 0.5 point
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/tranmere-chester-UBUq16WR/#ah;2;-0.75;0
Chester were on an amazing clean-sheet run not so long ago (they'd kept as many as seven consecutive clean sheets - 0:0 at Aldershot, 2:0 vs Guiseley, 1:0 vs Braintree, 0:0 at Wrexham, 5:0 vs Dover, 1:0 at North Ferriby, 1:0 vs Torquay), but they're now without a win in the last four (0:1 at Southport in the FA Cup which was a deserved home win, 1:1 at York thanks to 92nd minute equaliser, 0:0 at Macclesfield which would've been a home win on most days as Macclesfield hit the woodwork thrice and, finally, 2:5 to Lincoln which was a proper kick in the teeth after that run of clean sheets), they've only managed to beat arguably the worst team in the league North Ferriby away from home so far (truth be told, most of their away games were draws and not defeats), they have the third worst away attack in the league with only six goals scored in nine away games so far and they have more than a couple of players unavailable or doubtful - midfielder George is definitely out suspended (and both centre-back Killock and left-back Horwood should still be out injured), but I hope they'll also still be withouth their first-choice keeper Roberts and first-choice right-back Vassell. If George (who is definitely out due to his lengthy ban), Roberts (who is most probably out after picking up a knock a few weeks ago which apparently isn't as bad as it seemed) and Vassell (who's only missed three games so far this season, all of which Chester lost, conceding ten goals in the process) are all out, I'm in!
verdict: Chester first-choice right-back Vassell is indeed still out injured, along with first-choice keeper Roberts and suspended midfielder George, so I'm in!
current best odds:
1.70 with 12bet/Dafabet...
1.67 with SBO...
1.63 with Pinnacle, Bet365...
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